Predict my NYC Marathon time (and training feedback!)

He says 5:40 pace because six miles (and with rests, too) is just a small snippet of a marathon, not even a quarter of a marathon. The marathon is a long race and you need exposure to faster paced training over long distances...or (in the polarized view) you need chunks of running at significantly faster than MP. I can do the 6x1 @ 5:55, and perhaps even do it without rests—straight...and I am not thinking sub-2:40 for my upcoming marathon. Again, all the best to you in NYC.

It is great you still run after college with your other things going on. And you might break 2:40. Someday 2:30, sure is possible.

Here is the kind of workout that would give us more confidence- 5 mi wu, 4 x 3 mi at marathon pace with 1 mi steady recovery.

Good luck!

Old no i mean exprncd wrote:

It is great you still run after college with your other things going on. And you might break 2:40. Someday 2:30, sure is possible.

Here is the kind of workout that would give us more confidence- 5 mi wu, 4 x 3 mi at marathon pace with 1 mi steady recovery.

Good luck!

Thanks!! I'll definitely add that workout to my rolodex.

I'm assuming this winter I'll be doing a lot of my workouts on the local indoor track (which is a decent one, at my local Big Ten university, but still an indoor track). Anyone have any good marathon track workouts?

I think the thing is you don't necessarily have to put in a ton more mileage if you don't want to get to your natural talent level, but if you want to be doing the best you can at the MPW you're putting in, then you should at least be running those repeats at your correct fitness level. 2 mile repeats at your lactate threshold are standard in marathon training, and your LT is more like 5:40 than 5:55. If you can break 2:40, you should be able to run 5:55 for those 6 miles straight as a longer tempo run within your training, not broken up into mile repeats.

I wouldn't bet against you since you have run 2:45 on lower mileage, but those workouts are not indicative of sub 2:40 shape. The women whom I coach who are seeking sub 2:45 (the women's Olympic Trials standard) typically do workouts like 6 x 1 mile at about the same pace as you were running that workout (a touch under 6:00) with :70 rest. For them, that was threshold pace as they were running anywhere from 16:35 on the track to 17:20 on the roads for the 5k.

My biggest concern about that workout (and, more importantly, all of the other similar workouts) is not that the rest was too long or even that it was too slow, but rather that I don't think it actually did anything to help you adapt physiologically to be better prepared for race day. Given your overall fitness as indicated by your faster times at shorter distances, that is much slower than your tempo/threshold pace, so you got no adaptation on that front (arguably the most important adaptation for marathon training). I really don't know that you became much better prepared, if at all, as a result of those workouts. The bit of work at marathon pace might be helpful from a threshold standpoint if it was long enough, but my guess is that it wasn't long enough, so the only real benefit that you got from it was locking into pace some.

So you are essentially going into this race untrained (in fact, I might even argue that your college 5k training made you better prepared for marathon training than your training for this cycle did as you at least improved your vo2max and lactate threshold in the course of that training) and you are relying upon whatever natural ability you have to get you through the race. That is a tough proposition for the marathon, especially when your volume is fairly low. Compound that with a tough course, and I just don't see sub 2:40 as being likely. You have some running talent, so I am definitely not ruling it out, but if someone held a gun to my head and forced me to bet on or against you, I would bet against you.

I hope I am wrong. Either way, you should have perfect race conditions, plenty of people to run with, and you get to run one of America's great races, so have fun with it and report back.

I agree, Smoove..and I must say that you osund a little outsiderunner-ish.

OP: Regarding workouts...Here is an example of a workout I did earlier this year, on Apr. 23. Since I eschew conventional workouts and intervals, here is my version, and I call these runs “flyers.” Since this was a shorter one (under 10 miles), I would tend to call this a little flyer, though it was run at a fast pace. I went 6.5 in 38:31.1,,,5:55.6 overall pace, splitting 6:35, 6:13, 5:57, 5:49, 5:38, 5:34, 2:45. When done, my watch showed 5:25.8 for my fastest mile segment, and that I closed the last 10k in 36:38.5 and the last 5k in 17:25.6.

Your best workout was a 7 mile tempo at 6:05 pace - and you think you can run 26 miles at ~6 min pace?

My prediction is 2:48

I am in similar shape but did a lot more miles in training than you - I did an 8 mile tempo at 6:04 pace.. and laid down a mile in 4:44. I am shooting for a 2:50 marathon.

Interesting input here...

I recently laid down a 20-mile tempo at 6:21.8 pace.

While I have great appreciation for you OR, I don't think I sound too much like you in my comments as they were intended to emphasize very specific purposes for workouts, which isn't very much like what you do at all.

Revised

160goal wrote:

RunnerSam wrote:

I guess more mileage is an obvious catchall advice. include marathon specific workouts, workout twice a week.

examples:

Interval Workouts

4x2mi @HMP

3x3mi @MP-10s/mi

2x4mi @MP-5s/mi

4mi 3mi 2mi 1mi @ MP MP HMP HMP

3x(2mi, 1mi) (HMP, HMP-10s/mi)

LongRun Workouts

10ez 10@ MP

Long & Steady LR (MP +30s/mi)

-RunnerSam

This is super helpful, I'll definitely be doing these through the winter in training for Boston. How long is the Long&Steady?

The two Long&Steady workouts I did this cycle were 18 and 20 miles. I guess anything between 16-22 would be OK.

Also, to clarify, I suggested workouts twice a week. I am only suggesting one of the two workouts being from the list (or similar). I would say the Long&Steady and 10ez10MP would be ok to do the same week as one of the interval workouts.

I basically like to follow: two hard efforts + LR every week during a buildup (I do skip LR now and then). Sometimes the LR includes a hard effort so 5 days are easy and only two are hard (one of which is also a LR).

Hey 160,

As it happens, we have the same PR in the marathon, but I was somewhat older (late 20s to your just out of college - I'm now in my early 40s), running higher mileage (mostly in the 70s and 80s to your 50s and 60s), and significantly slower at shorter distances (16:30s/27:30s to your 15:20/25:30). So, from my perspective, it looks like you have a good deal of untapped potential at the marathon, and with if you stick with it I wouldn't be at all surprised to see you run under 2:30 down the road. Whether you run 2:40 at New York this weekend is another question, not necessarily because of anything to do with your training so much as the fact that New York can be very challenging both tactically and logistically and is just not a great PR course in general. And the marathon is just unpredictable, so it's hard to say.

As far as your training goes in general, I think you're doing a number of things that I see as being positive. First, it looks like you were able to get in very consistent and consistently progressive training during a time when it sounds like you had a lot going on in your life. Second, it seems like you've been able to recognize the limits of your own time and energy and not overdo things (wish I were that smart...). Third, while I respect the perspectives of other posters, I personally think you were wise to put the emphasis on building and sustaining a higher volume (for you) while keeping the workouts relatively moderate. You're young and you have a strong speed background, so it seems to me like this was not a bad way to go not just for the sake of life balance but for long-term development in the marathon. If this was a significant step forward in terms of consistent volume, that in itself was the most important thing you could have done. In general, mileage plus moderate workouts with quality long runs is not a bad approach to the marathon.

As you're aware, though, if you want to keep improving your performance, you will need to keep improving your training. My own suggestion would be to keep that progression gradual: take the next logical step for you. (Emphasis on "for you.") So, this time you averaged something like low 60s for weeks 9-15, with a peak of 70. Maybe next time you might look to average mid 60s with a peak of 75. This time you did one workout a week. Maybe next time you might look to do something like one and a half (a full workout, perhaps building to something a little more demanding, plus a lighter complementary workout - probably something on the slightly quicker side). And similarly, the next logical step with the long run - probably the next most important factor next to overall volume (I don't remember what you said you were doing for the long runs).

One final thought: while the indoor track can be useful for shorter stuff, I would not recommend it for marathon-type workouts.

Hope this is helpful, and good luck this weekend!

Hey wanted to give folks an update! All of you had super helpful feedback and I definitely look forward to implementing it in my training for Boston.

How NYC went: incredible, best race of my life. Went out in 1:17:00 and held on to finish sub-2:36:00.

And yet most of you were dead right about needing to do more workouts, I look forward to including those this winter. Thanks again everyone!

Very impressive, glad I was wrong about my prediction

I think you will be able to run an even better time at Boston once you train a little more specifically for the marathon.

-RunnerSam