East Africans are not genetically superior

You are lying! Kenyans are noble savages and they wouldn't touch aspirine! (Sarcasm)

Several years ago, I was denounced here on this forum for suggesting that doping was rampant in East Africa. Where are all those defenders of the natural African talent now? I see that only one was left (Mr. Canova). BTW, I don't know what to think about African runners from the 1970s and 1980s, but if you leave your bubble of naivety, you should seriously ask yourself what was behind the miraculous return of Kenyans in Seoul 1988. Their government wanted the lost track prestige back, and as you know, governments usually prefer the shortest way that is possible. This does not mean that I would deny their natural talent. But all the media hype around doped Kenyans and Ethiopians disgusted me a long time ago. The flood of these EPO-loaded "genetic marvels" destroyed track in Europe, and there are no indications that the situation should change soon.

You replied to me, but completely failed to address any point. Why are you responding to me with red herrings?

The point I made is that Kenyans truly dominate in events from 5000m to the marathon, and world cross country, and you keep coming back to marginal Kenyan superiority in 800m/1500m as being marginal.

Some corrections, comments and questions:

- Ngugu’s name is Ngugi.

- Ngugi was not banned for blood doping.

- The circumstances surrounding the ban were itself controversial, and the ban was unanimously overturned by a 23-man council.

- Ngugi’s ban was in 1993, after an attempted test in Feb. 1992 — the very first OOC test ever conducted by the IAAF in Kenya, conducted in English.

- Which other ‘80s cross-country stars? Maybe you will have better luck.

Once again, in 1981, Ethiopia beat a strong American team, and Kenya took third, beating the rest of the world, before European coaches and managers and long before EPO.

Are you seriously suggesting that in 1981, that life-long high-altitude residents from Ethiopia and Kenya were blood doping better than the rest of the world?

If East Africans were blood doping in the ‘70s and ‘80s, how can we make any sense of the other poster’s point of Kenya achieving 3:32 only in 1995 and the alleged connection to EPO?

You can’t expect much truth from a poster whose various handles are synonymous with lying.

Several years ago, I was denounced here on this forum for suggesting that doping was rampant in East Africa. Where are all those defenders of the natural African talent now? I see that only one was left (Mr. Canova). BTW, I don't know what to think about African runners from the 1970s and 1980s, but if you leave your bubble of naivety, you should seriously ask yourself what was behind the miraculous return of Kenyans in Seoul 1988. Their government wanted the lost track prestige back, and as you know, governments usually prefer the shortest way that is possible. This does not mean that I would deny their natural talent. But all the media hype around doped Kenyans and Ethiopians disgusted me a long time ago. The flood of these EPO-loaded "genetic marvels" destroyed track in Europe, and there are no indications that the situation should change soon.

You may have suggested doping was rampant, but rampant is one of those words failing to be all that precise. Is rampant 10%? 90%?

According to several prevalence estimates (with limited data and visibility), the “rampant” doping in East Africa seems to be about the worldwide average — if the best performances could be achieved with doping, we should see East African caliber performances around the world, across the decades.

You may have asked for rational arguments, but you have failed to present any evidence and rational arguments that necessarily connects the superior East African performances to doping, and/or disconnecting it from physiological and psychological factors unique to regional subsets of East Africans.

Coevett is answering himself under different handles?

rekrunner wrote:

According to several prevalence estimates (with limited data and visibility), the “rampant” doping in East Africa seems to be about the worldwide average —

You know, when you say utter garbage like this, you loose any pretence you had of being some kind of fair minded contrarian 'voice of reason' here.

150+ doping busts is not the worldwide average. I'd take actual doping convictions despite third rate anti-doping standards, over some unscientific straw polls at the Pan Arab EPO Games quoted again and again by Casual Observer.

I wonder how anybody watching the Olympics, and looking at the medal table, can take seriously the possibility that Kenyans are 'genetically superior' for distance running?

The third day has almost been completed, and of course, Kenya has zero medals. Probably every single medal they will win will be in distance running. A country like GB, with half the population, will win dozens of medals in maybe 20 different sports AND still a good possibility of winning at least one or two ,medals in middle-distance (we have already won the silver medal in the men's triathlon, which is 1/3rd distance running).

Actually, the triathlon serves as a very relevant example. Alex Yee is an elite class distance runner DESPITE training for the Triathlon. He's also now officially the second best Triathlete in the world. I don't know of any top class Kenyan triathlete, despite it consisting of 1/3 distance running. It appears the 'advantage' a Kenyan has over the distance part, isn't big enough to negate the disadvantage he apparently has at the cycling and swimming parts.

Who knows how good Alex Yee could be at distance running if he devoted himself to that discipline alone? But unlike Kenyans it seems, he had a choice. Does the Kenyan 5K champion have a genetic advantage over Alex Yee at distance running, or does Alex Yee have a genetic advantage over the Kenyan 5K champion at cycling and swimming?

Kenyans/East Africans have supposedly a clear genetic advantage at distance running. Yet it is some mysterious magical ingredient that is specific to running, and not any other aerobic sport such as cycling, swimming, or any number of sports in which 'cardio' plays a huge part, such as boxing etc.

This is very unlike the widely assumed genetic advantage that West African ancestry athletes appear to have for the sprints, and which very obviously carries over into a multitude of sports from NFL to boxing.

Nobody quite can pin down what that very running specific advantage for Kenyans is, except in loose and vague terms such as 'efficiency'. It seems to me, that East Africans running form can vary tremendously. For example, to compare Rudisha to Nijel Amos. What possible 'gene' can both possibly share that expresses itself in quite wildly different running forms, and yet in both cases is somehow obviously more 'efficient' than any white runner could hope to match?

Lets stick to the marathon then, and suppose that 90% of the top 100 marathon runners are either Kenyan or Ethiopian.

1% is British lets say on average over a couple of decades period.

Kenya + Ethiopia population 250 million. young population so let's say 100 million 18- 30. Almost zero obesity, so number of young people able to do sports is perhaps at least 90 million. The number 1 REALISTIC sporting goal for the vast majority of them is distance running. It is the only sport either nationality appears to be able to compete in truly world class terms. And the marathon is the financially most lucrative for them. So then let's say that the 'marathon talent pool' in Kenya/Ethiopia is 80 million.

Now lets speculate about GB. Population 65 million, aging population, so let's say 15 million 18 - 30. Rampant obesity, but we'll be generous and say that 80% of them 'can potentially train hard for sport'. So that makes the sporting pol around 12 million. Youngsters in the UK have over 100 different sports to pursue, and realistically hope they might have the talent to become international class at. Obviously football is at the top, followed by sports such as Rugby, etc, but as we see at the Olympics, the list is almost endless.

But marathon running is definitely near the bottom.

I'd say to be realistic, 1% of British 18 - 30 who would have any inclination to pursue marathon ambitions as a full-time goal, and that is VERY generous.

So 1% of 12 million is 120,000 (which again shows how generous the 1% figure is).

So we're left with a Kenyan/Ethiopian marathon talent pool of 80 million.

And a GB marathon talent pool of 120,000 (and again,this is nothing to do with genetics - other than the possibility that East Africans are near unique in being genetically disadvantaged in almost every sport save for distance running).

So from those figures alone, you wouldn't really expect a British runner to make the top 1,000 list. And if we assume most of the rest of Europe is the same, we would expect maybe 4 or 5 British/Europeans in the top 1,000 list each year, with very rarely one European in the top 100.

But in 2019, Sandra Moen of Norway was at 44, and Callum Hawkins was at 122.

And this is all before you factor in the RAMPANT and proven doping epidemic in East Africa, involving a cheap and simple endurance drug that knocks as much as 10 minutes off a runner's marathon time.

BTW, Japan has a far higher proportion of elite marathon runners, despite having an aging population not much bigger than the biggest European countries. North Africa too has a higher proportion. Does anybody think that the Japanese and North Africans are genetically more advantaged than Europeans, or is it more likely down to simply participation numbers (and the related obesity figures)?

Of course Japan has biological disadvantages in the aggregate. We all know short little gals & guys may thrive as 60m & 100m sprinters. We know short little gals & guys may thrive as Marathoners and ultra-runners. We know all Kenyans are not built like Tim Cheruiyot but enough Kenyans are. If we wanted to, we could post 10,000 photos of various Kenyan men with similar builds as Cheruiyot's build. You won't find 100 Japanese men built like Cheruiyot.

GB has half the population of Kenya?

What do you gain from such blatant lies, Coevett?

So your argument for why East Africans kick GB's butts in any track distance over 1500m is that GB has a talent pool of 120k and that Kenya/Ethiopia have a talent pool of 80 million? You think that is a sound analysis?

answerz wrote:

So your argument for why East Africans kick GB's butts in any track distance over 1500m is that GB has a talent pool of 120k and that Kenya/Ethiopia have a talent pool of 80 million? You think that is a sound analysis?

Absolutely.

Coevett wrote:

some unscientific straw polls at the Pan Arab EPO Games quoted again and again by Casual Observer.

LOL. "some unscientific straw polls". Of course neither you nor rekrunner appreciate the results of that scientific study, supported by IAAF and WADA, peer-reviewed by more experts, and ultimately published in a reputable scientific journal. You just have a huge aversion to facts.

Be that as it may:

1) That scientific study also included the 2011 Worlds, the results of which were separately listed.

2) It did not differentiate between the nations.

3) In a different scientific study, Kenya was shown to be about average in in-competition blood-doping during the 2011 and the 2013 worlds, and Ethiopia was worse than average.

4) Most Kenyan bans are not about blood-doping.

5) I am not aware of any study showing that all "doping in East Africa seems to be about the worldwide average".

Number 33 wrote:

answerz wrote:

So your argument for why East Africans kick GB's butts in any track distance over 1500m is that GB has a talent pool of 120k and that Kenya/Ethiopia have a talent pool of 80 million? You think that is a sound analysis?

Absolutely.

Then you are even more lost and deluded than I thought. No wonder you lie constantly.

Ngugi was banned for refusing to take an anti-doping test. Yes, in your world that has nothing to do with doping, in the real world, and according to WADA, it's a doping offence. That's why he was banned.

The fact that this was the first ever attempted anti-doping test in Kenya rather does support my claim that blood doping could have taken place there in the 80's.

Stop attributing claims to me that I did not make. I did not say that the 80's Kenyan team's success was due wholly to blood doping, I pointed out that doping was likely already going on. Doping + massive participation numbers = domination.

As far as Kenyans not running faster than 3:32 before EPO, yes that's true and I agree with the point he's making. You just said that testing did not exist in Kenya before 1992. 1500m runners would be subjected to far more testing on the European circuit than Kenyan xcountry teams in the 80's..

1989 world xcountry championships.

1. John Ngugi banned for refusing Kenya's first ever doping test.

2. Paul Kipkoech died suddenly at age 32 of unknown causes.

I apologize, believe me I do. Rest assured that I would not allow myself to lecture an experienced PED user. I understand that you have tried many of them, which makes all your brouhaha about doping in track insincere, and makes me ponder whether I'm arguing against a sane individual.

I do also understand that you are even capable of going against your own conclusions made under the veneer of a more mundane identity ( It is not anymore the "protein ratio" that matters when judging about the height potential of population ?).

Your right, it was better when track was dominated by ladies in their early 30s, capable of even more ridiculous improvements through the sole power of vitamin B12 and "hard" training.

BTW, East Africans could disappear from Track for all I care, the 'damage' that they have done is limited to an area of a niche sport which consists in running in circle.

If doping is what really bothers you, may I suggest you stop watching all sports ?

What kind of argument is that ? You don't really understant that I was trying to counter your arguments by showing you that White US sprinters were not radically slower than their European counterparts ?

It's you after all who even went to disparage the physique of US White males and who decided that the US should import superior Nordic males, you don't remember ?

Probably, not as rich as you, I mean 'Czech Guy' , 'Sports Physiologist', 'The Voice Sanity', 'The voice of Reason', and God knows how many other sock-puppet accounts, you have used.

(BTW, unshamedly parroting what you have read in "Norton & Olds" or "Ackland et al" while jibber jabbering about somatotypes, does not make you a sport physiologist any more than I am the Queen of England.)

Look at the annual Top 10 around the onset of EPO use (1995). Why was it only Africans, who benefitted from it? Certainly, it should be no problem for non-Africans to reach Cram's and Coes's 3:29, if they used EPO en masse. Why did we have to wait until 1997, when any suspicious performances of non-Africans emerged? I think that there is only one reasonable answer: The level of non-African competition was very low. In contrast, we observed a boom of EPO doping in cycling. This can tell you, where all the endurance talent headed.

1994

1. Nourradine Morceli ALG 1970 3'30"61

2. Venuste Nyongabo BUR 1973 3'30"66

3. Azzeddine Sediki MAR 1970 3'32"71

4. Mohamed Suleiman QAT 1969 3'32"73

5. Hicham El Gerrouji MAR 1974 3'33"61

6. Abdi Bile SOM 1964 3'33"63

7. Atoi Boru KEN 1973 3'34"12

8. Gennaro Di Napoli ITA 1968 3'34"42

9. Moses Kiptanui KEN 1971 3'34"44

10. Benson Koech KEN 1974 3'34"72

1995

1. Nourradine Morceli ALG 1970 3'27"37

2. Venuste Nyongabo BUR 1973 3'30"78

3. Hicham El Gerrouji MAR 1974 3'31"16

4. William Kemei KEN 1969 3'31"40

5. Azzeddine Sediki MAR 1970 3'31"48

6. Steve Holman USA 1970 3'32"01

7. Eric Dubus FRA 1966 3'32"37

8. Gennaro Di Napoli ITA 1968 3'32"94

9. Mohamed Suleiman QAT 1969 3'33"37

10. William Tanui KEN 1964 3'33"69

1996

1. Hicham El Gerrouji MAR 1974 3'29"05

2. Nourradine Morceli ALG 1970 3'29"50

3. Venuste Nyongabo BUR 1973 3'30"09

4. Laban Rotich KEN 1969 3'31"06

5. William Tanui KEN 1964 3'31"20

6. Stephen Kipkorir KEN 1970 3'31"87

7. Elija Maru KEN 1976 3'32"07

8. Fermin Cacho ESP 1969 3'32"58

9. Moses Kigen KEN 3'32"84

10. Benson Koech KEN 1974 3'32"90

1997

1. Hicham El Gerrouji MAR 1974 3'28"91

2. Fermin Cacho ESP 1969 3'28"95

3. Venuste Nyongabo BUR 1973 3'29"18

4. Daniel Komen KEN 1976 3'29"46

5. Laban Rotich KEN 1969 3'30"13

6. Nourradine Morceli ALG 1970 3'30"23

7. John Kibowen KEN 1969 3'30"44

8. William Tanui KEN 1964 3'30"58

9. Steve Holman USA 1970 3'31"52

10. Robert Andersen DEN 1972 3'31"52

1998

1. Hicham El Gerrouji MAR 1974 3'26"00

2. Laban Rotich KEN 1969 3'29"91

3. John Kibowen KEN 1969 3'30"18

4. Noah Ngeny KEN 1978 3'30"34

5. Daniel Komen KEN 1976 3'30"49

6. Reyes Estevez ESP 1976 3'30"87

7. Isaac Viciosa ESP 1969 3'30"94

8. David Lelei KEN 1971 3'31"53

9. Driss Maazouzi FRA 1969 3'31"59

10. Sammy Rono KEN 1974 3'31"89

Coevett, several factors must be taken into account:

- Kenyans are small and skinny. There are not many sports except distance running, where such a body type would be advantageous. Actually, their physique is positioned on the periphery of Olympic sports. They usually pick up medals only in distance running and welterweights in boxing.

- Physical requirements in cycling differ, based on various disciplines. On flat terrain, tall stature (absolute mechanical power) is the best, whereas in the mountains, short and skinny physiques (with the highest RELATIVE mechanical power) dominate. So we can predict that Kenyans could make good climbers, but they would lose on flat terrain.

- Swimming requires moderately muscular and tall physiques that are very far from the Kenyan range.

- Cross-country skiing is a similar example. It requires quite mesomorphic physiques (because you involve both arms and legs).

- The typical marathon runner is 170 cm tall. This is an ideal height from the view of running economy and optimal heat dissipation, and it does not differ from the height of long distance runners. However, a marathoner has a more mesomorphic somatotype because he needs to compromise running economy with the need to store glycogen in his muscles. The earlier his glycogen stores are depleted, the earlier he must slow down because the production of energy from fat is considerably slower. As a result, a marathoner looks like a miniature of a 1500 m runner.

- The average height of Europeans is getting farther and farther from the ideal stature of long distance runners. In contrast, the height of Kenyans stagnates (because their growing population cannot keep up with diminishing resources). And East Asians also remain short because their low-quality diet lacks dairy proteins.

- The body type of East Africans has interesting characteristics: The taller they are, the more ectomorphic they are. (This is an adaptation to hot climate that increases relative body surface.) Interestingly, this ideally fits the physical requirements in the 5000-10 000 m, but it gets them even farther from the usual requirements of most sports.

I’m not sure you are the best judge of credibility.

Your 150+ busts is over a period of nearly two decades, across a large athlete population. To compare with other nations, it would be better to express that as a percentage of busts across the actual athlete populations.

You talked about “blood doping” in the ‘70s and ‘80s, and “DopeKemboi” about the importance of EPO and Kenya and 1995 and 3:32 for 1500m. So we are not talking about steroids of the ‘70s and ‘80s, or whereabouts failures, or test refusals, but about blood doping causing fast performances.

When we look at these 150+ doping busts which one are blood doping, that number drops to about 25 — over nearly two decades. Most of them are no-name athletes. When we talk about high performances, the list dries up, and we talk about 4-5 athletes. This is a small percentage of the total athlete population.

I don’t ever argue about Kenyan “genetics”. Genetics is only one factor of about a dozen, if not more, that explains performance, excluding doping and doping testing.

I think the main problem of non-Africans is that they are 20 pounds too heavy, as mature healthy adults.

My idea of Kenyan dominance is to look at the events where they dominate — long distance running.

Maybe if more Kenyans had bicycles, and roads, they would excel in cycling too.

Not sure where you want to go with your GB and population analysis. GB’s population grew in the last few decades, and they can’t keep up with Steve Jones from the ‘80s, except for one Brit born in Somalia. Many countries world-wide have doped, and only two non-East African has gone sub-2:05, one in a tailwind-storm, and Kengu Suzuki this year. What is the number of sub-2:06? Two more? Osaka and Moen? And that is considering all countries, worldwide, all time.

When you say “RAMPANT and proven doping epidemic in East Africa”, what is your proof that doping is significantly worse in East Africa than average, as a percentage of competing athletes?

When you say “cheap and simple endurance drug that knocks as much as 10 minutes off a runner's marathon time”, where is the proof of that? Why aren’t more non-Africans beating Steve Jones? When I counted back a couple years ago, there were 183 East Africans, 6 North Africans, and 12 from the rest of the world, that could beat Steve Jones. If EPO could bring up to 10 minutes to the marathon, we wouldn’t be talking about only 18 non-East African athletes worldwide all-time, and then by only up to a minute or minute and a half.

(BTW, unshamedly parroting what you have read in "Norton & Olds" or "Ackland et al" while jibber jabbering about somatotypes, does not make you a sport physiologist any more than I am the Queen of England.)

Do you still want to pretend that you know what's going on? Do you have any concrete objections? If your only arguments consist of emotional bla-bla-bla, then you shouldn't be surprised that I won't respond to it.

P.S.: Congratulations to your fast white 100 m sprinter. Probably the first one since the 1960s.