wejo wrote:
In getting ready for the podcast we did on Berlin and Copenhagen I went through the half fields of Copenhagen and was amazed at how many guys come out of nowhere to run faster than the American record at the half.
There is little incentive for some of these guys to run the track. Yes there are drugs, but I don't think it's that simple. 3:38/8:30 steeplers guys in the US don't become 59 minute guys for the half. I'm just curious what your thoughts are.
Here are the Kenyans with very little results who are running very very fast at the half (Results are from
http://www.tilastopaja.org/so if I say no results I mean no results there)
Jorum Lumbasi Okombo KEN 20 years old 58.48 4th at RAK this year. 18th at World Half but 58:48 for 2nd last year. No results prior to last year
Mangata Ndiwa KEN 59.07 30 years old, ran 13:05 in 2009 and then no results from 2010-2015. 3rd at African 5k in 2016 and 59:07 for 2nd in Italy this year in debut
Daniel Kipchumba Ken 59:06 21 yrs old Results show up in 2016 for him. He was steepling (8:30) and then runs 59:06 to defeats Ndiwa in only half this year
Not to mention Erick Kiptanui who is 28 and had no results until 2016 (he ran 3:37 that year at altitude). This year he ran 58:42 in his 2nd half. He's 2 for 2 in his life at the half. Perhaps I'll reach out to Canova to see what Kiptauni did before 2016. I just can't believe a guy runs 3:37 in his first year at 26.
I'm statistically-minded about these things and I'm stuck on a problem at work so let me see...
I think the interesting thing would be to see how common this phenomenon is across the years.
In other words, is this a common trend, or a special year?
Let me look at the fastest all-time half marathons:
http://www.alltime-athletics.com/mhmaraok.htmLooks like 5 of the top 50 were run in 2018, 6 were run in 2017, 3 were run in 2016, 1 in 2015, 5 in 2014. 5+6+3+1+5 = 20 performances of the top 50 came in the past 5 years. (For reference, it looks like 5 of the top 50 were run in 2006 or earlier, so 45/50 were run since 2007.)
Going back to these guys who ran a top 50 time in the past 5 years, I've heard of only two: Guye Adola (2014), and Geoffrey Kamworor (3x in top 50 since 2014), and that's it. So 4 out of the 20 performances came from guys I've heard of. But *at the time they were run*, I definitely wouldn't have heard of Guye Adola when he ran his first half -- he only really made headlines with his recent marathon. Kamworor, iirc, was basically a half marathon specialist before he switched to the marathon, I wouldn't have heard of him in his debut either. So that's 20/20 performances in the past 5 years in the top 50 all-time in the half marathon that came from guys I'd never heard of before their break-out half marathon time.
Now look at the rest of the top half marathon list (all-time), how many of these performances came from guys I've heard of: The answer is about half (24-25 out of 52). But lots of them became household names (for runner nerds) before running their fast half-marathons. Tadese/Gebrselassie/Tergat moved up from the track; looks like Makau and Kipsang ran fast times in the half before the full; Mutai made his name in the marathon first.
So my quick take is that there does indeed seem to be a recent trend towards throwing down some crazy times at the half marathon distance before moving on to other events. Comparing this to the top 10K all time list, the fastest times are definitely a lot older, most of them run closer to the turn of the millenium:
http://www.alltime-athletics.com/m_10kok.htm. Ditto 5k:
http://www.alltime-athletics.com/m_5000ok.htmSo maybe some of these guys will turn into the next Adola/Kamworor/Kipsang :)
FWIW, a 59:07 half marathon is "worth" a 12:51 5K or a 26:48 10K according to various online calculators.
PS -- The list is unbelievably dominated by Kenyans and Ethiopians, and Tadese (Eritrea). The first person from a different country? Hendrick Ramaala, with the 87th fastest performance! The first person not of African descent (this excludes Farah, some Moroccans, and a Bahraini Kenyan)? Marilson dos Santos, with the 165th fastest time.
PPS -- Apologies for any dumb mistakes.