On average it will take about 275 years of serious training, which is why most people cannot achieve it.
On average it will take about 275 years of serious training, which is why most people cannot achieve it.
Let me throw out several scenarios:
1. 16 yo male, running 6 months, coach has him a 5k TT and he hits 16-flat. Never run a serious race, participated in a few school XC races.
a. gets good training from experienced coach - likely cracks 15 within the next 6-24 months, given good race opportunities
b. dabbles with running and other sports, doesn't get serious about XC until college - cracks 15 either late freshman year or sometime in his second year
c. gets questionable training but stays serious - may crack 15, if really lucky, in 6-24 months, or may never crack 15:50
2. 20 yo female, currently training with a college distance / XC team, has been running since early teens
a. continues training and racing through college, with healthy lifestyle and eating habits - likely doesn't crack 15 during college, may crack 15:30 in 6-36 months
b. same as above, but joins a good pro team after college, gets very good training, maintains good lifestyle and eating habits - may crack 15 after 2-5 more years, if she has exceptional talent
c. training and lifestyle spotty through college - 16-flat remains the highlight of her career, she may never run faster than 16:30 going forward
3. 43 yo male, recently run 16 flat in a, all-comers twilight meet
a. dude was a college stud back in the day, has run 14-mid, recently started running again (last 6 months), gets good coaching - may crack 15 in 6-24 months
b. dude took up running in his 30s, had > 10 years good, solid trainings and racing - will NEVER crack 15, likely not crack 15:30, unless there is a fundamental problem with training and/or lifestyle that is recognized and fixed
wiz khalifa wrote:
I am not the subject of this thread, bucko
wiz khalifa is male, 15 years old, has a real PB of 19:25 (which is 16:00 on the message board conversion table, or MBC). to get to a 15:00 MBC, or 17:40 in real life, he just needs to keep running and grow up. my guess is 21 months.
SUPERIOR COACH JS wrote:
wiz khalifa wrote:
It's not an idiotic question. I would think there would be people here who have gone from 16 to 15 or who know someone who did.
I coached an Irish master runner age 43 from 16.30 5k down to 15.37 in just 2 months!
So when did he break 15:00?
ukathleticscoach wrote:
SUPERIOR COACH JS wrote:
I coached an Irish master runner age 43 from 16.30 5k down to 15.37 in just 2 months!
So after another 2 months was he running under 15 or are you just full of Irish blaney!
There is no magic wand only people full of bs
Haha! You are just "a disaster", ukathleticscoach! Will never find the Holy Grail of running. My "magic wand" actually exists. Over 100 runners coached in 3 years and ALL improved, some of them extremely fast in 2-3 months! That`s a fact and no bs.
I'm actually curious about this as well. general observations/experiences would be awesome
After a year of training I am in low 16 5K shape (post-collegiate runner ~26min 8K soph year -- injury. 2 years off)
Week/Time
11. 17:50 5K
33. 16:33 5K
45. 33:50 10K
52. (Current week)
??. 14:59 5K
I have been training 40-60 miles per week and plan to do so until I feel I can handle quality at 60mpw. I just started incorporating workouts and lifting 2 weeks ago. I train alone (interval work is tough).
If I keep at 40-60 miles per week -- Will it take me a year to run sub 15? 2 years?
If I up to 50-70mpw?
How do people progress in college if they were undertrained in high school? My biggest concern is an injury. Eventually, I'll be back up into 80/90 land, but only if I know I can handle it.
wiz khalifa wrote:
It's not an idiotic question. I would think there would be people here who have gone from 16 to 15 or who know someone who did.
It is idiotic without more context.
wiz khalifa wrote:
Say you've got someone running a 16:00 5k. How many months would he have to train to run a 15:00 5k, assuming no gaps in training?
This is so not answerable. Running 16:00 based on what kind of training? How old is the dude?
Just because you can run 16:00 doesn't mean you can EVER run 15:00, and that is a very big jump...just not answerable in any serious way.