Emma Coburn or Frerichs, who goes sub 9 first?

A month long break for Frerichs is nothing. She's raced two steeples and Jerry only has them race a handful of races a year anyway. She'll be ready to go. How fast? It depends on how short the Monaco track actually is.

Frerichs has more upside, steeper improvement curve, and better training group/coach. Not that Emma won't keep improving or doesn't have a good coach/training group, Frerichs is just better. Frerichs also said she thought she was going to run 8:55 in Monaco based on her fitness and made a few mistakes in the race, Schumacher is usually spot on with times for his athletes.

Yeah, Frerichs is a few years younger than Coburn but the thing that impresses me is she is not intimidated by Coburn. She's hungry. She showed that last year when she (briefly) passed Coburn on the last lap of the World Championships. Not to say Coburn isn't motivated, but Frerichs really wants to unseat Coburn as #1.

Its the start of a new era. Frerichs is the future of women's steeple. She's younger, making progress faster. and is coached by the best distance coach in America. She will break 9 first and keep the AR.

Don’t forget Frerichs is the NCAA record holder in the steeple, so she was better than Emma at the same point in her career.

And Frerichs started running late. She’s extremely talented in the event.

A couple of months ago the question might have seemed ridiculous, but, much as I respect Emma, I might have to say Freichs. I have been shocked at her performances this season.

Les wrote:

Yeah, Frerichs is a few years younger than Coburn but the thing that impresses me is she is not intimidated by Coburn. She's hungry. She showed that last year when she (briefly) passed Coburn on the last lap of the World Championships. Not to say Coburn isn't motivated, but Frerichs really wants to unseat Coburn as #1.

Yep. I remember when Frerichs passed Emma at Worlds. I thought it was a real confident move and showed she was ready to take the number 1 spot away.

I like them both but I think we see Courtney as the top US Women's Steepler from now on. Maybe not every race but most.

Best thing Emma could do right now is join BTC and train with that awesome group of women.

joho wrote:

Les wrote:

Yeah, Frerichs is a few years younger than Coburn but the thing that impresses me is she is not intimidated by Coburn. She's hungry. She showed that last year when she (briefly) passed Coburn on the last lap of the World Championships. Not to say Coburn isn't motivated, but Frerichs really wants to unseat Coburn as #1.

Yep. I remember when Frerichs passed Emma at Worlds. I thought it was a real confident move and showed she was ready to take the number 1 spot away.

I like them both but I think we see Courtney as the top US Women's Steepler from now on. Maybe not every race but most.

Best thing Emma could do right now is join BTC and train with that awesome group of women.

I highly doubt Emma would ever go train with BTC. Not only would that be a change in coaching/training group, but also sponsorship. I don’t see her ever leaving New Balance for Nike.

Runnerchx27 wrote:

joho wrote:

Yep. I remember when Frerichs passed Emma at Worlds. I thought it was a real confident move and showed she was ready to take the number 1 spot away.

I like them both but I think we see Courtney as the top US Women's Steepler from now on. Maybe not every race but most.

Best thing Emma could do right now is join BTC and train with that awesome group of women.

I highly doubt Emma would ever go train with BTC. Not only would that be a change in coaching/training group, but also sponsorship. I don’t see her ever leaving New Balance for Nike.

I'm sure you are right but it would be awesome to see how that would play out for Emma. Seems likely personality, work ethic, and talent wise she would be a perfect fit.

joho wrote:

Runnerchx27 wrote:

I highly doubt Emma would ever go train with BTC. Not only would that be a change in coaching/training group, but also sponsorship. I don’t see her ever leaving New Balance for Nike.

I'm sure you are right but it would be awesome to see how that would play out for Emma. Seems likely personality, work ethic, and talent wise she would be a perfect fit.

I can see that for sure.

I like Frerichs but this question is basically head to head against another athlete, and when they compete together I doubt Frerichs has been ahead of Coburn even 1% of the time. In fact, 1% is ridiculously high.

Sorry, I don't like happy adjustments. I understand the rationale that Frerichs is younger. If it were a question of who is better in 2022 then I'll probably have a different answer.

But the reference point is a 9 minute barrier than is not too far away for either of them, give me that 99% athlete and I'll take my chances.

It's the same type of thinking I used successfully in Las Vegas for 24 years. Let everyone else watch every game and make every subjective decision accordingly. Meanwhile, subjectivity is a killer compared to logical system-based analysis that relies on the big picture.

Coburn won’t break 9. Frerichs is younger and will keep improving. Coburn will stay at the 9:0x for a few years then fade away. Not bashing Coburn here but that’s nature.

wejo wrote:

Until your post I thought of Emma's ceiling as being higher as she's faster. 4:05/8:41 for 1500/3000. Frerichs has never broken 4:14 for 1500 which is hard to believe. Frerich's must have the better endurance and is working on her speed clearly.

.

Frerichs was 4th at NCAA xc. Coburn's best was 20th.

I'm definitely going with Frerichs. Coburn has had years to break 9:00 and hasn't done it.

I'm with rojo on this one. Frerichs' 4th place at NCAA XC reveals a great 6K engine. At this point, I'd say Frerichs has the greater upside, but of course would not be surprised if Emma happens to go under 9:00 first.

Speaking of steeplers, what the heck is Ostrander doing running a 3K steeple? Its great that she is winning NCAA championships, but she was 2nd NCAA XC as a true frosh. And was 8th in the 5K at 2016 olympic trials coming off an injury! I gotta think her true comparative advantage is at 5K and 10K. Maybe just trying to focus on shorter races while still in college?

free-ricks wrote:

I'm with rojo on this one. Frerichs' 4th place at NCAA XC reveals a great 6K engine. At this point, I'd say Frerichs has the greater upside, but of course would not be surprised if Emma happens to go under 9:00 first.

Speaking of steeplers, what the heck is Ostrander doing running a 3K steeple? Its great that she is winning NCAA championships, but she was 2nd NCAA XC as a true frosh. And was 8th in the 5K at 2016 olympic trials coming off an injury! I gotta think her true comparative advantage is at 5K and 10K. Maybe just trying to focus on shorter races while still in college?

Not sure why Ostrander is doing the steeple. Maybe to regain confidence after injury? Maybe 5k/10k feels boring to her compared to the tactics needed for barriers in the steeple? Steeple might seem more similar to xc and running in AK with the changes in terrain? Just some ideas... If she sticks with steeple I wonder if she will get her time down to a point of being in the mix for the 2020 trials? Also, super stoked to see what she is capable of this fall in xc.

lion wrote:

With no pro track going on right now ...

LOL, a week long festival of it just started today.

DC12 wrote:

8:44 has ruined the allure of sub 9 now. Does it really mean anything anymore?

It does if Kipchoech fails a drug test

I mean, it took Jebet EPO to run 8:52

Frerichs for sure. She is only getting better and trains with a legit group and coach. At worlds she was too timid to pass Coburn until the end and Coburn responded. This last race she made her move earlier and in a stronger fashion. As she gets more aggressive she will easily dominate Coburn.

Coburn has not lost to an American since 2010. Dominant. 13-1 vs Courtney, who is really great too.

7 USA Championships. Olympic medal. World Champion. Courtney doesn’t have any of those accolades.

Coburn’s college time would have been the record but she red shirted that year. Didn’t run in a Buff uniform so it didn’t count.

I would not count her out. She has it all.

Courtney is the real deal, super sweet and talented, but Emma has many awesome years to go.