Before I discern I will state the following: this young man's life changed that day and changes right now. He will enter a depression and lose friends, activities like running, have a lot hanging over his head, etc. I hope when he reads this he matures and acknowledges it is a long road ahead. Stay strong kid and stay out of trouble.
Now I will share the technicalities. Depends on the following things:
* how it was found
* what he admitted
* past convictions
* who he and his family retains as his legal defense
I have seen illegal search and seizures be exposed in the courtroom and things like this dismissed. The mail will be have different elements to it but a lot of factors are at platly. Important questions are who sent it, from where and where was he at the time it was sent. Also, if he kept his mouth shut and didnt leave a paper trail there is hope.
This is going to be federal I'd think which sounds worse than state level convictions but you'd be surprised.
I saw a 500 plant grow operation case in the state of Wisconsin of a "once in a lifetime student" of horticulture according to teachers end up with about a year. He owned a house at 22 and the electricity bill was about 6-8x greater than his neighbors which brought about suspicions. He is now happily pursuing his PhD. I wont share assumptions about how he got off that lightly but the feds will "cooperate" under the right circumstances.
I saw two young men in the state of Minnesota, both college students, get popped with 5.5lbs in the trunk. Initially both kept their mouths shut and requested legal representation. The driver was willing to take the blame and his more established friend said nothing. They were both really good friends all their lives. The one who said nothing was given a non-criminal citation. The one who took the blame was later acquitted on a technicality.
Two 80+ year olds in Illinois (I think) were caught with a mega farm. Each got a year.
Of course there are bad stories too. But this kid's parents need to go to the well to get him good representation. You need super lawyers with the drop-jaw effect to enter the court room on his behalf and that is just the beginning. Regardless of outcome nobody actually wins in the courtroom. All the best to him.