vivalarepublica wrote:
Tyler Day, the 3rd place finisher at the 2017 NCAA XC championships, was a 4:20 miler in high school (although he had some impressive competitve performances). I wonder how many schools passed on him for his less than stellar times.
There are a number of factors that affect a runner’s performance in high school and development in college.
Of course a high school 4:20 miler could possibly go on to be a top collegiate runner. Nobody is arguing against that. But for every one who makes massive improvements, there are another 5 who make more modest improvements and another 2 or 3 who dont improve.
So for a college who is able to chose only sub 4:10 guys and still fill their roster will do so. They have roster limits, especially on the men's side, because they need to balance out football due to title 9. Taking on that 4:20 guy means leaving somebody else off in a different event, probably somebody with an equivalent field or sprint event performance to a sub 4:10 mile.
The coaches arent saying "a 4:20 miler will never amount to anything." They are just filling their rosters up with more proven runners. They're playing the odds. The second tier programs then take those 4:20 runners and some of them develop into a much better runner.
Its like how people love to look at Chico beating mid level D1 programs and say "see, if thpse D1 programs didnt have such stringent standards, they would be faster." The reality is Chico looks great because they have 50 mens distance runners. Not all 50 make huge improvements.
When your roster size is nearly unlimited, you can afford to take risks and develop talent, because you only need 15% of them to step it up and survive the training and you have a full squad. If the D1 schools set up a program so intense that only 15% survive the training and the other 85% wallow in overtraining, they would have 1 to 2 guys do well.
NAU does great with developing talent because they focus their track roster on distance, so they can keep extra guys around. Oregon gets crapped on for not taking a 4:10 guy, but who should they have cut to make the roster spot? Cut a 17 foot freshman in the vault? 25 foot long jumper? 10.3 100m runner? 46 400m runner?
I coached a hs kid in the 400 who ran a mid 47 and Oregon wouldnt allow him to walk on, so it isnt just distance runners.