A closer look at EPO-era performances

Correction on the video for the women's 800m:

https://youtu.be/vHU9OFSwmEs

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Coevett wrote:

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rekrunner wrote:

Men's data:
As you look at the numbers, keep in mind the relative size of the respective populations:
- East Africa (4-5.6%) (1990 and present)
- North Africa (2.9-3.1%)
- 5 continents (83-87%%)

The thing that strikes me as most anomalous, when you look at athletes from "5 continents" -- North and South America, Europe, Russia, Japan, China, Australia, New Zealand -- with a combined population 15-30 times as many people compared to East and North Africans (~3%) -- 1) why there were are so few examples making the cut-off, and 2) why their respective improvements were significantally smaller than their African competitors, during a period spanning decades, when 1) EPO was available worldwide, and largely undetectable, and 2) everybody (up to 57%) from everywhere cheats, and 3) there existed a "game-changing" undetectable drug that would have helped them close the gap, and "level" the playing field.
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Mens 1500m:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 3:29.84

Quantity:
Total: 26
East Africa: 16 61.5%
North Africa: 8 30.8%
5 Continents: 2 7.7%

Quality:
East Africa (Top 5): 3:27.52 1.1%
North Africa (Top 5): 3:27.98 0.9%
5 Continents (Top 2): 3:29.30 0.3%
(Best) El G: 3:26.00 1.8%
(Best Spaniard) Fermin Cacho: 3:28.95 0.4%

OBSERVATIONS:
o The best 5 East and North Africans both improved on average by around 1%, with El G at 1.8%
o Only two athletes from the rest of the world improved, by about 1/3rd, at 0.3%: Fermin Cacho (0.4%) and Nick Willis (0.2%)
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Mens 3000m:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 7:32.54

Quantity:
Total: 70 100.0%
East Africa: 49 70.0%
North Africa: 12 17.1%
5 Continents: 9 12.9%

Quality:
East Africa (Top 5): 7:25.20 1.6%
North Africa (Top 5): 7:25.75 1.5%
5 Continents (Top 5): 7:30.39 0.5%
(Best) Daniel Komen 7:20.67 2.6%
(Best Spaniard) Isaac Viciosa 7:29.34 0.7%

OBSERVATIONS:
o The best 5 East and North Africans both improved by around 1.5%
o The best of the rest of the world improved by 1/3rd, at 0.5%, with the best Spaniard at 0.7%
o 3 Spaniards made the cut-off
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Mens 3000m Steeplechase:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 8:05.98

Quantity:
Total: 32 100.0%
East Africa: 25 78.1%
North Africa: 5 15.6%
5 Continents: 2 6.3%

Quality:
East Africa (Top 5): 7:54.61 2.3%
North Africa (Top 5): 8:00.57 1.1%
5 Continents (Top 2): 8:02.70 0.7%
(Best) Brahim Boulami: 7:53.17 2.6%
(Best non-African) Evan Jager: 8:00.45 1.1%

OBSERVATIONS:
o French athletes are Algerian descent
o Almost purely dominated by Kenya, with no Ethiopians
o East Africans improved nearly the double of North Africans, and the triple of the rest of the world
o Spain was a non-factor
o Only two athletes from the rest of the world improved: Evan Jager (1.1%) and Simon Vroemen (0.2%)
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Mens 5000m:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 13:02.08

Quantity:
Total: 112 100.0%
East Africa: 91 81.3%
North Africa: 13 11.6%
5 Continents: 8 7.1%

Quality:
East Africa (Top 5): 12:41.96 2.6%
North Africa (Top 5): 12:50.06 1.5%
5 Continents (Top 5): 12:56.09 0.8%
(Best) Bekele: 12:37.35 3.2%
(Best non-African) Baumann: 12:54.70 0.9%

OBSERVATIONS:
o Would expect EPO helps 5000m
o East Africans improved almost the double of North Africans, and the triple of the rest of the world
o Spain was not a factor, except Ethiopian Bezabeh
o Baumann would be 8th North African and 39th East African
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Mens 10000m:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 27:14.77

Quantity:
Total: 111 100.0%
East Africa: 101 91.0%
North Africa: 5 4.5%
5 Continents: 5 4.5%

Quality:
East Africa (Top 5): 26:25.78 3.0%
North Africa (Top 5): 26:59.98 0.9%
5 Continents (Top 5): 27:03.68 0.7%
(Best) Bekele: 26:17.53 3.5%
(Best non-African) Rupp: 26:44.36 1.9%
(Best Spaniard) Fabián Roncero: 27:14.44 0.0%

OBSERVATIONS:
o Only 4 non-East Africans have run sub-27:00 (two after 2010)
o 54 (93.1%) East Africans have run sub-27:00
o Next 53? 47 East African, 3 North African, and 3 from the rest of World
o Only 10 non-East Africans total
o Spain is almost completely non-factor
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Marathon:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 2:07:11

Quantity:
Total: 201 100.0%
East Africa: 183 91.0%
North Africa: 6 3.0%
5 Continents: 12 6.0%

Quality:
East Africa (Top 5): 2:03:06 3.2%
North Africa (Top 5): 2:06:02 0.9%
5 Continents (Top 5): 2:06:21 0.7%
Kimetto: 2:02:57 3.3%
Ryan Hall (Boston): 2:04:58 1.7%
Jaouad Gharib: 2:05:27 1.4%
Ronaldo de Costa: 2:06:05 0.9%
Julio Rey: 2:06:52 0.3%

OBSERVATIONS:
o East Africans improved more than the triple of both North Africans, and the rest of the world
o No "top" marathons made the cutoff between 1988 and 1995
o 100 quality performances up to Geb's first world record (Sep. 2007)
o 447 quality performances after (Sep. 2007)
o JPN (3)and RSA (3)
o Only 1 Spaniard, Julio Rey
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GENERAL OBSERVATIONS for the men:
o Most events have East Africans at 70-90%, improving by 3%
o Where was the rest of the world during the decades of the EPO era? Some 5-10% of "5 continents" improved, by about 1% or less
o Despite the large number of EPO busts, Spain doesn't appear to be a large asset for the "5 continents" or tough competitors against the Africans

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So you're starting from the assumption that 'everybody cheats', and then use the fact that white performances trailed off after 1990 whilst East African and North African rocketed to conclude that 'everybody cheats, but EPO allowed Africans to cheat as much as the rest??

What a twat. You really have taken Ventilo's mantle with this post.

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As I described, I used the AVERAGE of the Top-5 as the cut-off, rather than the Top 5th performance.
Of course, lowering the cutoff will increase all of the numbers.

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Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:
Coevett, check my figures with these ⤴they don't match for men, it should be 7:35 not 7:32 and 13:06 not 13:02. When adjusted the epo era saw absolutely massive gains across the board.

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Yeah, I'm not following your logic. I didn't make these assumptions or draw these conclusions.
I showed real performance data, to show a large sub-group did not improve very much, when compare to much smaller groups.
I don't know who cheated before and after, outside of doping busts.
These assumptions about cheating are all yours.

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Coevett wrote:
So you're starting from the assumption that 'everybody cheats', and then use the fact that white performances trailed off after 1990 whilst East African and North African rocketed to conclude that 'everybody cheats, but EPO allowed Africans to cheat as much as the rest??

What a twat. You really have taken Ventilo's mantle with this post.

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I see a lot of assumptions in there. A lot of countries, inside "5 continents" and outside of East and North African would have been unable to blood dope, and there is no corresponding increase in quantity of the kind you would expect.

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Quantity not quality wrote:
When looking at these stats the increase in quantity, rather than the increase in quality, is a better indication of doping, given the circumstances in the time periods compared - as has been said by a few, EPO effectively performs the same function as blood doping, which in the 80s would have been harder (if not impossible in the vast majority of cases) to perform in an African country, whereas EPO nowadays is comparatively much simpler to store/use, so if EPO were in use for doping purposes, in place of the blood doping prevalent in the 80s, I would expect to see an increase in quantity, primarily focused on those countries who would have been unable to blood dope................ in general that is exactly what your stats show rekrunner.

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rekrunner wrote:

Yeah, I'm not following your logic. I didn't make these assumptions or draw these conclusions.
I showed real performance data, to show a large sub-group did not improve very much, when compare to much smaller groups.
I don't know who cheated before and after, outside of doping busts.
These assumptions about cheating are all yours.

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Coevett wrote:
So you're starting from the assumption that 'everybody cheats', and then use the fact that white performances trailed off after 1990 whilst East African and North African rocketed to conclude that 'everybody cheats, but EPO allowed Africans to cheat as much as the rest??

What a twat. You really have taken Ventilo's mantle with this post.

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All I know is UK times didn't improve while Morrocan times improved and the declined to such an obvious extent that even somebody named Gary could see it was EPO.

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rekrunner wrote:

Ceplak and Hachlaf ran too slow to make the cutoff.
EPO, with or without androgens, did not make them faster than pre-EPO women from the 1980s and 1976.
Your pre- and post-bust analysis does not control any confounding factors and simply lacks too much information.

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Something to consider:

In Europe and North America the rise of other sports, those that turned professional, in the 80s and 90s could account for the drop off in performances. All the while athletics was still being run as a corrupt pseudo-amateur sh*tshow.

Why spend your life busting your ass on the track, with only a top-ten finish guaranteeing a decent payday, when you can make a better living just by breaking the top 300 in some sports? Plus you can retire to a decent coaching gig and remain a professional in your professional field.

In essence athletics became a high risk, low reward, 'non-career' choice for a European compared to an African for whom the reverse might be true.

If track and field had been organized (and televised) professionally we would have seen a very different sport possibly with athletes from other nations taking the prizes. Still lots of drugs though.

Yeah you really misunderstood that. These is a claim often used against me, which I chose to not contest, as a way of avoiding discussion:
- Tuebingen survey shows doping prevalence is up to 57% if not higher
Then, assuming EPO is as effective as claimed, and many athletes from everywhere are doping, non-Africans (not Africans) should be able to level the playing field and close the gap between them and the East and North Africans.

If it makes you feel better, change "everybody cheats" to "athletes from everywhere cheat, up to 57% according to a recent Tuebingen survey" -- or better yet, just remove it completely -- it changes nothing.

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Coevett wrote:
In your second post in this thread you use the exact words 'everybody cheats'. Then you say that EPO enabled Africans to cheat on a level playing field. Jesus.

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On the outside looking in wrote:

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Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

EPO would benefit the 800m runner by making the athlete fitter and able to push harder on the second lap.

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+1

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dude can you give it up already? for the love of gawd man....get over it! once the brojos stood behind Renato and his opinion that EPO doesnt work, you dont have to beat the dead horse day in and day out, we get it.

EPO DOESNT WORK, PEDs dont work, the only person that PEDs worked on was ben johnson, everyone else ran slower, ben is the only dirty runner of all time cause PEDs dont work!!!!!

all sports are clean cause PEDs dont work, if they dont work why are we arguing day in and day out? PEDs dont work, no one is dirty,

how many times do you have to reword your annoying rant? yes WE GET IT, EPO and PEDs DONT WORK!!!!

you are the smartest guy on LR...well tied with vent/calculo that is, and Renato and coach JS are the best coaches in the world.

jim ryun ran 3'24, and for the millionth time, EPO and PEDs dont work......you dont have to keep telling us

This thread is about comparing all time best performances before 1990 and after 1990, and not about whether EPO helps women in the 800m because it is aerobic.

Your EPO champions were not as fast as the steroids champions of the past.

Initially I didn't even include the 800m, realizing the futility, but just added it on request as a courtesy.

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Rocket Fuel Rick wrote:

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rekrunner wrote:
Ceplak and Hachlaf ran too slow to make the cutoff.
EPO, with or without androgens, did not make them faster than pre-EPO women from the 1980s and 1976.
Your pre- and post-bust analysis does not control any confounding factors and simply lacks too much information.

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So what Gary that their times didn't make the cut off of your pre-EPO women.

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rekrunner wrote:

This thread is about comparing all time best performances before 1990 and after 1990, and not about whether EPO helps women in the 800m because it is aerobic.

Your EPO champions were not as fast as the steroids champions of the past.

Initially I didn't even include the 800m, realizing the futility, but just added it on request as a courtesy.

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Rocket Fuel Rick wrote:

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rekrunner wrote:
Ceplak and Hachlaf ran too slow to make the cutoff.
EPO, with or without androgens, did not make them faster than pre-EPO women from the 1980s and 1976.
Your pre- and post-bust analysis does not control any confounding factors and simply lacks too much information.

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So what Gary that their times didn't make the cut off of your pre-EPO women.

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rekrunner wrote:

This thread is about comparing all time best performances before 1990 and after 1990, and not about whether EPO helps women in the 800m because it is aerobic.

Your EPO champions were not as fast as the steroids champions of the past.

Initially I didn't even include the 800m, realizing the futility, but just added it on request as a courtesy.

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Rocket Fuel Rick wrote:

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rekrunner wrote:
Ceplak and Hachlaf ran too slow to make the cutoff.
EPO, with or without androgens, did not make them faster than pre-EPO women from the 1980s and 1976.
Your pre- and post-bust analysis does not control any confounding factors and simply lacks too much information.

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So what Gary that their times didn't make the cut off of your pre-EPO women.

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I don't know why you keep blaming me. I did nothing to you, and did not report you or otherwise complain about you, except a few comments to you directly.

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m!ndweak wrote:
... but your cry baby bullsh*t got all my comments deleted and then i got banned.

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If you could stop misquoting me, I will definitely consider not repeating myself.
I'm definitely in favor of not having to defend myself against things I did not say.

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m!ndweak wrote:
dude can you give it up already? for the love of gawd man....get over it! once the brojos stood behind Renato and his opinion that EPO doesnt work, you dont have to beat the dead horse day in and day out, we get it.

EPO DOESNT WORK, PEDs dont work, the only person that PEDs worked on was ben johnson, everyone else ran slower, ben is the only dirty runner of all time cause PEDs dont work!!!!!

all sports are clean cause PEDs dont work, if they dont work why are we arguing day in and day out? PEDs dont work, no one is dirty,

how many times do you have to reword your annoying rant? yes WE GET IT, EPO and PEDs DONT WORK!!!!

you are the smartest guy on LR...well tied with vent/calculo that is, and Renato and coach JS are the best coaches in the world.

jim ryun ran 3'24, and for the millionth time, EPO and PEDs dont work......you dont have to keep telling us

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man love you bro!!! thanks for putting me in my place again!

EPO DOESNT WORK, EPO DOESNT WORK!

unban PEDs and EPO cause they dont work!!!!

rekrunner for president!!!!!!!!!!

brojos hire on rekrunner as a sports analyst and let him go and do the "hard" questions at the big meets. please let him be the "boots on the ground".....oh gosh he is so my man crush!!!

EPO DOESNT WORK, EPO DOESNT WORK!