For me, "EPO works" or "EPO doesn't work" are faithful declarations of belief we cannot resolve with current knowledge, intended to plant a flag, end the discussion, and close your mind.
I'm open to "EPO works", but more interested in defining where it works, by how much, and when it doesn't, based on real data, rather than speculation and innuendo.
It can be "EPO works" for some events, while completely ineffective for others.
Look again at where Russian doping success was, and was not. Or the Chinese.
Above I've looked at real performances, but have no way of knowing the effect of any combination of drugs, pre-1990 or post-1990, except to look at averages and trends, and make speculations. There are many variables that have changed between 1980 and post-1990. EPO and steroids are two. Evolution of testing is a third. There are many more. I've only looked at final performance results without speculating the causes. If East African dominance comes from drugs, it should be repeatable, i.e. in Spain, one of the worst abusers. It wasn't repeated in Spain.
I've repeatedly said my own "beliefs" -- you may agree or disagree:
- If EPO works *at the top*, it is less than the ~1% (from 1980s) we see in non-Africans *at the top*
- I'm not buying steroids for the men for distance events like 5000m, 10000m and marathon
- We must look for other "local" reasons to explain East African and North African dominance of up to 3% (from 1980s), not "global" reasons like EPO
- If anything, high altitude East Africans should have inherent oxygen-related advantages, and training at altitude should make EPO less effective, if not superfluous. The benefits are not strictly cumulative.
- Steroids and Testosterone and other male hormones work, especially for women
- Your "Western" OOC testing may be true for some countries, but is it true for ALL? It seems like when it suits, OOC testing is extremely effective. Then in the next thread, it is completely beatable and useless. It doesn't ring true at all when we look at the history of cycling. It doesn't ring true for countries like Russia and China. Recall, I'm only looking for 5 athletes over 28 years able to beat 1980s standards, even the busted ones. I found 36 non-African men in six events (assuming no duplicates) after the introduction of this "game changing" drug that promises 3% improvement for top athletes. In all my data, there are 0 Russian and Chinese male performances, but 161 Russian and 154 Chinese female performances.
More real data:
Spain was strongest in 3000m, with 3 making the cutoff (Isaac Viciosa, Manuel Pancorbo, Enrique Molina) -- I know -- who?
Only Viciosa was in the Top-5 of "5 continents".
Otherwise, only Cacho (1500m), Fabián Roncero (10000m), and Julio Rey (marathon) made the cut-off.
Cacho was 1st, Roncero was 5th, and Rey (EPO doper) was 12th, in "5 continents".
Poster-boy Ramzi (CERA doper) made the 1500m cut-off, but was 6th fastest North African, out of the top 5.
Mourhit was 4th, 2nd, and 2nd fastest North African in 3000m, 5000m, and 10000m respectively.
Ali Saidi-Sief was 7th, 2nd, and 6th fastest North African in 1500m, 3000m, and 5000m respectively.
Goumri was 12th, 4th, 3rd, and 2nd fastest North African in 3000m, 5000m, 10000m and marathon respectively.
None of them were strong factors against East Africans, except Mourhit in 3000m.
Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:
Are you alright?
Sounds like you accept that epo works, it also sounds like you are open to steriods in the 1980s (which is clearly visible for female events).
But the problem we still have is what effect blood doping plus steriods may have had pre1990.
The Spanish were really milers (maybe 3k), but traditionally it is thought that these events required a high vo2max, hence the use of epo.
I noticed Boulami on the list, then I wondered how many athletes are on the list that subsequently failed tests (Mourhit, Saidi Sief, Ramzi, Goumri).
Domestically, Western athletes had OOC testing for steroids/testosterone in the 1990s while Africans didn't, ceteris paribus, Western athletes would not be able to close the gap with Africans doing epo + steriods. Though HGH is a possibility.