DII Regionals

hey arnold jr wrote:

Interesting. Thanks.

I still don't know how you look at match-ups earlier in the season. Head to head stuff. This is XC. Most of the better squads didn't even field full teams till this past weekend.

Not too mention there is not "wisco", or "pre-nats" where the majority of the best squads toe the line. If Marcos doesn't get in that's a real tragedy to the west region, and them.

Griak and Lewis (and to a lesser extent Chili Pepper, Fort Hays and USI's home meet) seem to have filled the role of "Wisco" and "Pre-Nats". Look at the field of those two meets and many of the top 20-30 teams in the country were there.

And there's something in there about B-teams (4 of the 7 a team runs at regionals I think?).

Read the rules and maybe you'll understand more:

http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2017DIIMWXC_QualifyingCriteria_Updated_20170919.pdf

Competitions are only counted from 7 weeks before the regional championships, which puts us around the weekend of September 16 for the first competitions that are counted (I'm sure that the Friday before is counted too).

A head-to-head win only counts if a team runs their "A" team, which is defined as having at least 4 of your eventual 7 that will run at regionals, which is not necessarily the best definition. For example, at the Jon Doe Invite on September 16, team X holds out the 1-3 runners, but runs their 4-7. That is considered an A team. If they get beat by other teams, that will count as a win for those teams. Obviously that is far from an A team if you're holding out your 3 best runners.

You could totally be right with your predictions. The way I analyzed things, I don't think I took those second degree wins into too much consideration like you did. That just gets a little difficult to keep track of by hand. It should be all ready to go to be calculated by TFRRS though.

I have this for the guys

Walsh

West Texas

CSU Pueblo

Dallas Bap

Simon Fraser

Alaska Anchorage

Academy of Ark

Cal Poly

This for the gals

Min. Duluth

Ok- Baptist

Simon Fraser

Cal St. San Marcos

Cal Poly

Colorado Springs

Dallas Bap

Northern Michigan

Yeah, thanks have read through - just part unclear to me.

One more question for you.

It goes on to say that individual qualifying process will be the same as team. Then goes directly into the formula.

Do you think this means that head to head matters as far as individuals go? If a girl or guy who is borderline going mathematically has beaten many of the auto's earlier in season - does this matter imo?

You think the Midwest will get 3 at large bids over the West?

Could be wrong but if any region gets 3 at large it's the west.

I’ve got no idea for the individual process as I discussed earlier in the thread. It’s not detailed enough as to how they will actually do it. I just used the point system because I’m not going to take the time to analyze head to head matchups of individuals by hand.

Here’s why I picked those Midwest teams over the West teams for the women.

Southern Indiana - wins over Queens, Lee, and Edinboro, all of which were autos.

Malone - wins over autos of Shippensburg and Edinboro and wins over other teams in consideration over West Chester and Southern Indiana

I don’t see any wins like that for Cal St San Marcos. The closest win I have for them is over Cal Poly Pomona, which doesn’t matter because they aren’t in consideration until Cal St San Marcos is in.

What I am not taking into account is wins over common competitors and I was also making some assumptions on “A” teams, because I didn’t want to take the time for that.

I know some of those are wins against relatively weak teams, but I don’t think this system takes that into consideration. Point-blank, you’ve still got to perform well at regionals to qualify.

FlyingEagle82 wrote:

I have this for the guys

Walsh

West Texas

CSU Pueblo

Dallas Bap

Simon Fraser

Alaska Anchorage

Academy of Ark

Cal Poly

This for the gals

Min. Duluth

Ok- Baptist

Simon Fraser

Cal St. San Marcos

Cal Poly

Colorado Springs

Dallas Bap

Northern Michigan

What did you all look at to get these teams? This is essentially what I thought they'd be too - but that was considering almost entirely national rankings and gap scores from regional meets. Nothing head to head.

In no particular order

Women:

Simon Fraser

Northern Mich

USI

Malone

Minn Duluth

UCCS

Ok. Baptist

Dallas Baptist

Men:

Walsh

Bellermine

Saginaw

Simon Fraser

Alaska Anchorage

Academy of Art

West Texas AM

CSU Pueblo

I don’t think the committee cares about prior rankings much. The whole point was to perform at regionals. Looking at scores and strength of regionals I think these are the teams that deserve to get in. Tough call on both sides

The system is a joke. I'm looking at it all morning and I cannot figure it out...

Here's what I see:

All Regions #4 v #4, then moving #5 into the spot that was pulled from and continuing with the comparisons.

For the sake of this argument for the women, we should really only look at the West, Midwest, Central, and South Central Regions.

So..ROUND #1...

Simon Fraser v. Northern Michigan v. Minnesota Duluth v. UCCS.

Simon Fraser beat Northern Michigan, so they would move on in the comparison.

Simon Fraser beat Minnesota Duluth, so they would move on in the comparison.

Simon Fraser did not beat UCCS, but UCCS lost to both Northern Michigan and Minnesota Duluth.

Simon Fraser is the 1st at-large team.

ROUND #2:

San Marcos v. Northern Michigan v. Minnesota Duluth v. UCCS.

San Marcos has no wins against any team listed.

Northern Michigan beat Minnesota Duluth, so they move on.

Northern Michigan beat UCCS, so they move on.

Northern Michigan is the 2nd at-large team.

ROUND #3:

San Marcos v. Southern Indiana v. Minnesota Duluth v. UCCS

San Marcos has no wins against any team listed.

Southern Indiana has no wins against any team listed.

Minnesota Duluth beat UCCS, so they would move on.

Minnesota Duluth is the 3rd at-large team.

ROUND #4:

San Marcos v. Southern Indiana v. Oklahoma Baptist v. UCCS

San Marcos has no wins against any team listed.

Southern Indiana has no wins against any team listed.

Oklahoma Baptist has no wins against any team listed.

UCCS beat Southern Indiana, so they would move on.

UCCS is the 4th at-large team.

ROUND #5:

San Marcos v. Southern Indiana v. Oklahoma Baptist v. Dallas Baptist

San Marcos has no wins against any team listed.

Southern Indiana has no wins against any team listed.

Oklahoma Baptist and Dallas Baptist each have a win against the other.

So, here you would use the 2nd tier wins...both beat Pitt State at MSSU Stampede.

So, assuming this is equal since they have same # of wins, you would use regional point gap.

Oklahoma Baptist has a .9, while Dallas Baptist has a .78.

Oklahoma Baptist is the 5th at-large team.

ROUND #6:

San Marcos v. Southern Indiana v. Southwest Baptist v. Dallas Baptist

San Marcos has no wins against any team listed.

Southern Indiana has no wins against any team listed.

Southwest Baptist has no wins against any team listed.

Dallas Baptist has a win over Southwest Baptist, so they would move on.

Dallas Baptist is the 6th at-large team.

ROUND #7:

San Marcos v. Southern Indiana v. Southwest Baptist v. Fort Lewis

San Marcos has a win against Fort Lewis, so they would move on.

Southern Indiana has a win against Fort Lewis, so they would move on.

Southwest Baptist has no wins, they would not move on.

Fort Lewis has no wins, they would not move on.

San Marcos and Southern Indiana have common wins, so they would look at 2nd tier wins.

Neither have 2nd tier wins, so you would look at Regional Point Gap.

Southern Indiana has a .92, while San Marcos has a .7, so Southern Indiana would move on.

Southern Indiana is the 7th at-large team.

ROUND #8:

San Marcos v. Malone v. Southwest Baptist v. Fort Lewis

San Marcos does not have a win against any teams listed.

Malone has a win against Fort Lewis, so they would move on.

Southwest Baptist does not have a win against any teams listed.

Fort Lewis does not have a win against any teams listed.

Malone is the 8th at-large team.

It looks like you would have:

Simon Fraser

Northern Michigan

Minnesota Duluth

UCCS

Oklahoma Baptist

Dallas Baptist

Southern Indiana

Malone

Those are the exact teams that I got for the women. I've just been messing around with it to challenge myself to see if I actually understand the system and can predict everyone correctly.

CORRECTED ABOVE POST. Messed up the 8th round, but same result.

San Marcos has a win over Chico State. They took 3rd in their region but lost to San Marcos at the UCR invite.

San Marcos I will be the last team in.

Just my guess.

This is what I have for the men using the same process I did with the women.

Round #1:

Duluth

Round #2:

Sioux Falls

Round #3:

Simon Fraser

Round #4:

Alaska

Round #5:

Walsh

Round #6:

Art

Round #7;

Bellarmine

Round #8:

Malone

I agree with these men’s predictions. Have you done calculations for individuals based on these?

I have not.

I think I might be out of order on the men's, but I believe these are still the teams that get in.

Let's be honest though; this process is too complicated.

It really is! I’ve tried to figure out individuals but I’m lost.