andicamp wrote:
In this area, the Portland Marathon has seen a steady decline in finishers over the past 4 years or so. This year I think it was fewer than 3000 finishers, down from something like 7000 at its peak.
In addition, the Vancouver, USA marathon, which is right across the river, had been growing steadily since its inception, and this year they canceled the whole event because hardly anyone had registered.
There are some outside influences to both of these races getting smaller (Vancouver was too short one year, Portland was too long, and Portland's race management is a disaster in general), but it's interesting that it may be part of a larger trend.
See my post on the prior page. A lot of these races have common issues with consistency, courses or management. I also forgot to mention you do need to look at comparing dates. It looks like Vancouver was 3 weeks before Portland. Looking at the weather for that race week, it looks you had quite a few days in the 80's or 90's. Meanwhile 3 weeks later, Portland's weather was 65 on race day. Given this hotter weather, if I were training for a marathon, why would I train all that much just to have a hot race day? Portland looks more appealing to me just because of the weather. Not to mention, those two races compete against each other. Pretty much no one is going to do both. Instead, move one to the spring and have the other remain in the fall. It's what happened to Indanapolis -- They had a full marathon in the middle of October and then Monumental the first weekend of November. The one in October ended up shutting down and only being a half.
Now you also have to look at the local running population. How many marathoners are there exactly? How many of those are going to do races out of state (Chicago, NY, CIM, etc) vs run a local hometown race? How many of those are repeat marathoners doing the race more than once? Personally, for a full marathon, I wouldn't mind doing it twice, but after 2x, there's so many cool races, that I don't want to do it more than that. Even Chicago (which I hate), there's no way you'd get me to go back and run that a third time as I'm bored with it. Races like Chicago, it doesn't matter as you'll always have more people wanting to run than you can allow, thus lottery and qualifying. But small races only have so much appeal. Sure, you'll get some people from out of state to come in and run it. But unless there's something specifically interesting or unique about your race, you're not going to have a huge out of state crowd. So then you're relying on local runners. Which after their 2nd or 3rd time doing the race, they might not be interested anymore or might move on to other non-running activities or stop running full marathons. So your race gets smaller and smaller.
Then let's look at competition. That's what really brings in people. Indianapolis Monumental is known to be flat and fast. You see a ton of crazy fast half marathon times with people flying in from all over the US to race there. Looking at Portland, my mediocre time from Berlin where I was in the 600's would have been top 10. My PR would have won one of the years. That, and the course is a freaking out and back. Better for spectators, but I'm sure that gets boring, especially if you've run it more than once.