Eliud Kipchoge's next MARATHON!

mako wrote:

Les wrote:

No, London is a serious competitive event. It's not a mass participation event that brings in elite athletes for publicity like the Great North Run. London pays big money to bring in great fields to run fast. They're not going to cut off their nose to spite their face just to ensure Farah the win. Even if they did, marathons (as we saw with Adola) are not as predictable as shorter races. What if London watered down the field only for Farah to have a bad race or even drop out? Then the entire race looks bad. London has to maintain its position as a major marathon. They can't water down the field. Then they would no longer be London.

Farah will likely not run a marathon at all next spring. He will probably try to win the world half marathon championship in Valencia.

He's already confirmed for London 2018.

do we even know officially there will be a 2nd breaking2?

No, they will announce this year. However, in an interview Patrick Sang gave to Nat Geo, he said Eliud will be back next year in Monza...

I forsee Kipchoge going for the WR at either tokyo or london. I personally think that with the longer preperation between those two and berlin than the gap between Berlin and Breaking 2 will lead to him breaking it then. Berlin will probably be his next marathon afterward, which it's a bit early to speculate on. I would love to see him run Rotterram or Frankfurt, as those are two very fast course that don't get many big names anymore. After Berlin 2018, I think Kipchoge will probably wrap up his career, but who knows? Kipsang has gone on for 13 marathon and is still challenging the WR.

Now to talk about Adola. Yes history has shown that most fast debuts never run faster, but Dennis Kimetto had the fastest legal debut prior to Adola's run, and he had a pretty good 3 year run. In fact, lets look at the fastest debuts without Dubai( which always seems to have random ethopians run 1 superfast race their then disappear, I persoannly think this is by far the worlds fastest course) and 2011 boston for obvious reasons.

Athlete. Debut. Second. Pb

1. Guye Adola 2:03:46. N/A. 2:03:46

2. Dennis Kimmetto 2:04:16 2:06:50 2:02:57

3. Kenenisa Bekele 2:05:04 2:05:51 2:03:03

4. Tilahun Regassa 2:05:27 2:05:38 2:05:27

5. Eliud Kipchoge 2:05:30 2:04:05 2:03:05

Of these athletes, 3 of them have improved their PB since then.

I don't think Adola is the next big thing, but I'm not going to write him off completely just because LRC released a statistic and concluded that he would most likely be a nobody without analysing the data closer. Maybe he will be the next Dennis Kimmetto, maybe he fades in obscurity, or maybe he puts together a decent string of 2:03s-2:04s before buring out.

I agree with you that we should wait to see what happens with Adola rather than completely writting him off or claiming he is the next big thing, but I have high hopes for him. As for Kipchoge, I think that his next marathon will be the WR.

BMORESPICYBOIZ wrote:

your top 2 seem to be the only reasonable options... Though London might not want him there so Missus Farah can get an easy W..

I see another assault on sub 2 coming before I see him doing Tokyo... though maybe they'll time it so he can do both.. He will not do Boston.. not record eligible

"Not record eligible"... he seemed to really care about that in his Breaking2 attempt.