First Marathon race in 16 weeks - Do I have a small shot at sub 3h?

3:10-3:15 then maybe sub-3 in another 16 weeks after that? Probably need more aerobic development - and 40 mpw can get you there but it will take a while.

Fatfontaine wrote:

3:10-3:15 then maybe sub-3 in another 16 weeks after that? Probably need more aerobic development - and 40 mpw can get you there but it will take a while.

Thanks for the reply!

To be fair I would start running more tgan 40mpw if I am training for that marathon with that goal is mind, I can probably go to 50-60mpw.

Bit of a bump/update as my first post didn't get many replies.

I have been training with that goal in mind (marathon at the end of October). I'll obviously probably fall short but I'm interested in your guys thoughts.

I've been running an average of 55 miles over the summer, with several weeks around 65-70, hoping to peak around 75 early October.

I ran a few races as well in July & August, hitting 18:50 5K and 39:20 10K. Right now I'm trying to do a long run of 18-20 miles once every week (have 6 of them since mid-July) and adding some MP paces run.

Most 2 recents are:

- 14 miles run with the last 8 miles in 6'40/mile

- 15.5 miles run with the last 13.1 miles at MP. Finished the run in 1:48:45 with the last 13.1 miles in 1:28:50 (6'46 pace).

Any other opinions if you think I have any shot at that sub3 goal?

Thanks!

it depends on how risk averse you are. yes, you have a small shot, but if you go out at 3 hour pace there is a, probably big, chance you'll bonk later in the race and crawl in at 8min+/mile pace. on the other hand, if you go out in 3h10 pace, you should have a good chance of sustaining the pace (provided of course you take care of eating and drinking enough).

I think a target of 3:10 to 3:05 is in the right range.

That would be a solid debut and you can build from there.

You have gotten solid advice so far, but I would aim for sub-3 hours. I was in very similar condition for my first marathon, and ran ran way too conservatively to finish in 3:15. Ran another marathon a month later, finishing easily in 2:52, despite an extended "nature stop" at 13 miles (actually had to wait for the single port-a-john).

I would suggest starting at about 7-minute-mile pace (4:12/km?), for the first mile or two, then settling in at 6:50 pace. Or if there is a 3-hour pace group, stick with them right from the start. It will feel very easy, so be careful not run too fast. Enjoy the "pedestrian" pace, and visualize "kicking in" the last few miles.

I think your training and race performances predict a very doable sub-3, if all goes smoothly. Have fun!

Bittertown wrote:

- 15.5 miles run with the last 13.1 miles at MP. Finished the run in 1:48:45 with the last 13.1 miles in 1:28:50 (6'46 pace).

If you can run 1.28 solo I think you have a shot yes.

I say go for it.

I am also trying to go sub 3 (pb 2:54 from 2010), having a 1:24 recent half (and 1:22 en March),

Yesterday did a 20 miler with 10 miles a 6:45 and felt really confortable. Assuming your 13,1 went smooth I would go out and try to go sub 3.

The only thing that strikes me is that your races dont add up (given that your fitness has gone up really fast), hope you can run a 10k and at least hit 38:30, if you hit 37:30 that would really be a confidence booster.

Thank for all the replies. I agree that 3:05 or 3:10 would be more realistic goals, but I feel like I would be disappointed if I didn't give 2:59 a shot.... I don't really mind bonking or even DNF, I can always try next time.

Allen1959, that's very encouraging, thanks a lot!

I'd try to start a bit slower (7/mile is roughly 4:20 I think) but there will indeed be a pace group of 3:00, so I figured the best strategy would be to try and follow that group as long as possible. Hopefully they don't start too fast, as the first 6 miles are so are (very) slightly uphill.

CLRunner wrote:

Yesterday did a 20 miler with 10 miles a 6:45 and felt really confortable. Assuming your 13,1 went smooth I would go out and try to go sub 3.

The only thing that strikes me is that your races dont add up (given that your fitness has gone up really fast), hope you can run a 10k and at least hit 38:30, if you hit 37:30 that would really be a confidence booster.

The 13.1 went alright, I obviously can't say it was easy at all but I wasn't dying either and I had quite tired legs from the past 4-5 days.

Ha, there's no way I could hit those 10K times I think... the 39:20 I did was mid-August. I guess with a perfect flat course and less traffic at the start line I could do 38:55 or something...