I have a simple riddle

kartelite wrote:

its just obvious wrote:

I have two kids, one is a girl. What is the probability that the other kid is a boy?

2/3

You are usually better at this stuff.

yes, it's obvious wrote:

2/3

Where are these people getting 2/3 from? It's obviously 100%.

its just obvious wrote:

kartelite wrote:

2/3

You are usually better at this stuff.

There are two linguistic interpretations; by saying "one is a girl" the "one" could either be a pronoun or a determiner. In the most usual sense of the English language, it would be a pronoun, and then by applying Bayes' rule and assuming independence you get 2/3.

its just obvious wrote:

1/3

You were the only one who got it right but your reasoning was off. You were just lucky with the right answer.

You sure about your answer?

I looked this up, here is the clearest explanation I found:

In a family with 2 children there are four possibilities:

1) the first child is a boy and the second child is a boy (bb)

2) the first child is a boy and the second child is a girl (bg)

3) the first child is a girl and the second child is a boy (gb)

4) the first child is a girl and the second child is a girl (gg)

You're not having a second kid you already have two. One is a girl, so shouldn't it be 2/3 for the other kid being a boy?

It's ambiguous based on the wording. If you said you have two kids, and I asked if you have a daughter, and you say yes, then there's a 2/3 chance you also have a son. However, if you're just offering a random piece of information ("one is a girl") then the context of why you gave that information is ambiguous.

Explain your answer. I think people have proven you wrong.

its just obvious wrote:

I have two kids, one is a girl. What is the probability that the other kid is a boy?

Nobody gives a carp how many goats you have.

Whatsver the other chooses to self identify as that day.

Hello OP.... wrote:

Explain your answer. I think people have proven you wrong.

I am very surprised so many had so much trouble with this. Let me restate the problem exactly as I stated it, "I have two kids, one is a girl. What is the probability that the other kid is a boy?"

The problem is very clearly stated. I have two kids, one is a girl, what are the chances the the other child is a boy?

Lets look at all the combinations of my two kids:

Boy-Girl

Girl-Boy

Girl-Girl

Boy-Boy

Since one child is a girl, the Boy-Boy option is eliminated which leaves three options.

The chances are 1/3.

kartelite wrote:

its just obvious wrote:

You are usually better at this stuff.

There are two linguistic interpretations; by saying "one is a girl" the "one" could either be a pronoun or a determiner. In the most usual sense of the English language, it would be a pronoun, and then by applying Bayes' rule and assuming independence you get 2/3.

I hope you are trolling.

kartelite wrote:

There are two linguistic interpretations; by saying "one is a girl" the "one" could either be a pronoun or a determiner. In the most usual sense of the English language, it would be a pronoun, and then by applying Bayes' rule and assuming independence you get 2/3.

Are you a public school teacher by chance?

its just obvious wrote:

Lets look at all the combinations of my two kids:

Boy-Girl

Girl-Boy

Girl-Girl

Boy-Boy

Since one child is a girl, the Boy-Boy option is eliminated which leaves three options.

The chances are 1/3.

Try again, stupid.

HardLoper wrote:

It's ambiguous based on the wording. If you said you have two kids, and I asked if you have a daughter, and you say yes, then there's a 2/3 chance you also have a son. However, if you're just offering a random piece of information ("one is a girl") then the context of why you gave that information is ambiguous.

Hardloper is correct. OP is a undoubtedly a sophomore in some sort of school. Sophomore means "wise fool." Probably heard this from someone else and tried to repeat it and got it wrong.

Typical carelessness of the unregistered name user, doesn't suffer from looking stupid, just moves on to a different name. Totally inferior species.

Only 10 real people post here, the rest are LRC staff.

Here's a genuine simple riddle:

The Russian space agency announced that want to be the first country to successfully land an astronaunt on the sun and safely return him back. How will they accomplish this? 🤔

Bad Wigins wrote:

Typical carelessness of the unregistered name user, doesn't suffer from looking stupid, just moves on to a different name. Totally inferior species.

Why do you insist on suffering?

Kids? As in goats? 2 of them? You are a lucky person.

its just obvious wrote:

I have two kids, one is a girl. What is the probability that the other kid is a boy?

its just obvious wrote:

Hello OP.... wrote:

Explain your answer. I think people have proven you wrong.

I am very surprised so many had so much trouble with this. Let me restate the problem exactly as I stated it, "I have two kids, one is a girl. What is the probability that the other kid is a boy?"

The problem is very clearly stated. I have two kids, one is a girl, what are the chances the the other child is a boy?

Lets look at all the combinations of my two kids:

Boy-Girl

Girl-Boy

Girl-Girl

Boy-Boy

Since one child is a girl, the Boy-Boy option is eliminated which leaves three options.

The chances are 1/3.

Close, but the answer is 2/3. If you eliminate the Girl-Girl combination, you are left with:

BG

GB

GG

Then, you can take one of the G's out of each combination since you know one of the kids is a girl. That leaves you with 2B's and 1 G.

I hate problems like this. It's clearly a 50% chance. I laugh at all these probability snobs who think "B/G" and "G/B" are two separate options.