$1K bet! 200lb multi-eventer to run sub 3hours

reed wrote:

you're screwed OP, he will do it in 2017 probably

What about that challenge LetsRun had for 200k for some guy to run 3:11:45!? The guy still couldn't do it. How much more incentive do you need for a slow time! $200k is a lot more than this bet and the guy could easily have done it losing some weight.

I think OP is safe.

Frabbit wrote:

Update:

He ran 1:34mid for a half marathon last weekend. He started at 1:30 pace for fun for the first half and then had to take a walking break a bit after midway. Overall he was 2nd in the race.

I feel a bit more confident on my side of the bet after this performance since the transition from half-marathon to full is quite difficult. Thoughts?

sub 3:00 isn't a cakewalk. You need a 1:23 half. 1:34 half is a terrible time. I also know plenty of 1:27 half marathoners that can't break 3:05.

Remember, he has until 2019 and has only lost ~10lbs so far from his 195+lbs start.

He will easily win.

Is the OP rojo? Only rojo makes dumb bets like this.

Are you Joking? Sub 3 is a joke! It is equivilant in athletic aptitude to a 12.6 100m or 60s 400m. Might be reasonably tough for a female but for an athletic guy will be a walk in the park. The only way he won't do it is if he gains weight, stops training or gets injured.

flashback to 2015 wrote:

sub 3:00 isn't a cakewalk. You need a 1:23 half. 1:34 half is a terrible time. I also know plenty of 1:27 half marathoners that can't break 3:05.

I think it could either way. But clearly that 10k that he just ran is very good and also you saying that he got under 190 in weight also doesn't look good for you. And his other running PRs indicate that he has talent at running.

You might have had a better chance if he had a stockier type of body. If he has a long and lanky body, that's another plus for him. He's also got age working for him. If he was 30, it would be just another barrier. You gave him a generous amount of time to go for it.

Sub 3 is a Joke? Only on letsrun. You gave him enough time to make it doable. The question is it worth totally changing his body and the work that goes into it. How badly does he want to win this bet. He might be thinking that all this running is too punishing and he's feeling lethargic and looking gaunt. I say he gets hurt and doesnt do it.

Ultradude wrote:

My take is this guy has the capacity to run sub-3. But it will take a big training effort on his part and he will suffer a lot that last 10K to get the sub-3. Thus, if he gets it he will have more than earned the $1K.

This is how I feel about it too. With weight loss and training there's no doubt in my mind that he is capable of doing it. But it'll be tough and require some consistency and determination.

Get him drunk and get him to knock up a girl that wants a baby and you will have this bet won.

Update:

Multi-eventer ran today in a large city half-marathon. Weather conditions were quite good. He ran 1:31.high .

This time he didn't take a break and presumably gave a solid effort. However, I watched the last 500m and to be honest it looked like he wasn't as fatigued as he should be at the end of a race. Still I'm confident since winning the bet would require running nearly 2 minutes faster back-to-back and seems to be out of reach at the moment. Remember, he has until end of 2019.

Some stats:

Weight today: 183lb. I believe he was down to mid 170s at some point in the summer, but then drank too much.

Mileage: Fairly consistently around 100K/wk

Plot-twist

Here's the most exciting update. During lunch afterwards we were talking about our chances for the bet and we each seemed confident. So we added more to the stakes. He will attempt his first marathon in a low-key race (very few sub 3hr runners) this coming spring. If he runs sub 3, I will pay him an additional $1000. If he runs and is slower than 3hrs, he pays me $100. If he does not run for any reason, he pays me $50.

So Letsrun... am I still safe?

If he's already consistently running 100km weekly and can only muster a 1:31 half after a 1:34 a full five months ago, things are looking good for you.

.... I forgot to mention - the fact that you are talking in km for training and today was the half, I am assuming it was Scotiabank in Toronto. Am I correct?

my two cents.... wrote:

.... I forgot to mention - the fact that you are talking in km for training and today was the half, I am assuming it was Scotiabank in Toronto. Am I correct?

Lol yep, excellent deduction skills.

You are probably safe on the spring bet. But if he continues his current training for several more months, then ups the mileage/cross-training, and watches the diet, his current trajectory indicates he is on track by 2019. A sub-1:25:30 half, along with the weekly base mileage and long runs are required to go sub-3.

Frabbit wrote:

my two cents.... wrote:

.... I forgot to mention - the fact that you are talking in km for training and today was the half, I am assuming it was Scotiabank in Toronto. Am I correct?

Lol yep, excellent deduction skills.

I'm also guessing the Spring marathon is going to be Mississauga.

my two cents.... wrote:

I'm also guessing the Spring marathon is going to be Mississauga.

Actually it will be an even smaller marathon with less than 150 entrants in the marathon.

Frabbit wrote:

my two cents.... wrote:

I'm also guessing the Spring marathon is going to be Mississauga.

Actually it will be an even smaller marathon with less than 150 entrants in the marathon.

Fewer.

Should have stated that he needed to weigh over 200 lbs the day before the race.

Simple answer to this is do a Fr. Horan in it if he is anywhere close at 20 miles.