$1K bet! 200lb multi-eventer to run sub 3hours

Yes, you are screwed. A sub-3 hour should be doable for him with his athletic background and you gave him way too much time to lose weight. What were you thinking giving him 2 years to do it and only betting on a sub-3? Lots of athletic people do sub-3.

It was 3 years 2 months and a few days, not 2 years.

Yes, you are screwed. Your only hope is to go double or nothing on a faster target or a shorter deadline.

It was actually 40:51.

He also has a half coming up in a few weeks.

Assuming losing $1k won't put you out on the street, this still seems like a good value bet.

Yes, I'm 100% he CAN break 3 before the end of 2019, but I think there are enough variables at play here that there is at least a 51% chance that he does not: He could get injured, he could go out too hard, it could be terrible weather, he could get delayed by a train on the course, etc...

The bet doesn't have any limitations on the number of times he's allowed to race though.

I think almost ANYONE who wants to can make a sub-3 with proper training , rest, nutrition, in 1 year... most of it its just doing lots of easy to intermediate level miles... yo just lost a 1000..

Try to buy out for 300

40:nn or 41:nn suggest he's on the right track aerobically

Whole different ballgame to translate that to a sub 3, I'd be a little worried but not too much honestly

Did you make EPO legal or illegal for this bet?

My take is this guy has the capacity to run sub-3. But it will take a big training effort on his part and he will suffer a lot that last 10K to get the sub-3. Thus, if he gets it he will have more than earned the $1K.

You're still safe.

hank hill wrote:

I think almost ANYONE who wants to can make a sub-3 with proper training , rest, nutrition, in 1 year... most of it its just doing lots of easy to intermediate level miles... yo just lost a 1000..

This is the exact training plan he's on with one long run a week.

Just food for thought, with those PRs, he most definitely was not an "excellent" decathlete, unless he has some phenomenal throw PRs and hurdles. His HJ is solid for collegiate level decathletes, but his lj, 100m, and 400m are all well below average.

you're screwed OP, he will do it in 2017 probably

The good news is you have that long to save the money. (or is it payable the day he breaks 3?)

Keep us up to date.

Buy low sell high wrote:

The good news is you have that long to save the money. (or is it payable the day he breaks 3?)

Keep us up to date.

The amount is payable the day he breaks 3hrs. Another condition is that the race must be a Boston qualifier eligible course.

I'll definitely post updates for LR!

Update:

He ran 1:34mid for a half marathon last weekend. He started at 1:30 pace for fun for the first half and then had to take a walking break a bit after midway. Overall he was 2nd in the race.

I feel a bit more confident on my side of the bet after this performance since the transition from half-marathon to full is quite difficult. Thoughts?

He will EASILY do it.

On mercier tables a 3 hour marathon = 12.6 100m, 60s 400m, 1.56 high jump etc.

3 hours is a joke to anyone remotely athletic. The reason why it's a "standard" in marathon running is that everyone and his dog has run a marathon - it's diluted with so many unathletic people.