this one looks better:
NNW wind sounds good too
So the high is supposed to increase from 48 today to 69 on Monday. That totally bites!!
They're bound to be wrong, but it could just as likely be 59 as 79.
What kind of idiots would possibly look at a weather forecast that is 5 days out? IT IS TOTALLY MEANINGLESS.
It wasn't meaningless last year. The seven-day forecasts totally nailed the race-day temperature spike.
The kind of idiots that are leaving tomorrow and will be there for five days and don't live there and want to know what they should bring with them.
I have seen the forecast be as much as 25 degrees off from as soon as 12 hours out. So if they tell you it is going to be 50 degrees, then pack for anywhere from 25 to 75. If that is helpful, then use it. Anything else is a waste of time.
I flew in yesterday and it was snow flurries as we we getting off the plane. Definitely colder than expected. The weather channel has the forecast here for mid 40's, maybe climbing into mid 50's on Sunday and then mid 40's and cloudy on Monday.
fargo wrote:
What kind of idiots would possibly look at a weather forecast that is 5 days out? IT IS TOTALLY MEANINGLESS.
What kind of idiot doesn't understand the word "forecast"?
Nobody expects it to be right on with 100% certainty, but a meteorological forecast is a hell of a lot better than a random guess or stupid superstition.
So the standard deviation on the temperature 5 days out may be 5 degrees and so there may be a 5% chance that the forecast is more than 10 off in either direction. That doesn't mean you should disregard the forecast. The directional indicators are still pretty confident, as far as when a weather front might pass through the area, the severity of weather it will bring with it, etc.
Well here is your accuracy. Yesterday the forecast had a high of 69 degrees on Patriots day. Today the forecast has the high at 73 degrees for Patriots day. At an increase of 4 degrees a day an additional 4 days until the event tells us it could be as warm as 89 degrees. I understand totally what a long range forecast means. NOTHING.
Kind of a cool weather map here:
http://weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/nemetroWeek.php?page=1&element=MaxT
Looks like the high temp listed for Monday is 65 and no rain.
It now says 72 degrees.
A high of 69??? Anyone complaining of that certainly wasn't out there last year....
AH wrote:
A high of 69??? Anyone complaining of that certainly wasn't out there last year....
No, not a high of 69 degrees, but a FORECAST high of 69. I don't like the way the FORECAST high has been creeping up every day, since every day closer increases the probability that they will be close to right.
69 wouldn't be terrible, but that's just the FORECAST.
We're still 4 days out, so it could be anywhere from 50 to 90.