If you only stuck to historical facts, I would not respond. Your arguments, novel hypotheses, and other explanations seem to contain as much fiction as fact.
The steroid era did exist in the ’80s, mainly for sprints, and power events, especially for the women.
The EPO era did exist, most notably in cycling.
You are the only one linking steroids to distance performances in the ’80s.
You are the only one saying the reason non-Africans did not benefit from EPO, is that they really did, but they stopped taking steroids, so we just don’t see it.
When Ross Tucker talks about steroids in the ’80s, he points us to records still surviving from the ‘80s: namely women’s sprint and power events, and the men’s discus.
When you read this thread and others, everyone else describes EPO as a “game changerâ€, or as a “high octane†drug, or talk about the "synergistic effects" of “EPO + steroids†in “high respondersâ€.
You tell us, in a new theory unique to you, that it is not much different than “low octane†steroids in the ‘80s.
When you drift so far away from historical facts, and you tend to drift farther than everyone else, no one else is copying you.
We’ve seen Paula’s blood values — the “pseudo-experts†here have concluded they do not indicate EPO. Only you said that 2012 indicated EPO use, while initial “pseudo-experts†said this value was the least suspicious.
I claimed, that for whatever reasons, we have not seen EPO working for Europeans (and all non-Africans) at the top, for all distance events for two decades. The exceptions are very small in both quantity and quality.
“Little progress†or “no progress†doesn’t depend on my mood, but the event and the country. Generally when we look at progressions of non-Africans to 2009, compared to the pre-EPO 1985, it ranges from 0-1% across the board, for all distance events, for two decades, with the exception of the half marathon. Compare this to the 4-6%, across the board, by hundreds of East Africans and tens of Moroccans for the same time period, and estimates here that EPO should provide up to 6% improvements in high responders.
Looking specifically at USA for 10000m, the only Americans running faster than Mark Nenow’s 27:22 were East African Americans Meb (Eritrean) and Abdi (Somalian). Then, after the ABP in 2009, only Solinsky and Rupp start running faster. Worldwide, no non-African ran sub-27:00 until Solinsky in 2010, while East Africans broke 27 in 1993.
This is not a cherry-picked, but nearly universal observation for two decades for all distance events.
If a high-octane endurance running drug, bringing up to 6% benefit existed, top athletes representing 85% of the global population either were not high responders, or showed amazing restraint to not even try it, unlike cyclists, while East Africans were “changing the gameâ€. I find either scenario “ludicrousâ€.
It’s sad, in a kind of pathetic way, to see you write I’m artificially decreasing sample size. My claims of non-performance come from historical performance data for a period of over two decades, for the fastest performers. It includes all performances over two decades.
When I’m making specific observations about the dearth of performance improvements of non-African males, women and Africans cannot be intellectually honestly held up as exceptions.
On the contrary, lumping women, especially women known to take EPO and steroids, and race walkers in with the men, artificially skews any statistics about the prevalence of blood doping among top podium finishers.
It would be interesting to see a more complete breakdown of the Sunday Times collection of “suspicious†statistics for podium finishers, if we removed the Russian (and other Eastern) women, and race-walkers, to get a sense of how much the overall prevalence drops for the rest of the population.
I would be happy to include the women, but in their own context. As we have seen from the ‘80s steroids records, women are high responders to steroids.
If we had more data, I would be happy to include the East Africans and North Africans too. I only broke non-Africans out, NOT to draw doping conclusions about East and North Africans, but to look at claims that East Africans respond to EPO like “everyone else†in the context of “everyone elseâ€.
Again, you stand alone, offering this unique explanation.
I note here that we can see as early as 1981, Kenya and Ethiopia starting to dominate cross-country. Ethiopia beat a strong US team, and Kenya placed third. Non-African nations have never recovered.
While you argue here that East Africans were at war, or were starving, and didn’t take steroids in the ‘80s, others have asked me, how do I know they weren’t already doping in 1981 too?
You have no clue how much restraint of shown to remain polite. I agree you look bad when responding, but don’t blame that on me. If anything I feel like I’ve artificially increased your credibility, by responding to you, not having learned the lesson offered by Lord Robert May.