Interesting theory on polling under estimating Trump support presented here. Essentially, "people with no friends don't respond to polls and prefer Trump".
Interesting theory on polling under estimating Trump support presented here. Essentially, "people with no friends don't respond to polls and prefer Trump".
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
I have four siblings & they all voted for Trump. That's 5 (including myself) plus 3 spouses= 8 for Trump
So, 2 from your family + 8 from mine = 10 for Trump
Trump wins 10-9
KAG2020
^ A gleeful reminder that biff and the idiot siblings are in pure despair.
agip wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
Maybe we are seeing who is in control after all, the GOP and not him. I hope they pi$$ him off enough to run independent.
after the last 4 years we've learned that national security is very, very low on captain bone spur's priority list. And you know what is lower? What experts think about him.
He finally signaled defeat because of Michigan and PA certifying, the embarrassment of Rudy's press conferences and failures, and hmmm there was something else but I can't remember it.
But experts telling him he is endangering the nation? That stuff is not on his radar. He's been putting up a middle finger to experts since the 80s when Manhattan real estate people snubbed him because he was coarse and ridiculous.
Truth be told he is paralyzed by embarrassment and butthurtness and he won't recovery easily. For the rest of his life he will be reminded that he fell all the way to the bottom and will go down as one of the biggest losers in US political history. After he finishes watching Biden assemble his new administration without being able to do anything to stop it, he will hear about the massive crowd at inauguration. After that Fauci will continue to be on TV and will go down as the big hero of the COVID fight. Trump's twitter following will dwindle while Biden's grows. He will fail to grab any meaningful headlines after January and will have to deal with constant waves of embarrassment as we all watch him lose trial after trial. A catastrophic loss.
Did polling underestimate Trump support or was it actually Trump who pulled off massive fraudulent votes in places like Florida and North Carolina?
Think about it. Trump deflects on everything.
I'm no puppet. You're a puppet.
Blaming fake news when he's the one spreading fake news.
He is always accusing his adversaries of fraud as he surrounds himself with people who go down for fraud.
It would not surprise me if Trump and his underlings found every method they could to exploit the election and voting system to their advantage.
Biden won, so he's not going to bother looking into any potential fraud in states where he lost but was projected to win.
If there was any election fraud, there is no way it was one sided with only Democrats doing it and Trump supporters being above it.
agip wrote:
after the last 4 years we've learned that national security is very, very low on captain bone spur's priority list. And you know what is lower? What experts think about him.
He finally signaled defeat because of Michigan and PA certifying, the embarrassment of Rudy's press conferences and failures, and hmmm there was something else but I can't remember it.
But experts telling him he is endangering the nation? That stuff is not on his radar. He's been putting up a middle finger to experts since the 80s when Manhattan real estate people snubbed him because he was coarse and ridiculous.
It's true that he doesn't care about the things that he should be as President but I think what finally got him to allow GSA to ascertain the election was the money/business people started to lean on him.
As long as he's acting like he'll still be in office the next 4 years the longer it will be before any kind of relief spending will be approved by congress and people will have less money to spend. It's not that those business people care about the country or the people who inhabit it. But broke people don't buy stuff and if people don't buy stuff the company's stock goes down.
L L wrote:
If there was any election fraud, there is no way it was one sided with only Democrats doing it and Trump supporters being above it.
The only cases I've seen so far where there was actually fraud discovered, and will likely be tried, during this cycle is one guy who tried to get a additional mail ballot in his ex-wife's name and another doing the same except he was using his mothers name. Cant' remember if the mom was dead or not. And they were both Trumpers.
The narrative, just like in 2016, is that the polls were wrong. The truth is that the results nationally and in all of the battleground states (minus Wisconsin....again!) were within the standard polling error. OH was another oddball. RCP avg Trump +1. Result Trump 8.2!!!
Alan
Flagpole wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
It doesn't really matter. By 2030, nobody will want to buy a gas powered car for transportation. They will only be for hobbyists and nostalgia. Kind of like horses are today.
And overall, only wealthy individuals will want to own their own car. It will be a lot cheaper to hail a robotaxi when you want to go somewhere.
I'm with you on the electric cars, though perhaps not QUITE as drastic a change as you suggest, but I don't think Americans will get rid of their want/need to own a car...not be 2030 anyway. People will still be going to work every day, want to go to the grocery store or get fast food whenever they want...they will want to own a car.
We will see. But let's face it, cars are incredibly expensive to own. And young people especially will opt out.
Young people today are already starting out with massive student debt. Or they didn't go to college and they have almost no disposable income. For these folks, it's very hard to afford a car. They buy a cheap used car out of necessity. But what happens when car ownership is no longer a necessity?
In that case, young folks will opt out and they probably won't ever see a need to have their own car, even when they can easily afford it. They will be used to just hopping in a RoboTaxi.
It really comes down to the cost projections. There is a lot of good data out there that shows reliance on a RoboTaxi will be a lot cheaper than owning your own car. If that comes to pass most cars will be owned by fleets rather than individuals.
Btw, you can still go to the grocery or go to the McDonald's drive thru in a RoboTaxi.
agip wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
Maybe we are seeing who is in control after all, the GOP and not him. I hope they pi$$ him off enough to run independent.
after the last 4 years we've learned that national security is very, very low on captain bone spur's priority list. And you know what is lower? What experts think about him.
He finally signaled defeat because of Michigan and PA certifying, the embarrassment of Rudy's press conferences and failures, and hmmm there was something else but I can't remember it.
But experts telling him he is endangering the nation? That stuff is not on his radar. He's been putting up a middle finger to experts since the 80s when Manhattan real estate people snubbed him because he was coarse and ridiculous.
Correct.
And I would go even further. The head of the GSA said she was not directly pressured to make a decision one way or the other. I take her at her word. I think the only pressure she felt was indirect pressure. So when Michigan finally certified, that was the final straw. She decided on her own to open up the transition process to Biden. When Trump got wind of it he decided to make it look like it was his idea.
But Trump has still has not conceded and he never will. It's just that his efforts to overturn the election have unraveled and he knows that things are out of his control. So he will do whatever he can to save face before he flees to Turkey.
Fat hurts wrote:
But Trump has still has not conceded and he never will. It's just that his efforts to overturn the election have unraveled and he knows that things are out of his control. So he will do whatever he can to save face before he flees to Turkey.
I wish he would disappear into the far east of Turkey.
Grumble, grumble, grumble wrote:
L L wrote:
If there was any election fraud, there is no way it was one sided with only Democrats doing it and Trump supporters being above it.
The only cases I've seen so far where there was actually fraud discovered, and will likely be tried, during this cycle is one guy who tried to get a additional mail ballot in his ex-wife's name and another doing the same except he was using his mothers name. Cant' remember if the mom was dead or not. And they were both Trumpers.
This was a little different because it was actually after Election Day and the guys got caught before they carried out their plan, but there were the two QAnon lunatics from Virginia who drove up to Philadelphia with an assault rifle, a couple of other guns, and a bunch of fake ballots. They got caught a block from the site where ballots were being counted. Presumably, they were going to do something fraudulent with those fake ballots.
But I don't think fraud, perpetrated by either side, is/was a big issue. This election was probably the most closely monitored in history, given Trump's whining about fraud months before the election was even held. It would have been really hard to get away with any kind of significant fraud. The bigger issues that may have affected this election were misinformation/disinformation that impacted peoples' votes and the obstacles to voting put in place mostly by the Republicans.
Runningart2004 wrote:
The narrative, just like in 2016, is that the polls were wrong. The truth is that the results nationally and in all of the battleground states (minus Wisconsin....again!) were within the standard polling error. OH was another oddball. RCP avg Trump +1. Result Trump 8.2!!!
Alan
I get that.
But Trumpers think there was fraud.
Assuming there was fraud, wouldn't logic dictate that fraud would be more likely to change the results away from where the polls trended?
Biden didn't have a single upset win. Even Georgia was 50/50 by election day.
Trump still had a few upsets in his favor and some states Biden won were closer in Trump's favor.
And you point out how Ohio went way in favor of Trump as that was near 50/50.
Again. I'm not saying there was fraud.
Trumpers are.
And they think 100% of that fraud was committed by the party lead by the guy who does not lie all of the time.
SeattleSilver wrote:
After a large number of GOP former security experts wrote that Trump was delaying national security by delaying the transition, Trump had no choice but to commence transition. If he wants to preserve the ability to run in 2024, he can't have a charge that he weakened our security in 2020 hanging over his head.
Frankly, I hope he is disinterested or incapacitated by 20204.
I think he will be both.
Trollminator wrote:
agip wrote:
after the last 4 years we've learned that national security is very, very low on captain bone spur's priority list. And you know what is lower? What experts think about him.
He finally signaled defeat because of Michigan and PA certifying, the embarrassment of Rudy's press conferences and failures, and hmmm there was something else but I can't remember it.
But experts telling him he is endangering the nation? That stuff is not on his radar. He's been putting up a middle finger to experts since the 80s when Manhattan real estate people snubbed him because he was coarse and ridiculous.
Truth be told he is paralyzed by embarrassment and butthurtness and he won't recovery easily. For the rest of his life he will be reminded that he fell all the way to the bottom and will go down as one of the biggest losers in US political history. After he finishes watching Biden assemble his new administration without being able to do anything to stop it, he will hear about the massive crowd at inauguration. After that Fauci will continue to be on TV and will go down as the big hero of the COVID fight. Trump's twitter following will dwindle while Biden's grows. He will fail to grab any meaningful headlines after January and will have to deal with constant waves of embarrassment as we all watch him lose trial after trial. A catastrophic loss.
I wish they weren't building an inauguration stage, and I hope there isn't a crowd for his swearing in. We are still in a pandemic, and it's only getting worse. I couldn't care less if Trump them talks about his lack of a crowd.
What likelihood is do the Trumpettes have of overturning their Pennsylvania election lawsuit loss?
"The likelihood that they would have a case is the same likelihood that we have left an enchanted village of Trump voters uncounted somewhere in Pennsylvania." - Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor, John Fetterman
What lessons are there regarding future elections and similar challenges?
"I think that the only defining lesson for any future campaign that would try to do this is you can't be as sad and demented as the Trump campaign has performed" - Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor, John Fetterman
///
Ouch!
L L wrote:
Did polling underestimate Trump support or was it actually Trump who pulled off massive fraudulent votes in places like Florida and North Carolina?
Think about it. Trump deflects on everything.
I'm no puppet. You're a puppet.
Blaming fake news when he's the one spreading fake news.
He is always accusing his adversaries of fraud as he surrounds himself with people who go down for fraud.
It would not surprise me if Trump and his underlings found every method they could to exploit the election and voting system to their advantage.
Biden won, so he's not going to bother looking into any potential fraud in states where he lost but was projected to win.
If there was any election fraud, there is no way it was one sided with only Democrats doing it and Trump supporters being above it.
I agree generally with that statement, but it is SO hard to actually pull off voter fraud that makes a difference in a national election, even at the state level. What DOES work is voter suppression, and Republicans definitely engaged in that. But, as you said, Biden won, and that's what matters most.
Fat hurts wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
I'm with you on the electric cars, though perhaps not QUITE as drastic a change as you suggest, but I don't think Americans will get rid of their want/need to own a car...not be 2030 anyway. People will still be going to work every day, want to go to the grocery store or get fast food whenever they want...they will want to own a car.
We will see. But let's face it, cars are incredibly expensive to own. And young people especially will opt out.
Young people today are already starting out with massive student debt. Or they didn't go to college and they have almost no disposable income. For these folks, it's very hard to afford a car. They buy a cheap used car out of necessity. But what happens when car ownership is no longer a necessity?
In that case, young folks will opt out and they probably won't ever see a need to have their own car, even when they can easily afford it. They will be used to just hopping in a RoboTaxi.
It really comes down to the cost projections. There is a lot of good data out there that shows reliance on a RoboTaxi will be a lot cheaper than owning your own car. If that comes to pass most cars will be owned by fleets rather than individuals.
Btw, you can still go to the grocery or go to the McDonald's drive thru in a RoboTaxi.
I don't agree with you that "cars" are incredibly expensive to own. I also don't agree with your assertion that all young people are starting out with massive student loan debt.
To wit:
1) My daughter graduated from an elite college (and I mean super elite) in 2018. She opted to go there over some places where she would have had a full-ride academic scholarship. Because of that, we required her to take out some loans AND help pay for it with working while in college. She paid $8,000 of her own money she made working, and then she took out a total of $15,000 in loans...that's it. She has already paid back $2,000 of it.
2) Her boyfriend that she met at the same elite college, has a total of $20,000 in student loans. They are planning to get engaged soon, and I expect they will be married sometime in 2021. Together, their salaries are already over $90,000, and he's in a field where he will be making over $100,000 by himself maybe even within 3 years.
3) I sold my 2017 Kia Soul to my daughter recently for $9,000, exactly what it was worth. She works from home, so she hardly drives it, and her payment to us for it is just nothing for her -- $150 a month. She has already said she might just pay it all off in one lump sum soon.
So, elite colleges for both of them and a newish used car for her (he also works from home and doesn't currently own a car, but he could easily afford one, even a new car).
I realize anecdotal evidence isn't the end all, but she's hardly alone. I just helped one of my clients in Nebraska hire a new college grad, and he's getting $55,000 to start in an area that has a very low cost of living. He can easily go buy a new car. A 2020 Honda Fit can be had for $17,000. Great car that will go $200,000 easily and doesn't cost much.
Flagpole wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
We will see. But let's face it, cars are incredibly expensive to own. And young people especially will opt out.
Young people today are already starting out with massive student debt. Or they didn't go to college and they have almost no disposable income. For these folks, it's very hard to afford a car. They buy a cheap used car out of necessity. But what happens when car ownership is no longer a necessity?
In that case, young folks will opt out and they probably won't ever see a need to have their own car, even when they can easily afford it. They will be used to just hopping in a RoboTaxi.
It really comes down to the cost projections. There is a lot of good data out there that shows reliance on a RoboTaxi will be a lot cheaper than owning your own car. If that comes to pass most cars will be owned by fleets rather than individuals.
Btw, you can still go to the grocery or go to the McDonald's drive thru in a RoboTaxi.
I don't agree with you that "cars" are incredibly expensive to own. I also don't agree with your assertion that all young people are starting out with massive student loan debt.
To wit:
1) My daughter graduated from an elite college (and I mean super elite) in 2018. She opted to go there over some places where she would have had a full-ride academic scholarship. Because of that, we required her to take out some loans AND help pay for it with working while in college. She paid $8,000 of her own money she made working, and then she took out a total of $15,000 in loans...that's it. She has already paid back $2,000 of it.
2) Her boyfriend that she met at the same elite college, has a total of $20,000 in student loans. They are planning to get engaged soon, and I expect they will be married sometime in 2021. Together, their salaries are already over $90,000, and he's in a field where he will be making over $100,000 by himself maybe even within 3 years.
3) I sold my 2017 Kia Soul to my daughter recently for $9,000, exactly what it was worth. She works from home, so she hardly drives it, and her payment to us for it is just nothing for her -- $150 a month. She has already said she might just pay it all off in one lump sum soon.
So, elite colleges for both of them and a newish used car for her (he also works from home and doesn't currently own a car, but he could easily afford one, even a new car).
I realize anecdotal evidence isn't the end all, but she's hardly alone. I just helped one of my clients in Nebraska hire a new college grad, and he's getting $55,000 to start in an area that has a very low cost of living. He can easily go buy a new car. A 2020 Honda Fit can be had for $17,000. Great car that will go $200,000 easily and doesn't cost much.
200,000 miles