So some 28 million people have voted already, and it's reasonable to think more than 50 million will have voted by the end of the week. (I'll be one.)
But it seems likely that more than 150 million presidential ballots total will be cast, so a solid majority of votes could still be made in November. This year's "October surprise" ("Hunter Biden!!") hasn't gained much traction, but there's time for another--and I think we'll probably see one.
this is it wrote:
Better win the election before you start picking the press secretary.
Solid point.
CNN put up a nice little segment where they show Biden with a solid 290 electoral votes right now to 163 for Trump with a number of states up for grabs.
Then it showed video of four years ago where they gave Hillary 307 electoral votes at this point, with an even more difficult path for Trump to win.
They gave her PA, MI, WI and FL and not as a toss up.
We know the story that Trump flipped all four plus won every toss up - NC, AZ, OH and UT who was trending third party. That was quite a run.
Differences from now and then:
Biden's lead in those close states are bigger than Hillary's lead.
No big talk of third party candidates getting a lot of votes.
Biden being a more likeable candidate than Hillary.
Trump was running on an idea of what he'd do. Now he's running on a record as an impeached president with scandals as a leader and a terrible pandemic response.
Enthusiasm to vote him out is very strong, from moderates to liberals to conservatives all over.
Expanded mail-in voting is making it easier to vote and Trump has made the error of telling people not to trust it. He is forcing his voters to stand in extra long lines while Biden voters are using all means necessary to get their vote in.
What Trump has going for him:
He will get more votes than last time as he has built up his cult. But Biden will get more votes than Hillary did. So Trump needs a lot more votes than last time.
He's always going to get the voter who would never vote Democrat.
The economy was going well for a bit and many will give him a pass on the pandemic hurting the economy.
Voter suppression works pretty well.
I think the real big difference is that the Bernie people will all vote for Biden and the Lincoln Project is aiming to get a lot of Republicans to vote for Biden.
America Wins wrote:
Good Morning - only 15 days for liberals to peddle fake polls.
America has awoken.
Enjoy!!!
Correct!!!
https://twitter.com/RealAPolitics/status/1317942143026139136?s=20Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://nypost.com/2020/10/19/john-ratcliffe-info-on-hunter-biden-laptop-not-russian-disinformation/
Boy, good thing Hunter Biden isn't running for office!
Fat hurts wrote:
In August, Sean Hannity asked president antichrist what he would do in a second term. This was his response:
One of the things that will be really great -- the word experience is still good, I always say talent is more important than experience, I've always said that -- but the word experience is a very important word, a very important meaning.
I never did this before, never slept over in Washington. I was in Washington maybe 17 times and all of a sudden I'm the president of the United States, you know the story, riding down Pennsylvania Avenue with our first lady and I say this is great but I didn't know very many people in Washington, it wasn't my thing. I was from Manhattan, from New York, and now I know everybody. And I have great people in the administration. You make some mistakes, like an idiot like Bolton, you don't have to drop bombs on everybody.
I lost some brain cells just reading that from our Moron-in Chief.
Flagpole wrote:
this is it wrote:
Better win the election before you start picking the press secretary.
Solid point.
well sure
I'm very interested in what Pete does - to my judgment he's clearly the smartest, most talented politician out. But he's in a jam - a Dem in Indiana. So I wonder what he can do.
He's a counter argument to a main theory I have: that politics are so awful right now that very few high-quality people go into that field of work. Let's face it, there are very few impressive politicians. I mean you get paid under-market wages, you have to spend time fund raising almost every day, the racial dynamics of Dem politics are a bloody nightmare, and you can lose your job every few years. Social media has made politics ridiculous. Easier to make 3x the money in the private sector, and not have to call people and beg for money.
But here's pete, who is the quality of anyone at a tech co or bank...going into politics.
I'm very curious to see if he can make a career out of it and how.
15 days to go and still no tightening in the race, per 538.
+10.7% in the polling average
88% for Joe in the forecast.
1101 wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
https://twitter.com/meidastouch/status/1318069561078415360?s=21This ^ seems correct.
This is probably an unpopular view around here, but I have always felt sorry for Trump and the whole Trump family. They are so deeply, tragically flawed. And I suspect that it originates in never having been loved and being quite simply incapable of imagining what the concept of love even means.
I started out thinking that way about the Trump family, especially about Melania, but their continued actions of incompetence, cruelty, lying, and unabashed grifting has made me change my mind, even with regard to Melania. There are lots of flawed people who recognize that they are flawed, and they do all they can to try to fix those flaws. The Trumps do not recognize it. Unfortunately they are in a position of power...not just Donnie, but all of the idiot adult children. We can not risk having another Trump rise to the level of President. At some point, feeling sorry for someone who wasn't loved has to end when what they do is so dangerous.
L L wrote:
https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/10/18/electoral-college-2020-compared-to-2016-election-biden-trump-king-magic-wall-ip-vpx.cnnCNN put up a nice little segment where they show Biden with a solid 290 electoral votes right now to 163 for Trump with a number of states up for grabs.
Then it showed video of four years ago where they gave Hillary 307 electoral votes at this point, with an even more difficult path for Trump to win.
They gave her PA, MI, WI and FL and not as a toss up.
We know the story that Trump flipped all four plus won every toss up - NC, AZ, OH and UT who was trending third party. That was quite a run.
Differences from now and then:
Biden's lead in those close states are bigger than Hillary's lead.
No big talk of third party candidates getting a lot of votes.
Biden being a more likeable candidate than Hillary.
Trump was running on an idea of what he'd do. Now he's running on a record as an impeached president with scandals as a leader and a terrible pandemic response.
Enthusiasm to vote him out is very strong, from moderates to liberals to conservatives all over.
Expanded mail-in voting is making it easier to vote and Trump has made the error of telling people not to trust it. He is forcing his voters to stand in extra long lines while Biden voters are using all means necessary to get their vote in.
What Trump has going for him:
He will get more votes than last time as he has built up his cult. But Biden will get more votes than Hillary did. So Trump needs a lot more votes than last time.
He's always going to get the voter who would never vote Democrat.
The economy was going well for a bit and many will give him a pass on the pandemic hurting the economy.
Voter suppression works pretty well.
I think the real big difference is that the Bernie people will all vote for Biden and the Lincoln Project is aiming to get a lot of Republicans to vote for Biden.
This is a good analysis. I'm not so sure that Trump will get more votes than he did last time though. Possible, especially since the third-party candidates aren't as strong as then. It will be interesting to see all the final numbers.
Flagpole wrote:
1101 wrote:
This ^ seems correct.
This is probably an unpopular view around here, but I have always felt sorry for Trump and the whole Trump family. They are so deeply, tragically flawed. And I suspect that it originates in never having been loved and being quite simply incapable of imagining what the concept of love even means.
I started out thinking that way about the Trump family, especially about Melania, but their continued actions of incompetence, cruelty, lying, and unabashed grifting has made me change my mind, even with regard to Melania. There are lots of flawed people who recognize that they are flawed, and they do all they can to try to fix those flaws. The Trumps do not recognize it. Unfortunately they are in a position of power...not just Donnie, but all of the idiot adult children. We can not risk having another Trump rise to the level of President. At some point, feeling sorry for someone who wasn't loved has to end when what they do is so dangerous.
agip wrote:
"Internally, the Trump campaign is increasingly worried that the president's chances of winning North Carolina, a state the team has heavily invested in and views as essential for Trump's path to victory, has all but evaporated. The campaign had viewed the state as "super safe" as recently as just a few weeks ago, sources told ABC News."
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-heads-final-campaign-stretch-forced-play-defense/story?id=73577704&cid=clicksource_4380645_7_three_posts_card_hed
Sounds like they were just telling him what he wanted to hear
Flagpole wrote:
1101 wrote:
This ^ seems correct.
This is probably an unpopular view around here, but I have always felt sorry for Trump and the whole Trump family. They are so deeply, tragically flawed. And I suspect that it originates in never having been loved and being quite simply incapable of imagining what the concept of love even means.
I started out thinking that way about the Trump family, especially about Melania, but their continued actions of incompetence, cruelty, lying, and unabashed grifting has made me change my mind, even with regard to Melania. There are lots of flawed people who recognize that they are flawed, and they do all they can to try to fix those flaws. The Trumps do not recognize it. Unfortunately they are in a position of power...not just Donnie, but all of the idiot adult children. We can not risk having another Trump rise to the level of President. At some point, feeling sorry for someone who wasn't loved has to end when what they do is so dangerous.
INCORRECT!
Having empathy toward another human being does not imply enabling their misdeeds. Lacking empathy for others, even deeply flawed others, makes us less human.
agip wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
Solid point.
well sure
I'm very interested in what Pete does - to my judgment he's clearly the smartest, most talented politician out. But he's in a jam - a Dem in Indiana. So I wonder what he can do.
He's a counter argument to a main theory I have: that politics are so awful right now that very few high-quality people go into that field of work. Let's face it, there are very few impressive politicians. I mean you get paid under-market wages, you have to spend time fund raising almost every day, the racial dynamics of Dem politics are a bloody nightmare, and you can lose your job every few years. Social media has made politics ridiculous. Easier to make 3x the money in the private sector, and not have to call people and beg for money.
But here's pete, who is the quality of anyone at a tech co or bank...going into politics.
I'm very curious to see if he can make a career out of it and how.
If he can win a senate race in Indiana then sky is the limit. I hope party leadership is working with him on strategy and funding for something like that. The guy has definitely earned their attention and support.. he even goes on FOX to slap them down when he feels like it.
*ahem* wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://nypost.com/2020/10/19/john-ratcliffe-info-on-hunter-biden-laptop-not-russian-disinformation/Boy, good thing Hunter Biden isn't running for office!
Yeah, such desperation from tzees to hang their hats on something that is not even directly about Joe. So we are supposed to be convinced not to vote for him because he supposedly lied about not having been involved in his son's business affairs??? Boy, that's really a game changer, it certainly convinces me to put my faith in trump, lol.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8513719/Joe-Bidens-niece-Caroline-33-arrested-year-DUI-year-probation.htmlFlagpole wrote:
I started out thinking that way about the Trump family, especially about Melania, but their continued actions of incompetence, cruelty, lying, and unabashed grifting has made me change my mind, even with regard to Melania. There are lots of flawed people who recognize that they are flawed, and they do all they can to try to fix those flaws. The Trumps do not recognize it. Unfortunately they are in a position of power...not just Donnie, but all of the idiot adult children. We can not risk having another Trump rise to the level of President. At some point, feeling sorry for someone who wasn't loved has to end when what they do is so dangerous.
LOL, refer to just about every trump-enabling republican and family member... you're looking more foolish every day even though that should not be possible.
1101 wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
I started out thinking that way about the Trump family, especially about Melania, but their continued actions of incompetence, cruelty, lying, and unabashed grifting has made me change my mind, even with regard to Melania. There are lots of flawed people who recognize that they are flawed, and they do all they can to try to fix those flaws. The Trumps do not recognize it. Unfortunately they are in a position of power...not just Donnie, but all of the idiot adult children. We can not risk having another Trump rise to the level of President. At some point, feeling sorry for someone who wasn't loved has to end when what they do is so dangerous.
INCORRECT!
Having empathy toward another human being does not imply enabling their misdeeds. Lacking empathy for others, even deeply flawed others, makes us less human.
I am feeling so sorry for poor crackhead & serial hooker banging Hunter.
https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2020/10/16/joe_bidens_boosters_wrote_his_prodigal_sons_entire_resume_125616.htmlFlagpole wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
In August, Sean Hannity asked president antichrist what he would do in a second term. This was his response:
I lost some brain cells just reading that from our Moron-in Chief.
The only thing Trumptards will do is pivot: point to gaffes made by Biden. Or talk about Hunter. or Hillary or Obama. Not a single person can defend the nonsense coming out of his mouth
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8513719/Joe-Bidens-niece-Caroline-33-arrested-year-DUI-year-probation.htmlFlagpole wrote:
I started out thinking that way about the Trump family, especially about Melania, but their continued actions of incompetence, cruelty, lying, and unabashed grifting has made me change my mind, even with regard to Melania. There are lots of flawed people who recognize that they are flawed, and they do all they can to try to fix those flaws. The Trumps do not recognize it. Unfortunately they are in a position of power...not just Donnie, but all of the idiot adult children. We can not risk having another Trump rise to the level of President. At some point, feeling sorry for someone who wasn't loved has to end when what they do is so dangerous.
You are SO desperate.