A few observations and thoughts:
Trump just instructed the RNC to pull the convention from Charlotte. That and Richard Burr's insider trading) will hurt him and Thom Tillis in North Carolina. The state was already trending towards Biden and the tech industry in NC has changed voter demographics substantially.
Defense Secretary Esper is publicly breaking with Trump on two fronts. First, he opposes using the US military against domestic civilians. Second, he claims that the WH told him that they were going to survey damage and talk to troops in Lafayette Park - no mention of the church/Bible photo op before taking that walk.
Steve King thoroughly defeated in his Iowa primary. Are conservative voters in the Midwest rejecting racist invective and conspiracy theories in lieu of more traditional conservative values? I don't expect this seat to go blue but, have rank and file Republicans had enough of crazy nationalism and want a return to a small government/low taxation/tradition platform?