Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

Argh, Trump... wrote:

Ugh. Trump can now send everyone with a cell phone an 'emergency' text anytime he sees fit. No way to turn it off. Barf.

You leftists have spent two years of your pathetic lives crying about POTUS. All of you -- agip (marxist teacher, God help our children), LL (loser loser), Flagpole (pathetic dad who spends all day crying on LRC), etc. Meanwhile, the United States is doing great!

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

The endless loop. They’re back on taxes again....

Hey, I'll agree with you that it is hardly news/anything new. Did ANYone not know that Trump was a trust-fund baby, who accomplished nothing on his own without Daddy's name and Daddy's help and Daddy's $ ?? (sound familiar by the way? It's W. Bush on steroids all over again. Republicans: ALWAYS the party of the rich and powerful)

Of course, we all already knew that. The Times just filled in some details.

But here's the thing: people like you Rigged pretended it wasn't true, and that his "good businessman sense" would make him a good president. Except he never had any good businessman sense. It was all Daddy, and when it wasn't, it was Donald going bankrupt and Daddy and others bailing him out.

I will admit he's a great conman. He definitely can fool some people into believing his lies and believing his bluster. Maybe there is *some small* amount of positive to that (not morally, but it can help one succeed at stuff). But the problem is now: he's president, and there's no Daddy to bail him out when his bluffs get called and his lies are exposed and his "sense" turns out to be completely irrational. At some point the pyramid of lies/deceptions/nonsense he built crumbles.

He will not survive his own "brilliance" and "sense" and self belief.

Racket wrote:

agip wrote:

chance of the senate flipping is the same as the odds trump would win in 2016. Per 538.

As for the 2020 dem candidate, I'm really hoping Beto loses in texas so he can run for prez. It's either him or Biden at this point, and I'm not sure biden can stand toe to to with trump. Beto can.

Haven't followed the Texas race much admittedly. Is Beto more like Bernie Sanders and trying to win off the Austin crowd or down the middle?

From reading his positions he’s definitely much more centrist.

Senate will likely stay GOP.

As far as the comment about “well the odds of the Dems taking the House are the same as Clinton winning 2016”....well the Odds of the GOP keeping the senate are about as much as Clinton winning 2016....

You can’t keep betting against 70-80% odds. 2016 was a strange anomaly. Normal coherent stable minded citizens understand this. Some state polls were inaccurate, but the results were still within the margin of error...except for I think WI. The national poll was spot on as Clinton won the popular vote by 2%. It was a weird election between two very disliked candidates.

Alan

Runningart2004 wrote:

Racket wrote:

Haven't followed the Texas race much admittedly. Is Beto more like Bernie Sanders and trying to win off the Austin crowd or down the middle?

From reading his positions he’s definitely much more centrist.

Senate will likely stay GOP.

As far as the comment about “well the odds of the Dems taking the House are the same as Clinton winning 2016”....well the Odds of the GOP keeping the senate are about as much as Clinton winning 2016....

You can’t keep betting against 70-80% odds. 2016 was a strange anomaly. Normal coherent stable minded citizens understand this. Some state polls were inaccurate, but the results were still within the margin of error...except for I think WI. The national poll was spot on as Clinton won the popular vote by 2%. It was a weird election between two very disliked candidates.

Alan

Makes you wonder how the likes of Gary and Righed will feel when he’s gone and we are back to “normal”. Gary thinks this was some sort of revolution and permanent change. He will be a broken victim.

It just keeps on seeping out..... yet another bad day for LRC's Lefties.

Baker resigned last year in disgrace... nice to see him coming clean now that the ship is sinking:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/top-fbi-lawyer-baker-offers-explosive-testimony-on-abnormal-handling-of-russia-probe-into-trump-campaign-lawmakers

Two more prosecutors leave Mueller... his team just keeps getting smaller and smaller:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-mueller-interview-negotiations-stall-as-2-more-prosecutors-leave-russia-probe

Mueller NOPE.

Clownpole DOPE.

Silly Willy wrote:

It just keeps on seeping out..... yet another bad day for LRC's Lefties.

Baker resigned last year in disgrace... nice to see him coming clean now that the ship is sinking:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/top-fbi-lawyer-baker-offers-explosive-testimony-on-abnormal-handling-of-russia-probe-into-trump-campaign-lawmakers

Two more prosecutors leave Mueller... his team just keeps getting smaller and smaller:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-mueller-interview-negotiations-stall-as-2-more-prosecutors-leave-russia-probe

Mueller NOPE.

Clownpole DOPE.

How stupid are you? Seriously, just how stupid are you?

Mueller is starting to wrap things up - hence the reduction in staff. And this is taken as some big Trump win to you?

Seriously, just how stupid are you?

Anyone who criticizes Nate Silver regarding 2016 is making a fool of themselves. I have no idea why anyone even attempts it. You might as well be volunteering a Jack O Lantern atop your head. Silver described everything perfectly in the final weeks of that campaign, that Hillary was favored but her lead was shaky and not even close to Obama's edge in 2012 or the nutcase 99.9% assertions from people like Sam Yang of the Princeton Election Consortium.

Silver both in print and during televised interviews described exactly how Trump could prevail...if there were small but consistent polling error toward his side in the pivotal swing states, especially in the upper midwest. That was hardly impossible because those states have similar demographic makeup. If a certain block of voter is being under represented, that figures to attach to state after state, not merely one of them.

I have wagered on politics since 1992. Prior to Nate Silver it was cupcakes. The odds were a joke, merely subjective stabs from oddsmakers who had no clue what they were doing. For example, they would put a money line on a 3 point lead in politics as if it were the same as a 3 point favorite in a football game. That is moronic but it went on for decades. Not until Nate Silver came along and unfortunately wised up the entire political oddsmaking world did all the bargains go away.

I'll never forget how sick I was in spring 2008 when suddenly this anonymous poster named Poblano was offering one sharp point after another on the progressive forums. He had Obama winning the nomination even while others were asserting Hillary still had the edge. Poblano had figured out the delegate math in the tiny caucus states and realized that Obama's edge in those states would outdistance Hillary's edge in the larger states.

I wish that guy had remained anonymous Poblano behind the scenes. But it was Nate Silver posting under pseudonym. Once he revealed as Nate Silver and began contributing to Mystery Pollster, then launched his own site, political wagering was never as simple again.

Although I have to say I am doing well on Predictit right now, due to basic stuff like Dr. Ford testifying. Scared conservatives somehow thought she would share their fear and run away.

Any pollster who had Trump favored in 2016 would have been a disgrace to the profession, and quickly out of work if he made the same mistake again. Underdogs win all the time. There is validity and interest level in picking an underdog to win. But to assert that underdog as the favorite is clown worthy, and destined to blow up in your face upon sufficient sampling size. I laugh at conservatives every day and I certainly laugh at anyone who thinks Trump was the rightful favorite in 2016.

***

Yesterday I posted and detailed that GOP polling was benefitting from Trump shutting up for 3 weeks. Beyond hilarious that within hours he couldn't resist returning to his true self and mocking Dr. Ford at the rally. That one rally alone is certain to reverse the favorable polling tide for the GOP.

BTW, Fox News has good reliable polls and their recent batch of senate polls are bad news for Democrats. I have been playing Democratic "No" on senate control on Predictit at 64 and 65 cents. I think I mentioned that here. Then yesterday I bumped up to 67 then 68 cents, swooping up most of those lots. Now others are loading up on the same side and the "No" is up to 72 cents.

I don't know how 538 came up with 34.3% on Democratic control as opening price but IMO it was a bad number. Those states simply have too many self-identified conservatives to tip as a block. Last I checked, 538 was down to 23.5%.

The House and Senate models on 538 are in their infancy and obviously works in progress. But overall Nate's work is exponentially superior to anything that preceded him. I speak not only for myself but also fellow political gamblers I have known since 1992. Several of them basically gave up once Nate entered the scene and "took away all the candy," to quote my friend Larry from Tennessee.

Great post, doooger

Agreed that Silver is a class act and the one guy to follow if you follow one guy.

I muck about on predictit but super low stakes. I'm up 10% from my original stake, but mostly on small wins, not big surprises.

I"ve sworn off anything to do with the senate - with each senator wielding so much power, it's an unpredictable body.

Trump approval hits 50%!!!!

Suck on that, you democrat pieces of trash. Americans continue to reject your guilty without evidence stupidity.

Democrats lose again!!!!!

Flagpole says gambling is low class.

Democrats lose again wrote:

http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_updates/prez_track_oct04

Trump approval hits 50%!!!!

Suck on that, you democrat pieces of trash. Americans continue to reject your guilty without evidence stupidity.

Democrats lose again!!!!!

Agree

DOJ indicts 7 additional Russian GRU operatives for cyber crimes... Trump’s friends

To recap this nomination circus. The WH nominated a low caliber candidate not caring if he’d possibly not pass muster. The GOP treated that carelessness, compounded initially by thousands of deliberately hidden documents, as approval to ram the nomination through. As the roaches start to escape from beneath rug and allegations of sexual misconduct arise, the Democrats seize the opportunity to stall the process. The GOP doubles down in their rush to confirm and blame the Democrats, as if they need any of their votes, showing zero sympathy for the alleged victims and no respect for due process. They make a slight vote “accommodation” and Trump approves no better than a half-assed and narrow FBI inquiry into the matter. The public can’t see the results, giving the GOP leverage to push the vote regardless of the findings, and preventing the Democrats from speaking publicly about the details.

The themes of the GOP in the Trump era has been to 1) use his recklessness and ignorance as an excuse for pushing any trash down our throats and 2) assuming that if they are legally and procedurally able to do something it means that not only should they just do it but they also lash out at the other side for conplaining that something isn’t right. Top notch public service from the bankruptcy expert trust fund baby and his bottom-feeding party of lost identity.

If you think the libs are angry now just wait until the FBI report comes back that Mueller didn't find anything either or better yet, when the Ruth Bader Ginsberg seat opens up during Trump's second term.

Mueller never

Clownpole forever

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

If you think ...

Which is something you have never done.

We're about a month away from seeing what the new Congress will look like.

I think Mueller has been holding back, seeing that elected Republicans have been spineless to Trump.

That includes retiring Paul Ryan.

With a Democrat House in January, Mueller will deliver more harming evidence about Trump.

Rigged for Hillary wrote:

If you think the libs are angry now just wait until the FBI report comes back that Mueller didn't find anything either or better yet, when the Ruth Bader Ginsberg seat opens up during Trump's second term.

Mueller never

Clownpole forever

dude.

Mueller has found a huge amount. Mueller has found enough to ruin and stain trump's presidency forever. The most corrupt since Reagan, if not longer.

Do you even know what Mueller is doing? He has indicted or got guilty pleas from many, many people. Including many who work hand in hand with Trump.

If Mueller finds not one thing more, then his investigation has proved trump is a corrupt person. Done.

The pious Pence, soldier of god will cast the tie-breaking vote. He said it himself, it was always god’s mission for him to blindly serve Trump the infidel.

And why does McConnell speak like he’s crying?