Honestly, why is this stupid? You may disagree with it, but "stupid?"
The OP has run a half that suggests 2:54 shape, and has trained thoroughly and properly for the full. Studies have shown that running even splits results in the fastest times.
Why would going out at a pace slightly slower than the pace indicated by a race performance that is the closest equivalent to the goal race, with advice to run evenly, get good rest, carbo load and to think through nutrition and hydration be stupid?
Maybe it's not as conservative as you would like, but it is a thoughtful approach.