Jared Ward proves a smart marathoner is a successful marathoner

Not buying it wrote:

This is perfect example of a double standard on letsrun. If someone the boards doesn't like pulled a sit in the lead pack as it whistles down and kick for the win the last half mile, we'd be hammering them for not doing any work. Yet if someone with zero chance of winning sits back and benefits from the carnage of the people in front of him who actually had the balls to go for the win, he is a "smart runner". They're doing the same thing.

This is solely because Letsrun doesn't like Farah. When Gebrselassie and Bekele used the tactic (and they did it many times), it was perfectly fine. When Lagat uses the tactic, it's "DADDY CAN STILL KICK". But when Farah uses the tactic, it's "FARAH CAN'T RUN FAST".

Ward gets the benefits of:

1) Being an American.

2) Being relatively Blue Collar.

3) Still losing.

If Ward were to do this on a track and win while running slow times over several years of championship races, LR would hate him too, and would spend every waking moment insulting his moustache.

Ward's only realistic chance for a medal was to run smart (which he did perfectly) and to hope to pick off those who faded - he executed beautifully and it ended up good enough for 6th. Rupp is a different level of fitness and if Kipchoge for whatever reason had an off day/cramp, needed to put himself in contention for gold as long as possible and he could still medal by fading not picking off stragglers at the end as Americans have typically done. They each ran the race they needed to.

It's not out of the question that three more ahead of him could have crashed hard or dropped, which would have brought him bronze. So in that way, yes, he was running for a medal, or giving himself the best chance at getting one. He maximized his chance at one, which is all you can ask.

Ward ran a wonderful race. It is always the job of the runner to maximize your potential on that day. I can't think of too many other scenarios where Ward would have done better. He also had different math from many of the top guys who dropped for a few reasons:

1) Financial: They may not hand out any money at the Olympics but I would be surprised if he didn't have a top 10 bonus in his contract (which may have been pretty significant since that was a relatively unlikely result). 6th place also increases his value (i.e appearance fee) he can command at future marathons. I don't think he has another marathon set for this year but it sure will help in negotiations for a spring one. Many of the guys who dropped in front already had great resumes, so their value would not have increased nearly as much as Wards. It also does not hurt in terms of minor races as well..

2) Personal: You can't tell me that he did not derive tremendous satisfaction from that result to go out set a PR (in fairly tough conditions) and race so well in the biggest race of your career, man that has to feel good. To say 6th means "nothing" (earlier post) completely disregards that satisfaction. It is much harder to be disciplined and run a smart race than it is too just run as hard as you can as long as you can and when you blow up say " guess it wasn't my day".

3) Preparation: Tokyo will likely be warm - you never know if he might be in this position again and if so this race should give him confidence to be a little more aggressive in the next games where he may be more fit and perhaps even give him a shot to medal. If he blows up this race, that's a pretty leap if he finds in this spot again in 4 years.

Not buying it wrote:

This is perfect example of a double standard on letsrun. If someone the boards doesn't like pulled a sit in the lead pack as it whistles down and kick for the win the last half mile, we'd be hammering them for not doing any work. Yet if someone with zero chance of winning sits back and benefits from the carnage of the people in front of him who actually had the balls to go for the win, he is a "smart runner". They're doing the same thing.

If people are more talented than you at a game, you have to play a different game to win. If you are the most talented at the game, play the game. This is not a double standard.

Larry David wrote:

To play devil's advocate, one could argue that finish order does not matter in the least, outside of the medallists. Sixth place SOUNDS good, until you realize it does not carry any particular accolade or notoriety. Instead of praising Ward for "smart" racing, one could question why he wasn't up contending for a medal. Why run an Olympic race, if you're going to settle early on for a 6th place finish? The top elites who dropped out (or dropped way back later in the race) likely do not consider a Top 10 or Top 20 finish to be worth anything, unless it's also Top 3.

Yes, the main contenders want a medal or nothing. But I bet you the 130+ guys who finished behind Ward are pretty impressed and would love to finish top 10 in an OG or WC marathon. And it's not like scrubs usually get these spots--Ritz and Hall finished slightly worse in 2008.

tits mcgee wrote:

What's not smart is only training six days a week. I know it's a faith thing, but that's a lot of time left out there.

You should be talking notes not giving advice.

Ward has proven he's a 2:11-2:12 guy, whatever the conditions. 5 marathons so far: 2:16:17, 2:14:00, 2:12:56, 2:13:00, 2:11:30. (Am I missing any?) 61:42 half marathon pr maybe gives him a little more potential, mid 2:09's? I'd say his even split 6th place yesterday is pretty close to his max upside at the moment. How cool that he was able to put it all together when it counted?

65:59 first half yesterday. 65:31 second half. Kipchoge was 62:49 second half, Lelisa was 63:58, Rupp was 64:09. Ward's just not that kind of guy at this point in his career, so to keep running his own race between 25k and 30k when the leaders picked it up was his best strategy to put him in a position to potentially medal if the leaders faltered.

Was that him last night walking in behind Lagat in the Closing Ceremonies?

a scientist wrote:

Not buying it wrote:

This is perfect example of a double standard on letsrun. If someone the boards doesn't like pulled a sit in the lead pack as it whistles down and kick for the win the last half mile, we'd be hammering them for not doing any work. Yet if someone with zero chance of winning sits back and benefits from the carnage of the people in front of him who actually had the balls to go for the win, he is a "smart runner". They're doing the same thing.

If people are more talented than you at a game, you have to play a different game to win. If you are the most talented at the game, play the game. This is not a double standard.

Christ you guys, I get how "running a race strategy that plays to your strengths" works. I'm criticizing the reaction on here, not the strategy....WHOOSH.

kartelite wrote:

Ward's only realistic chance for a medal was to run smart (which he did perfectly) and to hope to pick off those who faded - he executed beautifully and it ended up good enough for 6th. Rupp is a different level of fitness and if Kipchoge for whatever reason had an off day/cramp, needed to put himself in contention for gold as long as possible and he could still medal by fading not picking off stragglers at the end as Americans have typically done. They each ran the race they needed to.

This is correct. Ward's best chance to get a medal was to cover the entire race distance as fast as he could. He determined and executed his best strategy for doing that.

I'd give it a 50/50 shot that Ward is a Bronze medalist in 4 or 5 years.

I don't meant that he is going to get 3rd in 2020 - I mean that I wouldn't be surprised if there are 3 retroactive positive doping tests that boost him to bronze.

Trackbot! Compare asbel kiprop vs Matthew centrowitz

Head-to-head record between asbel kiprop (left) and Matthew centrowitz (right):

Areva Saint-Denis 2011-07-08: 1500 m: 3:33.04 (2) VS 3:34.69 (11)

WC Daegu 2011-09-03: 1500 m: 3:35.69 (1) VS 3:36.08 (3)

Pre Eugene OR 2012-06-02: One Mile: 3:49.40 (1) VS 3:57.44 (8)

OG London 2012-08-07: 1500 m: 3:43.83 (12) VS 3:35.17 (4)

VD Bruxelles 2012-09-07: 1500 m: 3:32.88 (5) VS 3:32.47 (4)

Pre Eugene OR 2013-06-01: One Mile: 3:49.53 (2) VS 3:51.79 (10)

Herc Monaco 2013-07-19: 1500 m: 3:27.72 (1) VS 3:33.58 (8)

WC Moskva 2013-08-18: 1500 m: 3:36.28 (1) VS 3:36.78 (2)

WK Zürich 2013-08-29: 1500 m: 3:33.78 (6) VS 3:36.70 (12)

Pre Eugene OR 2014-05-31: One Mile: 3:50.26 (7) VS 3:50.53 (8)

Herc Monaco 2014-07-18: 1500 m: 3:28.45 (2) VS 3:31.09 (9)

Sainsbury's Birmingham 2014-08-24: One Mile: 3:51.89 (1) VS 3:53.46 (9)

Pre Eugene OR 2015-05-30: One Mile: 3:51.25 (3) VS 3:51.20 (2)

Herc Monaco 2015-07-17: 1500 m: 3:26.69 (1) VS 3:30.40 (10)

Sainsbury's London 2015-07-25: One Mile: 3:54.87 (1) VS 3:55.03 (2)

WC Beijing 2015-08-30: 1500 m: 3:34.40 (1) VS 3:36.13 (8)

OG Río de Janeiro 2016-08-20: 1500 m: 3:50.87 (6) VS 3:50.00 (1)

asbel "MF" kiprop total wins: 13

Matthew "DEVASTATED" centrowitz total wins: 4

TrackBot supports Nicolo Filippazzo:

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I am a bot. Info:

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He actually uses statistics to determine his optimal pace.

http://www.nbcolympics.com/news/running-nerd-us-marathoner-who-also-statistics-professor

Has anybody tracked down his masters thesis on marathon pacing, link?

Pace This wrote:

Has anybody tracked down his masters thesis on marathon pacing, link?

Most BYU MA theses are hosted online by the BYU library, but his isn't there yet. Not too surprising, since he only recently finished his degree. Check back again in 1-6 months.

Seyta wrote:

This is solely because Letsrun doesn't like Farah. When Gebrselassie and Bekele used the tactic (and they did it many times), it was perfectly fine. When Lagat uses the tactic, it's "DADDY CAN STILL KICK". But when Farah uses the tactic, it's "FARAH CAN'T RUN FAST".

Ward gets the benefits of:

1) Being an American.

2) Being relatively Blue Collar.

3) Still losing.

If Ward were to do this on a track and win while running slow times over several years of championship races, LR would hate him too, and would spend every waking moment insulting his moustache.

You forgot that Haile and Keninisa also put down many WRs before and after sit and kick races.

I noticed this on my college track team. Most 10k to marathoner type guys are intelligent while middle distance guys are morons i.e. the type to insist on running 6:30 pace on all their easy days when they can barely break 31mins for an 8k