Naturalrunner wrote:
Where is Jelian? if the ethiopians did not choose him on their team, they are stupid. He is the only hope to beat farah on 27:20 pace race.
He might still be on the starting line, if he's healthy and his training over the last month has gone well I'll expect him to be. Ethiopia is not a democracy and neither is their selection process, last minute changes have happened before.
jjjjj wrote:
Rupp's more affected by heat than the other top guys.
Not sure where you get this - Rupp has always run well in the heat and Salazar has said as much. During the Olympic Trials, Salazar said in an interview that Galen loves the heat because he knows he has trained for it and can handle it better than anyone else, even going so far as to say they wanted it as hot as possible because that was to his advantage.
Fact Checker wrote:
jjjjj wrote:Rupp's more affected by heat than the other top guys.
Not sure where you get this - Rupp has always run well in the heat and Salazar has said as much. During the Olympic Trials, Salazar said in an interview that Galen loves the heat because he knows he has trained for it and can handle it better than anyone else, even going so far as to say they wanted it as hot as possible because that was to his advantage.
Agreed. Last year all three Ethiopians in the 10000 broke down in the champ heat. Only Mo, Rupp and the three Kenyans could handle it.
Partyy wrote:
This is ridiculous. There's no way it'll be 26:30-26:40... It'll be way too hot.
You mean like hot the cool, overcast days for the recent bike races?
Peter Andersson wrote:
Naturalrunner wrote:Where is Jelian? if the ethiopians did not choose him on their team, they are stupid. He is the only hope to beat farah on 27:20 pace race.
He might still be on the starting line, if he's healthy and his training over the last month has gone well I'll expect him to be. Ethiopia is not a democracy and neither is their selection process, last minute changes have happened before.
Anyone think Demelash has a chance? he does have the WL time this year. Not sure what kind of kick he has at the end but I could at least see him medal
also, kinda interesting article i found on him/ethiopia
http://thechronicleherald.ca/sports/1386754-ethiopias-new-hope-for-the-10000-is-feisty-and-outspokenIt could get crazy if the pace isn't insane. Having Farah, Rupp, Kam, Tanui, Karoki and two of the Eithiopians with 2000 to go could be very fun or very old (Farah kicks away the last 200 and wins yet again). We could see Kam do something unbelievable (beat Mo) or we could see the next great Eithiopian distance runner that could rival the records of Haile and Bekele.
Should be a really important race for the future of distance running.
Watch the Ethiopians win out of nowhere when everyone is concentrating on the Farah and the Kenyans.
Mo wins again -- after 4 long years, the Africans still can't beat him,a nd they won't on Saturday.
Hard to say what Rupp will do as nobody but he and AlSal know what his fitness is and what his strategy will be. The only way I see Rupp getting a medal is to use take the race at 5k with a hot mile and try to hold on. He could just pack it in and prep for the marathon, which is what i think he really wants to win.
Galen will medal in the 10k if it is not a 27:30 affair like in London. My prediction is from 2500m out or so, the pace drops to 61-2 a lap. Those who can close within 1:58 over the last 800 off of that will end up on the medal stand. Maybe he lacks that incredible gear that let him best Lagat in 2012 OT but his strength to withstand the long suffering is off the charts now.
Another (former) Oregon Duck wrote:
Galen will medal in the 10k if it is not a 27:30 affair like in London. My prediction is from 2500m out or so, the pace drops to 61-2 a lap. Those who can close within 1:58 over the last 800 off of that will end up on the medal stand. Maybe he lacks that incredible gear that let him best Lagat in 2012 OT but his strength to withstand the long suffering is off the charts now.
Lol you are an obsessed fanboy. Your opinion is clouded by the constant wet dreams you have of Oregon runners
Kunta Kinte wrote:
We all know how the World Half marathon turned out. If any rehearsal or preview of what will happen on Saturday was needed, the World Half marathon provided one. And yes, the weather was cruel too in Cardiff.
The BBC recently did a one hour profile of Mo Farah and his past year of training and preparation for the Olympics. When they covered the World Half Championships it was quite clear that Farah was sick in the buildup to that event and Salazar tried to get him to pull out of the race. I am no Farah fan, but it was clear that he was not 100% recovered in Cardiff and still managed to come 3rd running 59:59. This was not mentioned in the Letsrun preview either. I don't think that you can count this as any indicator of what will happen in the 10,000 this coming weekend - unless Farah is sick again.
iMobot wrote:
Kunta Kinte wrote:We all know how the World Half marathon turned out. If any rehearsal or preview of what will happen on Saturday was needed, the World Half marathon provided one. And yes, the weather was cruel too in Cardiff.
The BBC recently did a one hour profile of Mo Farah and his past year of training and preparation for the Olympics. When they covered the World Half Championships it was quite clear that Farah was sick in the buildup to that event and Salazar tried to get him to pull out of the race. I am no Farah fan, but it was clear that he was not 100% recovered in Cardiff and still managed to come 3rd running 59:59. This was not mentioned in the Letsrun preview either. I don't think that you can count this as any indicator of what will happen in the 10,000 this coming weekend - unless Farah is sick again.
This shouldn't discount the incredible performance though of Kamworor who lost 10 seconds on the field, bloodied his knees, and sprinted to the front pack, and then went on to run 59 low in horrible conditions. The man is strong.
Farah also wasn't training specifically for a Half, he was still doing what he would do for track training, just a little bit more strength. He was still hammering his normal speed-fest workouts.
i predict that wrote:
Kenyans take it out in 13:15 with Mo and Galen 50m adrift. As race unfolds and his fellow pacemakers tire, Geoffrey is left on his own with 8 to go. Mo and Galen hunt him down and pass in last 600. Mo pulls away on the last lap to win in 26:45 with even splits. Galen finishes 5 seconds behind for a repeat 1-2 from London. Geoffrey hangs on for bronze in just outside 27.
This seems to me like a pretty realistic result! Good thinking.
Unless the weather's really dreadful and he melts more than some of the others, I can't see Farah not winning. He's shown he's fit in 2016. I've worried for several years why a couple of nations with multiples people in the same race (10,000 or 5000) with faster PRs than him can't figure out a way to beat him,. but I now accept that they can't. No matter what kind of pace and tactics there are in this 10,000, Farah will win.
Salami wrote:
In terms how you break down Rupp's chances, I have to disagree. Rupp has no kick in him, I 100% agree with that. However his endurance and aerobic capacity will be as good as anyone, even maybe better because of the marathon.
In 2015, Kamworwor promised a fast pace, which he did... Sort of 27 flat is a much more respectable time than the 27:20-27:30's that were consistently winning these championship races before. However it still is not anything mind boggling. I think the Kenyans are going to learn from that. If you recall the 1st half of the 10k in 2015 was not that fast (13:40) but they came back in 13:20ish. I'd imagine they will take it hard from the gun. I don't think a winning time of 26:40 is out of the question. And if the Kenyans throws down that sort of pace, I think Kamworwor will be the only Kenyan to survive along with Mo and Galen. So if it turns out be more of a race as to who can hang on the longest, I like his chances.
I agree with the 2nd poster. Rupp wants this race to be fast as hell. He looked like an aerobic machine in Eugene. I don't see how het gets dropped. i say that but then intellectually I can't figureout how someone training for the marathon would be in 26:40 shape. No one else in the world is good at both so why would Rupp do it.
Of course, I can't intellectually understand how someone who struggled to break 4:00 for years is now a 3:50 miler.
But I think his best bet is if it's a war of attrition. I dont think he'll be kicking for a medal. If he just leeches off the kenyans doing all of the work and one of them fades, he could sna bronze.
I'm not sure where all this, "It's going to be way too hot!!" talk is coming from. The forecast is showing the temperature should be 69 at the start of the race. I think that's pretty ideal 10k conditions.
Just my opinion Kamworo will win, the Kenyans want the gold, Kam is their best guy, the other two will make it hard race 26:40s, and Kam will outlast mo; I also think Kam will have a better kick this year, so faster pace better kick and slightly weaker mo and less kick he slightly edges mo 26:47 to 26:49.
Beavus wrote:
I'm not sure where all this, "It's going to be way too hot!!" talk is coming from. The forecast is showing the temperature should be 69 at the start of the race. I think that's pretty ideal 10k conditions.
Humidity matters.
Samuel DeChamplain wrote:
Just my opinion Kamworo will win, the Kenyans want the gold, Kam is their best guy, the other two will make it hard race 26:40s, and Kam will outlast mo; I also think Kam will have a better kick this year, so faster pace better kick and slightly weaker mo and less kick he slightly edges mo 26:47 to 26:49.
Mo says he thinks pace will be (around and slight slower than?) 27:00.