2016 Men's 10,000 Preview: Will Mo Farah win again? Does Galen Rupp have a shot at a medal?

Zlatan wrote:

I have bet on a Rupp double. You're all welcome on my yacht afterwards.

Extremely well done!

coach d wrote:

You have the Women's 100m final on Saturday and the Men's 100m and 400m final on Sunday. Nobody cares about that jogging crap.

If they had the 100m on the first 2 days of the Olympics, most sports fans wouldn't bother to watch the rest of it.

Why do you routinely come to a website dedicated to distance running to post about how much you dislike distance running?

Ugandan and 2014 Iaaf world junior champion over 10000m, Joshua Kiprui Cheptegei is the man to watch. Surprised he is not even mentioned in the preview. Essentially a 10Ker runner but has improved his 5K time this year to 13:00 and won Carlsbad 5K earlier in the year.

Sourced wrote:

IF (and this if is more of a hope) Tanui/Karoki/Kam push the pace to 26:30, I think Rupp has a fantastic chance at a medal, if not favored for it.

I think only Kam, Mo and Rupp can run that fast.

They can't outkick Farah at ~27:00 (as evidenced by worlds last year), so why wouldn't they try to go ~26:40 and see?

It's much easier said than done, but this is a possibility. With Kam's half-marathon domination he has to know his only chance of winning is going hard until Farah breaks. And I agree that Kam, Farah, and Rupp are the fastest in a time trial. Karoki could be interesting, and obviously Kam runs the risk of burning out and going home with nothing instead of silver, but this 10,000 definitely has some intrigue. I assume it plays out a la Tadese/Bekele duels.

Sourced wrote:

Mo and Salazar have said that Rupp would end up with a better 10k pb and could threaten the WR.

IF (and this if is more of a hope) Tanui/Karoki/Kam push the pace to 26:30, I think Rupp has a fantastic chance at a medal, if not favored for it.

I think only Kam, Mo and Rupp can run that fast.

They can't outkick Farah at ~27:00 (as evidenced by worlds last year), so why wouldn't they try to go ~26:40 and see?

lol When did they say Rupp was ready to break the world record? That's such nonsense. He doesn't even have a 10K scheduled for after Rio.

Sourced wrote:

I posted this in another thread that went unnoticed-

who wins and medals in each?

1. Kenyans don't follow through on their promises for a fast race AGAIN, and it goes slower than 27:30. Does Rupp medal?

No, and Mo wins

Sourced wrote:

2. Pace is good at first, lags, then picks up. Winner is about 27:00

Farah wins.

Sourced wrote:

3. Karoki and Tanui get the pace going, and Kamworor finally follows through on the Kenyan promises, pushing middle section of the race through to the end. Pace is 26:30-26:40. Who wins?

That is the one unknown - so logically what the Kenyans do. Can Kam push it off a 1st half in 13:20? Would Mo hang on, or give him 40-50m and back himself to bring it home hard in the last 3-4 laps?

Sourced wrote:

4. If they actually go through in 13:10-13:20, is there any chance of WR?

.

No - too hot in Rio.

Galen probably could not rabbit the first half of a 10000m world record as he would have to run maybe 13:08 and I am not sure he could do that if he had to lead.

Kamworor, Tanui and Karoki if you read this take heed! If you want to beat Mo Farah in sunny Brazil you must shave your heads as shiny bald as his. It keeps your head cooler because the sweat evaporates directly off your skin instead of soaking into your hair first. Ask Bernard Kipchirchir.

And Galen if you end up covered with red dots like Michael Phelps these boards will never hear the end of it. Don't let Al Sal do it. Please dispense with the silly tape too.

This is ridiculous. There's no way it'll be 26:30-26:40... It'll be way too hot.

The race on Saturday will not be like any we have seen before safe maybe 2003. For Kamworor and Bedan Karoki this is their last ditch effort in dethroning Mo Farah on the track before they head to the "roads".

Kamworor has mentioned severally that he wants to fully shift his focus to road running, particularly the marathon, after Rio, and so this is going to be very special for him. After last year's defeat by Mo Farah, Kamworor made it personal and set only two goals for 2016: World Half marathon defense and Olympics 10000m title campaign. The World Half marathon defense was just for his build up towards the Olympic 10000m later in the year and had no idea Mo Farah would be lining up against him in Cardiff. We all know how the World Half marathon turned out. If any rehearsal or preview of what will happen on Saturday was needed, the World Half marathon provided one. And yes, the weather was cruel too in Cardiff.

Karoki was to make his marathon debut this year in London. But he sacrificed the chance and the dollars in order to team up with Kamworor and try one last time to defeat Mo Farah at the Olympics 10K. Karoki has accepted his role as a "king-maker" to Kamworor and demonstrated this very well during the World Half marathon championship where he set a blistering pace. Expect him together with Paul Tanui to set a blistering pace all the way to the end and set up Kamworor for Victory. Both Karoki and Tanui have great respect for Kamworor and believe he will do the job on Saturday.

That said, the racing will start around 3K mark. Just like for the women event, it is time for a change of the guard. My bold prediction: 1. Kamworor 2.Tanui 3. Cheptegei 4. Galen Rupp 5. Mo Farah

Oh, winning time will be 26:37! 2nd and third will also deep under 27 minutes(26:49 and 26:54).

Rupp's more affected by heat than the other top guys. He had a very good race in Beijing considering that. If conditions are good, he should be in contention with a lap to go and I would assume that he won't be able to stick with the others in the kick, because he hasn't had that incredible kick outside of three races in 2012, the Trials 5000 and 10000 (especially the 5000, where he outkicked Lagat with maybe 52.5), and the Olympic 10000m, where he had as much left as anyone in the race.

My prediction without looking at the rest of the field would be:

1. Farah

2. Kamworor

3. Other Kenyan (is it Tanui and Karoki again? Then Tanui).

Rupp fourth or fifth.

I don't recall there being any Ethiopians with a shot at the win in a fast 10 if Jeilan is absent. It is rare that a really good 5000m guy moves up and dominates, if that is what they are trying.

Listen to this man. This man has knowledge bitches.

Farah wins! Unless he has a very bad day I can't see anyone beating him. Even in a very fast race there is no reason to think that his last 200 or 400 is going to be slower than that of anyone else in the field.

Rupp could win a medal but whatever the race I can see at least a couple of guys being quicker over the last 150 or so.

5K much tougher for Farah but I still think he will double again. He is helped by not having heats of the 10K and only one round prior to the final of the 5K.

And the WINNER IS...? wrote:

https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/uganda/joshua-kiprui-cheptegei-292450

Ugandan and 2014 Iaaf world junior champion over 10000m, Joshua Kiprui Cheptegei is the man to watch. Surprised he is not even mentioned in the preview. Essentially a 10Ker runner but has improved his 5K time this year to 13:00 and won Carlsbad 5K earlier in the year.

Yes, the Ugandians are ready to break out as a forth superpower beside Kenya, Etiopia and Nike - unless Eritrea beats them to it first, that gold medal in the marathon last year (their first ever) must have been a huge confident lift for the entire team going into training for this year, they've often had talanted guys (Tsegay) but now they've seen firsthand they can actually take it all the way when it matters.

It always used to be that the 10K final was on Sunday and then the 5K final next Saturday.

This Olympics as well last WC there are 7 days in between the two finals. Was it specifically set up (by Coe?) for Mo so that he has more time to recover and bigger chances to double?

Where is Jelian? if the ethiopians did not choose him on their team, they are stupid. He is the only hope to beat farah on 27:20 pace race.

mako wrote:

It always used to be that the 10K final was on Sunday and then the 5K final next Saturday.

This Olympics as well last WC there are 7 days in between the two finals. Was it specifically set up (by Coe?) for Mo so that he has more time to recover and bigger chances to double?

Maybe. Wouldn't be the first time. The 200-400 shcedule was changed to help Michael Johnson.

Kenyans take it out in 13:15 with Mo and Galen 50m adrift. As race unfolds and his fellow pacemakers tire, Geoffrey is left on his own with 8 to go. Mo and Galen hunt him down and pass in last 600. Mo pulls away on the last lap to win in 26:45 with even splits. Galen finishes 5 seconds behind for a repeat 1-2 from London. Geoffrey hangs on for bronze in just outside 27.