Why in Hell is Jenkins in the 10k?

OklahomaGuy wrote:

Mead has that 13:01, but he'll also probably be doubling up.

Mead's PR is 13:02, and has run 13:04 this year. Not sure where you got 13:01.

True and Mead are not necessarily locks in the 10k.

True only ran 13:12 at Pre (which is still a great time but no 13:02). Mead is less consistent at USA's and in tactical races. After running 13:02 in 2014, Mead lost to both Lagat and Bumbalough at USA's in the 5k. He was third last year in the 10k.

Jenkins has shown to be a very savvy tactical racer and he trains with Rupp and Centro who are both great tactical racers. If the 10k is slow it's in Jenkins (and maybe Lagat's favor).

Also Jenkins is probably doubling just to give himself more chances to make the team. He's probably confident in his ability to recover after a tactical 10k.

Jenkins is probably training with Rupp, who's preparing for the 10k and marathon.

Thus Jenkins is likely well prepared for the 10k, maybe even better than the 5.

Word is that Estrada is going to make the 10K an honest race and push hard in the early going. He feels his best chance is to burn off the kickers or establish a gap ahead of the pack if no one goes with him.

I'm sure that Rupp will stay close enough to eventually win. He's not going to be content with just top 3 since he was a streak to maintain. Will be interesting to see how that plays out. Rupp can afford to give Estrada a fairly long leash in the first 5 miles so I don't see him even leading the chase pack until he is ready to make a move.

Will anyone go with Estrada? That is the big question.

Shadrack Kipchirchir. Ran 27:58 at Stanford Invite just going for the standard. Winning the top section of the 5000m at Payton Jordan with a :55 close on a 13:18 was very impressive.

Been quiet since then but, if he toes the line in the form he showed at Payton Jordan, I like his chances

thanks for all the insightful replies.

they all have merit.

Especially the one saying that only Jenkins and Salazar know what they are best prepared for.

I'd just restate, by going for both, especially when your best discipline is second, you risk qualifying in neither.

I hope i'm wrong, as i think Jenkins is really the next consistent sub 13 guy.

Final thought, Jenkins is 24, at what age did Salazar start having Rupp double at National Champs?

You all forget he is training with Farah and Rupp. I'm sure Salazar knows if he is capable of qualifying for the 10k.

Remember Galen qualified back in 2008 off of similar credentials. I don't know who the odd man out will be, but I would give Jenkins a 50% shot to make the 10k

Edgar Summersby wrote:

Word is that Estrada is going to make the 10K an honest race and push hard in the early going. He feels his best chance is to burn off the kickers or establish a gap ahead of the pack if no one goes with him.

I'm sure that Rupp will stay close enough to eventually win. He's not going to be content with just top 3 since he was a streak to maintain. Will be interesting to see how that plays out. Rupp can afford to give Estrada a fairly long leash in the first 5 miles so I don't see him even leading the chase pack until he is ready to make a move.

Will anyone go with Estrada? That is the big question.

1. Provide a source on the supposed Estrada plan or quit trolling.

2. What makes yo think Rupp cares about "he has a streak to maintain"? If you're on the team injury free then you can just be happy with out kicking everyone in the chase pack. Not a big deal.

3. See #1

Lagat will beat Ben TrueMaybe not in the top 3, but Lagat is so effing good

The old traditions wrote:

Ben True

Shadrack Kipchirchir, korir, chelanga, Lagat, Jenkins, Mead, (estrada?!)How can you pick Ben True over any of those guys based on what everyone has run this season?everyone seems to have this idea that Ben True is an international stud, but he's not. he's a very good, solid runner with a couple awesome performances.

jjjjjj wrote:

very true. So, one spot available after Rupp and True.

looking for sensible answers wrote:

Shadrack Kipchirchir, korir, chelanga, Lagat, Jenkins, Mead, (estrada?!)

How can you pick Ben True over any of those guys based on what everyone has run this season?

everyone seems to have this idea that Ben True is an international stud, but he's not. he's a very good, solid runner with a couple awesome performances.

jjjjjj wrote:

very true. So, one spot available after Rupp and True.

He made both teams last year, and ran a 3:36 1,500m in which he nearly beat Nick Willis. 13:02 makes you an international stud, and he will easily make the 10k team this year.

easily? that's a rather silly statement to make, unless you know him personally and know he is in much better shape than he has ever been before. I don't even think Rupp will win 'easily'you are not thinking clearly. he certainly has the ability to make it, I just do not think he will.i'll check back on this thread after the race

Obvious Fact wrote:

looking for sensible answers wrote:

Shadrack Kipchirchir, korir, chelanga, Lagat, Jenkins, Mead, (estrada?!)

How can you pick Ben True over any of those guys based on what everyone has run this season?

everyone seems to have this idea that Ben True is an international stud, but he's not. he's a very good, solid runner with a couple awesome performances.

He made both teams last year, and ran a 3:36 1,500m in which he nearly beat Nick Willis. 13:02 makes you an international stud, and he will easily make the 10k team this year.

For what it's worth, probably not much, I saw Jenkins running with Centro a couple of days ago here at Park City. Looks like they were just getting in an easy run. Interesting I also saw a big group of Bowerman club including Jaeger running at the same time on the same trails but apart from each other. Most of them are probably heading back to Eugene now.

looking for sensible answers wrote:

Shadrack Kipchirchir, korir, chelanga, Lagat, Jenkins, Mead, (estrada?!)

How can you pick Ben True over any of those guys based on what everyone has run this season?

everyone seems to have this idea that Ben True is an international stud, but he's not. he's a very good, solid runner with a couple awesome performances.

How could you NOT pick Ben True? The dude ran 13:12 at Pre as a rust-buster with nearly no speedwork and a spotty winter of training. Then he comes and blasts a 3:36.0! If everybody agrees that the trials will be tactical and it comes down to the last ~3k, or even ~1mi, I'll take True over Jenkins/Kipchirchir/Chalenga/Lagat/etc. I think he could probably beat Rupp if he runs with the proper confidence.

based on what? wrote:

Lagat will beat Ben True

Maybe not in the top 3, but Lagat is so effing good

The old traditions wrote:

Ben True

Be true to Ben True, just like you would to your girl .....

This will be a relatively fast 10,000. Rupp will keep it honest the last 1600 since he won't have his usual wheels with the marathon training. Just like last year, True and Mead will be the ones to hang on the longest. Jenkins is in the race because he will be racing for 4th...even though he has a better shot at top 3 in the 5000, True will only race the 5000 at Rio (and True will win the 5000 at Trials) so a 4th is very high probability Olympic slot. Kipchirchir will make it tough on Jenkins until final lap when Jenkins will blow him away. Chelenga could surprise for a top 6 but he hasn't been himself for years. Finally, Old Man Lagat will fade at this distance unless he's back on his "vitamins", and even then 5th is the best he will do. Estrada who?

Rupp, True, Mead, Jenkins.

Why isn't Levins included in this discussion?

Prepare for the rapture when Jenkins unleashes a doctrine of demons on the competion over the final 400m.

So glad you brought Levins up - I've been wondering about him as well, especially after running into him and Dr. Michael Allison after group massage therapy last Wednesday.

Derek Prince wrote:

Why isn't Levins included in this discussion?

Prepare for the rapture when Jenkins unleashes a doctrine of demons on the competion over the final 400m.