I appreciate that the Kenyans are away training for most of June, but all the dates you refer to are for this forthcoming season. Why are you using races that haven't happened yet to back up your comments?
Last year we had your guy, Kiplagat, running a 3:30.12 in Saint Denis, with 10 more lower than 3:33.
There was a 1500 in Stockholm last year, which was on the 30.7, and Souleiman won in 3:33.
There were also 1500 races in Zurich and Brussels that any of the elites could have run in, and its not as if either of those tracks have never had fast middle distance runs on them.
In 2014 there was a 3:30 from Kiplagat in Rome in early June, a mile in Oslo, another place with a history of fast times, and 3:31's in Lausanne, Brussels and Rieti. There was another 3:30 in Rieti in 2013 and a 3:29 by a Kenyan in Hengelo in May 2012.
So that's 10 different tracks that have thrown up reasonably fast 1500s in the past 4 seasons. And any of those track's meet directors would be bending over backwards to accommodate any of the elites who want to go for a record. Guys like Willis, Centrowitz, etc, would surely prefer and go and run a 3:30 and win in Lausanne or Hengelo than run the same time in coming 7th or 8th in Monaco, which must do wonders for their confidence and give them a psychological advantage over a Kenyan who is 30m further up the track. The fact that these 3:30 runners don't even bother to set a pb and try running a 3:28, makes me think that they all know they aren't capable of it.
I don't think Kiplagat or Kiprop have even broken 3:29 on any track other than Monaco! And the only other track in which they've marginally broken 3:30 is Doha in early May. Which is such a great time of year to be running near peak times.
In the last 9 seasons (since the end of 2006) , no one has broken 3:29.0 on any track apart from Monaco.
There have been only 7 performances between 3:29.0 and 3:30.0 in that same length of time not set on the Monaco track. And 4 of those were in Doha in May! The only 2 non Doha, non Monaco sub 3:30's run in the last 9 years were: Choge in Berlin~ 3:29.47, 2009, Chepseba in Hengelo ~ 3:29.90, 2012.
So, since 2006, there have been:
20 sub 3:30's run in Monaco
4 in Doha
2 in all the other tracks of the world.
You say that 3:30 is 'nothing' for the Kenyan elites. I would beg to differ.
Do you not think it even marginally strange that in the past 9 seasons only 2 Kenyans have marginally broken 3:30 on the tracks of Europe other than Monaco? There are probably a dozen top meets (and they don't have to be Diamond League events) - Hengelo, Oslo, Stockholm, Paris, Rome, Lausanne, Zurich, Brussels, Rieti, London, etc - where it wouldn't be difficult for a Kiprop or Kiplagat or Souleiman or Iguider, to ask for someone to pace them through splits of 55, 1:51, 2:33. With such depth in middle distance running these days, the only thing stopping them is the desire to go out and do it.
Even if we take just 10 meets a year, that's 90 possible occasions in the past 9 years for an elite to run sub 3:30. Apart from Monaco and Doha, this has been achieved just twice.
That seems at the least very strange and unusual.