Should Asbel Kiprop be worry about Centro?

This is like asking if Cheserek should be worried about the guy who won d3 nats in XC. Indoor worlds is like the baby olympics. A lot of the real greats weren't there.

Also:

https://youtu.be/BpcP3CAfGUI

That race answers this question

themanontherun wrote:

In a time trial, no. Asbel Kiprop will be unbeatable in a sub 3:30 race, almost certainly. A 3:30-3:33 race he would be beatable, and in a 3:34+ race Centro would have a great shot.

He owuld have a better shot but Kiprop will still feel fresher than Centro at a slower pace and and have superior 800m speed to bring in. If Kiprop dawdles at the back like he sometimes does that gives Centro more of a chance

jjjjjj wrote:

How can you say that sub 3:30 is an impossible dream for a guy who has run 3:30.4 and is in the prime of his career?

Because it was on a dirty track and he was in 10th place, the majority of places 1-9 also much faster there than anywhere else. On real tracks he is only a whisker under 3:32, and that was 4 years ago. His fastest since then on a legit track is 3:32.70, far far away from 3:29.

There is no point saying he could go faster because he peaks for these rare time trials before preparing to sit and kick later in the season. His prime was 4 years ago. You cannot compare him even to a mid-pack world elite like Nixon Chepseba, who has ran sub 3:30 at Hengelo and sub 3:32 at six tracks other than Monaco. Chepseba is legit, but is not even close to the best.

I know American fans want something to be proud of, but don't embarrass serious fans by fawning all over olympians like ignorant casuals do. They are not what it's about, the fast guys are. The Kipketers, not the Schumanns. No competitive Diamond League entrants means the US is out of the game completely, and as long as the top Americans try merely to snag a medal here or there as spoilers, that will never change.

kiprop in 325 shape fears no man.

centro can close in 51 and A game figures in at 328.

so it will take an A centro to beat a B kirop at the wire.

anything can and does happen.

Centro sucks. He is supposedly our fastest 1500/mile man, but he can't even get close to Mo who doesn't even specialize in middle distance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFiLTN6Sc_k

Bad Wigins,

Your posts above on this thread are some of the best I've seen you write.

Running with the idea that Centro is not truly a 3:30 man, let's look at Kiprop:

~ His 4 fastest times were run on the recent Monaco track (3:26.69 in 2015, 3:27.72 in 2013, 3:28.45 in 2014, and 3:28.88 in 2012).

~ His fastest non-Monaco time is 3:29.18 (Doha, May, 2014). This is his 5th-fastest time overall.

~ His 6th-fastest time was also in Doha (3:29.78 in 2012).

~ His 7th-fastest time is 3:30.46, run in Rieti in 2011.

Given that info., what kind of a guy do you believe Kiprop is, and why? A 3:30 guy? A 3:29 guy? A 3:26 guy?

Your argument is so persuasive, I believe you can legitimately take away his 3rd, 4th, 2nd and 1st place at international championships. That's 3 medals, just taken away and. 4th place because your rationale is so strong! You must be a champion in debate class.

Let's examine some variables that may make Centro better than last year and also a sub 3:30 guy and a gold medal threat for Rio:

1. He beat 3:29 1500m man Nick Willis twice.

2. He won Gold @ Indoor Champs.

3. His 3k PR has improved.

4. His dad has taken over (supposedly?) his coaching. His dad wasn't a slouch himself as a Pro and has coached total bums to NCAA stardom so he knows how to motivate/coach. And probably he knows his son better than most people - perhaps a Peter Coe/Seb Coe type of relationship.

He has only gotten better than last year.

So what has Asbel done? he ran 1:47 800m, hand timed, on a non-certified dirt track with very little drug testing going on over there (sorry - drugs have to be mentioned in this thread).

Knock Symmonds wrote:

Naturalrunner wrote:

After the trilling finish in the indoor world championship, Should kiprop be worry about Centro? I think Centro is in amazing shape and he is very good in positioning himself for win.

No more than Rudisha should be worried about Nick "The Nozzle" Symmonds.

I've never laughed at a LetsRun post like that one. "The Nozzle" is the best nickname I have ever heard. Bravo, sir.

Centro strong boy

Who care's about fast? Centro is the tactics master of the 1500.

SCIENCE! wrote:

I've never laughed at a LetsRun post like that one. "The Nozzle" is the best nickname I have ever heard. Bravo, sir.

I, too, chuckled. I hope to high heavens it's the reference I'm thinking of.

Bad Wigins wrote:

themanontherun wrote:

If the race goes last year or slower pace to win, Centro is among a number of guys who have the ability to win such a race (though Kiprop would still be the favorite).

Who the F cares who wins if that happens?

That's why there are NO good American 1500 runners, that's right ZERO. Sub 3:30 is an impossible dream for all of them because their only strategy is chasing medals in slow championships.

Meanwhile the real 1500 runners are on the Diamond League circuit year after year chasing WORLD RECORDS. US runners are minor league, no matter how many medals they get. They can't even get into most DL events.

When Centro races DL he is always near DFL. He is a dog eating scraps that fall off the elite miler's table.

Well said!

notrump wrote:

Who care's about fast? Centro is the tactics master of the 1500.

The best "tactics" Cento can deploy might get him 3rd-5th in a race Kiprop is winning 20 meters ahead of him.

Centro v Kiprop is like Blankenship v Centro. Different levels.

Bad Wigins wrote:Because it was on a dirty track and he was in 10th place, the majority of places 1-9 also much faster there than anywhere else. On real tracks he is only a whisker under 3:32, and that was 4 years ago. His fastest since then on a legit track is 3:32.70, far far away from 3:29

utter nonsense

explain to world why this "dirty track" has utter crap 400 track record post-'00 of 44.30 by lashawn who also ran 43.9+ twice elsewhere that year ???

how can a track be so rubbish for 400 but "dirty" for 1500 ???

i suggest you do some proper research & not just rely on stats

that rieti run was Asbel's 1st serious tt as he was embarrassed having such a crap pb at the time

it was appalling race :

it went out waaaay too fast at 1'49.61 which is 3'25.5 pace !!!

he then was solo last 700 !!!

smooth pacing/drafting to bell he wouda run

~ 3'28+

ventolin^3 wrote:

bla bla bla

smooth pacing/drafting to bell he wouda run

~ 3'28+

Ahhh my daily dose of morning wouda :)

All this speculation on this thread and others about who is doing what now and what it means later in the summer is stupid. They are going to approach their peak(s) differently, what they do in June and July will give a better indication.

As to the original question, I'd say the Kiprop SHOULDN'T be worried about Centro. The only way Centro has a "chance" is that the US gets another American into the final, but as a sacrifice. Since Kiprop often hangs back, position the lamb behind Kiprop and pants him at ~1000 meters, the field will gap him, the lamb will dfl or dnf and maybe Kiprop doesn't get things corrected in time, even with a :47 last lap. This might be a strategy against Farah as well.