Even if Paula doped, how is her WR so much faster than the next best?

rekrunner wrote:

Yet it hasn't helped other women come close to Paula -- I think this thread is about "why not?"

The others didn't have inside IAAF backing and coverups to protect them.

The IAAF has approved Semenya to run in women's events, and he wasn't even on the inside like Radcliffe, who's had the backing of Coe and other IAAF insiders. Other top women haven't had those connections, and if anything, took drugs that didn't help them but were just in vogue at the time.

The best distance runners some 12 - 15 years ago ran on the track. Cases in point Tergat + Haile, who both started dominating the marathon once they went there (WRs over 10k in the mid/late 20s, in the marathon early/mid 30s). Or compare the eight 10k world records to the two marathon world records during the 90s. Now the best seem to skip the track for the most part. I'd say Shobukhova wasn't as talented - drugs are not wonders. If I were to guess numbers for EPO + the marathon, I'd say 1 - 3 minutes for hard-core, and maybe half as much or less for microdosing. And for the millionth time: Paula wasn't that dehydrated after running for 67 minutes in 21 - 23 C, when she sped up towards to end, and then got tested some 60 - 90 minutes later (depending on the source; less than 2 hours according to IAAF) after re-hydrating. As for the 110+ off-scores: remember that off-scores in the 80s are normal. This is just an artificially high border, e.g. like the 4 : 1 testosterone to epitestosterone ratio or the 50% hematocrit for cyclists.

rekrunner wrote:

How to explain then that the men did much better in the marathon going from hardcore EPO to micro-dosing?

I suspect Junxia (1993) got more benefit from male hormones than EPO.

And we know Shobukhova was not microdosing (Off score in the 150's compared to Paula's dehydrated max of 110-115). Likewise Paula doesn't seem to have been hardcore EPO dosing from these marginal scores.

The problem with not waiting two hours, as all sources seem to agree, is that we don't know. Maybe speeding up at the end caused more heat buildup, causing more dehydration, that the others didn't have, because they ran slower.

You said Paula was hardcore EPO using. Yet her marginally suspicious scores occurred 6 months after her 2:15. Scores like 110-115 don't seem harcore when we see Shobukhova's scores around 135-155.

Let's see if the WADA Independent Commission part two "wow" report supports any IAAF coverup hypothesis concerning Paula.Once Semenya was allowed to compete, she has struggled to match her previous success. Ross Tucker claims that this is in line with some IAAF negotiated hormone therapy to make her less masculine in order to compete.

Dirty Doper wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

Yet it hasn't helped other women come close to Paula -- I think this thread is about "why not?"

The others didn't have inside IAAF backing and coverups to protect them.

The IAAF has approved Semenya to run in women's events, and he wasn't even on the inside like Radcliffe, who's had the backing of Coe and other IAAF insiders. Other top women haven't had those connections, and if anything, took drugs that didn't help them but were just in vogue at the time.

Different strategies (and we don't really know what Shobukhova did, or Paula for that matter). See for example Riis, Mr. 60%, whereas Ullrich allegedly only went up to 48%. May be a question of the type which level is best. We also don't know whether there are any 2003 London values for Paula. But yes, at this point, EPO is just a reasonable - not proven - assumption that helps rationalizing Paula's extreme achievements and repeated 99.9/99.99 scores. Haven't we been there before? Same is true for Junxia's PEDs, for which there is even less evidence (similar: world record for the ages, and questionable environment, but no suspicious test results as far as we know).

rekrunner wrote:

You said Paula was hardcore EPO using. Yet her marginally suspicious scores occurred 6 months after her 2:15. Scores like 110-115 don't seem harcore when we see Shobukhova's scores around 135-155.

I'm struggling with your terminology and what you meant by hardcore usage, as something last done in 2003 by Paula making the difference. Surely, if anything, Paula's low scores suggest micro-dosing more than hardcore EPO usage. (And others made the case that an autologuous blood transfusion was more likely than EPO).

Mizuki Noguchi = clean world record holder.

This isn't even up for discussion.

With hardcore, I meant without fear of getting caught, not that she used an extreme amount. We've learnt from the various cycling reports that some cyclists went for much thicker blood (more hemoglobin/EPO), others just kept the hematocrit values around or even below 50%. I don't think runners have openly talked about EPO usages yet - that would be quite interesting. Except for Eddy, who also said he stayed under 50%. If you look in the other thread, you see rjm demonstrating that Paula apparently had those 50ish values too, at least in 2003. And yeah, Paula's performance dropped much faster after 2003 than the normal aging would suggest. The opposite, on the other hand, speaks for Lagat and Haile and Bekele, unless aduck is right with the CERA usage.

rekrunner wrote:

I'm struggling with your terminology and what you meant by hardcore usage, as something last done in 2003 by Paula making the difference. Surely, if anything, Paula's low scores suggest micro-dosing more than hardcore EPO usage. (And others made the case that an autologuous blood transfusion was more likely than EPO).

Phantasy Star wrote:

Mizuki Noguchi = clean world record holder.

This isn't even up for discussion.

Haven’t you ever wondered how the Japanese women ran all those fast times from around 1998 to 2007, including three under 2:20.

But since 2008 the fastest times have been:

2:22:48 Sairi Maeda JPN 07.11.91 3 Nagoya 08.03.2015

2:23:23 Risa Shigetomo JPN 29.08.87 1 Osaka 29.01.2012

2:23:34 Ryoko Kizaki JPN 21.06.85 1 Nagoya 10.03.2013

2:23:56 Yoshimi Ozaki JPN 11.07.81 1 Yokohama 20.02.2011

Just four under 2:24. Did the Japanese forget how to train?

Those Japanese times should have been for this decade as there was another 2:23 in 2008.

rekrunner wrote:

You said Paula was hardcore EPO using. Yet her marginally suspicious scores occurred 6 months after her 2:15. Scores like 110-115 don't seem harcore when we see Shobukhova's scores around 135-155.

This is a subtle yet completely dishonest retelling.

Besides that the elegance of the bio-passport is that the blood records all the distortions of oxygen related doping takes that long to 'wash out' without more doping.

By your logic, if I tilt my head and squint my eyes just right, she might be clean. She's not clean.

Look, Paula is a doper. There is less than zero doubt about that. The only question is will she ever go to prison for cheating?

Before the drug era, the best distance runners were the Americans:

Ryan, Liquori, Shorter, Wottle were never beaten by a drug-free Kenyan.

casual obsever wrote:

Same is true for Junxia

There is no comparison.

Junxia was a superstar from the very beginning, even in her own group in China. She did more training than anyone else in her group, as well as her form, rhythm & technique being flawless. She ran 3:51 for the 1500 meters, was always clean on drug tests, there were no suspicious readings, and she ran clean, not making accusations of others to try and gain some advantage.

And to bring it back around to the "subject" of this thread, doping was assumed so we don't need to "go there" here -- hardcore EPO/blood-doping before, and softcore EPO micro-dosing/blood-doping after.We should address things like:- how can EPO be a reasonable assumption that rationalizes the extreme achievement when there is no precedent before, and no confirmation since, in the women's marathon? If EPO is so effective, so widely available, and so undetectable, it shouldn't lead to one extreme outlier, but (like the pattern in cycling) its effect should be repeatable, and observed across the board.Seems to me the answer is a set of factors unique to Paula that exclude all competitors before or since. I don't imagine EPO/blood-doping in that set.

casual obsever wrote:

...

But yes, at this point, EPO is just a reasonable - not proven - assumption that helps rationalizing Paula's extreme achievements and repeated 99.9/99.99 scores. Haven't we been there before?

...

No it's not. I assumed "hardcore" meant extreme amounts -- and "casual observer" clarified that he only talked about "fear of getting caught", and not quantifying the amounts. I wouldn't call Off-scores of 110-115 evidence of extreme amount of EPO usage.This isn't my logic -- even Ashenden tells us in his papers that pre-2009 data can have a bias that breaks the integrity of the model used to judge the data. And the ABP requires an expert group determination of an abnormal blood profile, not just a collection of suspicious values. By my logic, you are not qualified to judge no matter how you turn your head or squint your eyes.

pop_pop!_v2.1.1 wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

You said Paula was hardcore EPO using. Yet her marginally suspicious scores occurred 6 months after her 2:15. Scores like 110-115 don't seem harcore when we see Shobukhova's scores around 135-155.

This is a subtle yet completely dishonest retelling.

Besides that the elegance of the bio-passport is that the blood records all the distortions of oxygen related doping takes that long to 'wash out' without more doping.

By your logic, if I tilt my head and squint my eyes just right, she might be clean. She's not clean.

Truly pathetic once again, Rekrunner!

There are total double standards in the sport and how iris broadcast/publicised. Take for example Makhloufi, when he won the Olympics bbc's Steve Cram made his opinions very obvious, then Gris pictured training with Mo in Kenya and the doubts stop. Similarly we have this huge contradiction with Paula commentating on events and airing her opinions on drugs and calling for transparency yet won't release all her data. The sport is carefully packaged and run by a small mafia like group in the uk!

It will be extremely hard to expose Radcliffe now that Coe is Athletics' cappo di tutt'i capi!

Coe, the new Godfather of track and field! It's now all about omertà... like never before!