Here are my thoughts
15. John Mascari (Indiana St) - Not on his home course, he takes a small step back this year.
14. Martin Hehir (Syracuse) - Great PRs, will hopefully be able to hang with Knight through most of the race.
13. Marc Scott (Tulsa) - Consistent with great PRs.
12. Morgan Pearson (Colorado) - Sat out last year for one last run at glory, he will be all in.
11. Jim Rosa (Stanford) - Both brothers are wild cards and could be anything from top 5 to barely All American. I think Terra Haute suits them better.
10. Mason Ferlic (Michigan) - Great improvement and won't have to worry about the team score as much as the Colorado/Cuse/Stanford/Wisco guys will
9. Pierce Murphy (Colorado) - Out side of Saarel, I think the Colorado guys will all fall in the 8-30 range depending on the day. He had the best track season
8. Sean McGorty (Stanford) - I think he will lead the Cardinal most of the year and help pull Fisher along if he races.
7. Grant Fisher (Stanford) - If he runs, I easily see him being top 10.
6. Malachy Schrobilgen (Wisconsin) - Seems like a natural progression for the junior
5. Anthony Rotich (UTEP) - Only have a cross season, wouldn't be surprised to see him finish 2nd or 20th
4. Justyn Knight (Syracuse) - Last year was a fluke
3. Ben Saarel (Colorado) - Too consistent at NCAA cross
2. Patrick Tiernan (Villanova) - The only one who has put up XC performances in a similar league to the guy on top.
1. Edward Cheserek (Oregon)
As mentioned, the Colorado boys are hard to place. I could easily see Moussa and Winter in the top 15, but they aren't going to have all 5 in the top 15 and I honestly think that was just a career day for Moussa last year.