LRC posted their top 10 (plus HM) individuals heading into the season. What is your take?
Here are my thoughts
15. John Mascari (Indiana St) - Not on his home course, he takes a small step back this year.
14. Martin Hehir (Syracuse) - Great PRs, will hopefully be able to hang with Knight through most of the race.
13. Marc Scott (Tulsa) - Consistent with great PRs.
12. Morgan Pearson (Colorado) - Sat out last year for one last run at glory, he will be all in.
11. Jim Rosa (Stanford) - Both brothers are wild cards and could be anything from top 5 to barely All American. I think Terra Haute suits them better.
10. Mason Ferlic (Michigan) - Great improvement and won't have to worry about the team score as much as the Colorado/Cuse/Stanford/Wisco guys will
9. Pierce Murphy (Colorado) - Out side of Saarel, I think the Colorado guys will all fall in the 8-30 range depending on the day. He had the best track season
8. Sean McGorty (Stanford) - I think he will lead the Cardinal most of the year and help pull Fisher along if he races.
7. Grant Fisher (Stanford) - If he runs, I easily see him being top 10.
6. Malachy Schrobilgen (Wisconsin) - Seems like a natural progression for the junior
5. Anthony Rotich (UTEP) - Only have a cross season, wouldn't be surprised to see him finish 2nd or 20th
4. Justyn Knight (Syracuse) - Last year was a fluke
3. Ben Saarel (Colorado) - Too consistent at NCAA cross
2. Patrick Tiernan (Villanova) - The only one who has put up XC performances in a similar league to the guy on top.
1. Edward Cheserek (Oregon)
As mentioned, the Colorado boys are hard to place. I could easily see Moussa and Winter in the top 15, but they aren't going to have all 5 in the top 15 and I honestly think that was just a career day for Moussa last year.
What is your Early Season Individual NCAA Top 15
Report Thread
-
-
That would put through three runners (assuming UTEP doesn't send a team)
Colorado 22
Stanford 23 -
Seems like a good list to me.
My darkhorses to make top-15 (ACC love):
Edwin Kibichiy (Louisville) - 23rd last year, 8:33 Steeple. Will have a stronger team this year to train with
Thomas Curtin (Virginia Tech) - Redshirted last year. 13:38 5K indoors, 4th at SE Regional and 69th at NCAA in 2013. 7th in the outdoor 5K (1 place behind Knight. Ahead of McGorty, Tiernan, and Leingang) -
15. C. Noelle - If he runs, I think he could be top 20
14. T.Curtain - Good point, forgot about him
13. A, Moussa
12. S. McGorty
11. M. Scott
10. J. Rosa
9. M. Schrobilgen
8. M. Pearson
7. J. Knight
6. M. Ferlic
5. G. Fisher - Hope he doesn't RS
4. B. Saarel
3. P. Tiernan
2. A. Rotich - Hope he makes it a fast race.
1. Ches -
Noelle is interesting. A lot of great 1500 runners have been top 20 guys in XC like Centro, Lomong, Willis, Brannen, Don Sage, German, Webb, Batty and Ulrey. Some haven't had as much cross success like Bayer, Manzano and Fleet. It will be interesting to see if Noelle gives it a try this season, because he is built like someone who could do well at longer distances.
-
Fisher was born in Canada.
-
Canadaman wrote:
Fisher was born in Canada.
Right you are! Fixed. -
You ranked CU women team 2nd, but no individuals in top 15? Doesn't make sense.
-
Canadaman wrote:
Fisher was born in Canada.
Yes but he is a US citizen. His mother is from Texas and he moved to the US when he was very young.
With respect to GF, perhaps some of these rankings are somewhat optimistic for the young miler IMO. 10km on the grass is not the same as 1500 m on the track. Granted (excuse the pun) he did win the last two FL Championships but 5km for a miler is still much different than 10km against physically mature 5 and 10km runners. Nonetheless, GF could be top 50 or even top 25 this year but most likely not top 10 as a true freshman, lower distance training, miler type. Give him some time to develop and he may be on the podium at NCAA cross country one day. -
yes but... wrote:
Canadaman wrote:
Fisher was born in Canada.
Yes but he is a US citizen. His mother is from Texas and he moved to the US when he was very young.
With respect to GF, perhaps some of these rankings are somewhat optimistic for the young miler IMO. 10km on the grass is not the same as 1500 m on the track. Granted (excuse the pun) he did win the last two FL Championships but 5km for a miler is still much different than 10km against physically mature 5 and 10km runners. Nonetheless, GF could be top 50 or even top 25 this year but most likely not top 10 as a true freshman, lower distance training, miler type. Give him some time to develop and he may be on the podium at NCAA cross country one day.
+1 agreed. -
no way Fisher beats sean mcgorty or places in the top 15
-
cu trackfan wrote:
You ranked CU women team 2nd, but no individuals in top 15? Doesn't make sense.
Oregon Men were 2nd in 2009 with no runners in the top 15 (Puskedra was 21st)
Wisconsin men were 2nd in 2003 with 174 points. That's easily achievable with a spread from 20-50. -
I think Fisher has one of the highest ceilings in the race. The way the races have gone since Ches became dominant, I think he could really excel. There have been recent NCAAs where the top 60 are like 4 seconds apart at 5k. If that happens again, I could see Fischer in the top 15. If Rotich, Tiernan or someone else pushes the pace Kate Avery style, he could be much farther back.
-
It will be interesting to see how GF handles the step up in race distance as well as training mileage. I think that is going to be a huge factor for him and he is probably a year away from being a top individual. But if the race is slow, his chances are certainly better. Can't wait to see.
-
Big John FTW
-
Stanford has the ability to pack-run with like three kids in the top 20. i could see 3 coming in a cluster in the teens. colorado may do the same...i'm reserving the pick until a few weeks from now (to see how they run in bigger races together)
-
I don't think it is the case with Ches, but every time you start to think someone is unbeatable recently, They get beaten. It happened with Lawi, with Kithuka, with Jenny Barringer, Sally Kigeygo (on the track), and Sam Chelanga (on the track).
-
Ever heard of Erik Peterson? The guy ran 28:26 unattached for Butler at Payton Jordan last spring and nobody has said anything about him. 22nd at NCAA XC last year as well.
-
Butler Butts wrote:
Ever heard of Erik Peterson? The guy ran 28:26 unattached for Butler at Payton Jordan last spring and nobody has said anything about him. 22nd at NCAA XC last year as well.
He is good and could very likely be in the top 15, but there were 14 non-seniors ahead of him last year and then guys like Morgan Pearson and Jim Rosa returning, incoming freshmen and guys like Justyn Knight that seriously underperformed last year but have more impressive PRs.
