Letsrun.com Continues to Perpetuate Usain Bolt Myths

Clerk wrote:

Barakus Obama wrote:

Kirani James is not 1.80m, to seriously believe that tells me something about your knowledge of t&f. Have you ever watched a DL meet? WC? Olympics?

Kirani James is 1.91m - 43.74

Michael Johnson is 1.85m - 43.18

LaShawn Merrit 1.88m - 43.65

Butch Reynolds 1.93m - 43.29

Quincy Watts 1.93m - 43.50

Danny Everett 1.87m - 43.81

Steve Lewis 188m - 43.87

No, you are correct, big athletes just dont exist in sprint events. Just ignore that some of the best 400m runners ever have been tall, yeah nevermind that.

Are there other big athetes in T&F that you ignore? Well yes, the 400m hurdlers...I mean sprinters:

Kevin Young 1.94m - 46.78

Edwin Moses 1.86 - 47.03

Angelo Taylor 1.88m - 47.25

Javier Culson 1.88m - 47.72

Etc.

Yeah, they just dont exist.

Thank you for fact checking James. And, for adding context with 400m hurdlers. If Bolt were running fast 400m hurdle times, the idea that big athletes could be the very best may be legitimate.

But this thread is about the myth that Bolt's size explains his cleanliness in the 100m. Clearly, these big athletes are not advantaged in 100m. And among a controled(ish) group of big athletes who do in fact compete 100m, size is shown to be a disadvantage.

The idea that Bolt's amazing times are believable and clean because a he is a unique physique and build (in that order) is not true. Eliminating that explanation and others leaves us with only one explanation: doping.

Clerk wrote:

Sam F wrote:

Let's put it another way. You just don't have a large enough sample size (world beating 100 m runners) to make these kind of correlations. The other problem is the rarity of 6'5" individuals in general, so for every 6'5" individual that isn't a world beating 100m runner there are many many times more 6'1" runners that are not either. In general you would have to say that world class sprinters are taller than the average. So you could correlate being "tall" to being a world class sprinter, that's about it.

Lastly even if he is doping, it still doesn't fit into your logic, because if being 6'5" is such a disadvantage your known dopers should have been faster.

Usain Bolt could very well be the most talented 100m runner in the world, he is 6'5", and may or may not be doping

I don't need a larger sample size of 100m runners. Those saying that Bolt's physique makes his times believable, or that he can be the fastest person, faster than known dopers, because he has an uncommon body, need to do more to show that such a large body can be clean, and fast at the same time. Because as it stands right now, athletes his size are worse at the 100m compared to other events.

It is a myth then, that being 6'5" is the advantage a clean runner needs to be beat than known dopers regularly, and to run the fastest times ever. Eliminating that and other explanations leaves only one to explain his dominance over other dopers: doping.

clerk wrote:

The weekly recap, in discussing Schippers, brought up the idea that big sprinters have an advantage. This has been discussed in isolated pieces before, but let's tackle it all at once. In fact, let's tackle the whole Usain Bolt narrative:

Usain Bolt's performances are of believable because:

- He has a unique build

- He was a talent from a young age

- He has a normal improvement curve

- Everyone in Jamaica focuses on sprinting (If it were as popular in the US/other countries, there would be other Bolts)

-He works harder than everyone else!

That's how he is faster than 4 other dopers in the top-five all time. That's how his and Nesta Carters performances are the only non-tainted in the top-31 all time.

And if these explanations are debunked, the only possible explanation for his performances is doping.

So first:

- He has a unique build

...or more specifically

> Bolt's performance is believable because he is a physical outlier.

...and sometimes...

> He is an outlier because most tall athletes would be vetted into the 400m, and don't run the 100m.

Let's look at 400m runners. Even 400m runners at 6'5" are uncommon.:

Kirani James, 5' 11" (1.80 m) 146 lbs (66 kg)

LaShawn Merritt 6' 2" (1.88m) 185 lbs (84 kg)

Luguel�n Santos: 5' 8" (1.73 m) 134 lbs (61 kg)

Lalonde Gordon 5' 10" (1.79 m) 183 lbs (83 kg)

Chris Brown 1.78 m (5 ft 10 in) 75 kg (165 lb)

Big athletes just don't exist in sprint events. Flat jumpers aren't big. High jumpers are all over, but the taller, the skinnier in general. Even pole falters have the physique of 400m runners; Walker is 6'2", Lavillenie is 5'10"

So are there big athletes in TnF? Yes, decathletes. Heres London's results:

100m is the first event. top 10:

1 1 3 3214 Ashton EATON USAUSA 10.35 OB +0.4 1011 6' 1" (1.85 m) 185 lbs (84 kg)

2 2 3 3220 Trey HARDEE USAUSA 10.42 SB +0.4 994 6' 5" (1.96 m) 212 lbs (96 kg)

3 3 3 1301 Damian WARNER CANCAN 10.48 SB +0.4 980 6' 0" (1.84 m) 183 lbs (83 kg)

4 4 3 3132 Oleksiy KASYANOV UKRUKR 10.56 SB +0.4 961 Height, 191 cm, Weight, 82 kg.

5 5 3 1898 Rico FREIMUTH GERGER 10.65 +0.4 940 6' 5" (1.96 m) 203 lbs (92 kg)

6 6 3 1223 Luiz Alberto DE ARA�JO BRABRA 10.70 SB +0.4 929 6' 2" (1.88 m) 194 lbs (88 kg)

7 1 4 1799 Daniel AWDE GBRGBR 10.71 PB -0.7 926 6' 0" (1.82 m) 181 lbs (82 kg)

8 7 3 1164 Eduard MIKHAN BLRBLR 10.74 +0.4 919 196 cm (6' 5"); Weight: 86 kg (190 lbs)

9 2 4 2834 Sergey SVIRIDOV RUSRUS 10.78 PB -0.7 910 6' 4" (1.92 m) 187 lbs (85 kg)

10 3 4 1469 Yordani GARC�A CUBCUB 10.80 SB -0.7 906 6' 5" 180 lb.

Can't compare Bolt to these guys on time, (but just to make it obvious, he is .5-1.21 seconds ahead; ~5-21% better...) but...

Each of these athletes scored more in another event, except Damien Warner (shortest in the top 10). Most scored more points in the Long jump. Only Damien Warner and Sviridov were worse in the 110m hurdles.

400m results (just to compare):

1 1223 Luiz Alberto DE ARA�JO BRABRA 48.25 PB 897

1 3220 Trey HARDEE USAUSA 48.11 SB 904

2 1164 Eduard MIKHAN BLRBLR 48.42 SB 889

3 1469 Yordani GARC�A CUBCUB 48.76 SB 873

1 3214 Ashton EATON USAUSA 46.90 963

2 1898 Rico FREIMUTH GERGER 48.06 906

3 1301 Damian WARNER CANCAN 48.20 PB 899

4 3132 Oleksiy KASYANOV UKRUKR 48.44 888

6 2834 Sergey SVIRIDOV RUSRUS 48.91 866

1799 Daniel AWDE GBRGBR DNS 0

full summary

http://www.iaaf.org/results/olympic-games/2012/the-xxx-olympic-games-4871/men/decathlon/1500-metres/points

So what do we learn?

In Bolt's event, he is an extreme outlier with regards to his build.

Among Bolt's build, almost all were better at something else.

There is no pattern to explain Bolt's performance at 100m. Bolt is the outlier, not his size. The defense that the best 100m runner believable because of exceptional size doesn't hold up. Big sprinters just don't happen.

So, if his build is not the advantage, what is it? What Bolt doing to augment the natural limits of bigger athletes? What is Bolt doing to bring his big body beyond it's natural?

Gold medals happen at the edge of the bell curve, but there is no explanation for how Bolt got there, except doping.

But he was a talent from the Junior Ranks!!!

.......

- He was a talent from a young age

No. He was bred. He was farm-raised. Somebody was paying for him to travel to Dr. Muller-Wolfharht since he was 16. Someone saw the potential and since then managers, coaches, and sponsors have had their fingers in the pot since he was a kid.

The idea of Bolt as a pure, innocent, untainted junior athlete has to come to an end.

http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/7324261/germany-dr-hans-wilhelm-muller-wohlfahrta-great-healer-quack-hyperactive-syringe

Muller-Wohlfahrt says they were first introduced when Bolt's coach brought Bolt, then a quiet 16-year-old, to his Munich clinic. Over the years, the doctor says, he has become a fringe member of Bolt's support staff, his duties ranging from tending to Bolt's aches and pains, to analyzing his sprint mechanics during track workouts when he's in town, to crafting specific exercises aimed at helping him withstand the rigors of the sport.

"The first time he came nobody knew him, but his coach sent him here to ask me whether it was worth it to train him," says Muller-Wohlfahrt, who himself trained as a track athlete growing up in a small town in northern Germany, by the Baltic Sea. "He [the coach] was not sure whether he was able to train very, very hard. I said, 'If he does this and this exercises -- yes, then he can.' So he started to do exercises and then the success grew more and more. For example, yesterday he phoned and he does his exercises. We have a very good connection, very good correspondence."

and from

http://espn.go.com/olympics/story/_/id/7294360/olympics-usain-bolt-being-fastest-man-world-espn-magazine

Q: You've been diagnosed with scoliosis. How has that affected your training?

A: When I was younger it wasn't really a problem. But you grow and it gets worse. My spine's really curved bad [makes "S" shape with finger]. But if I keep my core and back strong, the scoliosis doesn't really bother me. So I don't have to worry about it as long as I work hard. The early part of my career, when we didn't really know much about it, it really hampered me because I got injured every year.

The most talented and gifted man in track and field? Born with a curved spine.

Showed unbelievable talent from an early age? His coach was unsure about him until 16

An accomplished junior athlete, untainted and innocent? Only after being managed and coached by doping coach Glen Mills, and treated regularly by Dr. Muller-Wolfahrt since 16.

Okay, but he still has a normal improvement curve!

....

- He has a normal improvement curve

Then lets talk about improvement curves. We know that gold medalists live on the edge of bell curves. Most Junior World beaters are there because they are insanely talented, but also because they're more mature than the rest. The result is that their career isn't as long. American Milers Jim Ryun to Alan Webb are example of great juniors who still had typical career paths; those paths just started several years earlier than normal.

Want to talk sprinters? Lets talk about Obea Moore: 16 year old runs 45.15 400m and never goes faster. J-Mee Samuels runs 10.08 in high school and only 10.03 3 years later. Their career fits a normal curve, just that it started at a younger age.

The case of diminishing returns is typical. (and if you regularly see proportional improvements from 19.75 to 19.19, then you must be witnessing some incredible coaching). Even more than that though, is the "double peak". The familiar case is the 30-35+ year old who is on the end of their career and turns to doping instead of face the realities of life after. But for an athlete who just moved the whole curve ahead a few years? A double peak shouldn't happen.

A junior phenom is, by definition, beyond the curve. Applying the same averages and expectations for the general population can't work with the athletes never started on that curve to begin with.

Here is his 200m progression, the only event he ran throughout his career.

2015 19.55 -0.1 Beijing (National Stadium) 27 AUG

2013 19.66 0.0 Moskva (Luzhniki) 17 AUG

2012 19.32 +0.4 London (Olympic Stadium) 09 AUG

2011 19.40 +0.8 Daegu 03 SEP

2010 19.56 -0.8 Kingston (NS), JAM 01 MAY

2009 19.19 -0.3 Berlin (Olympiastadion) 20 AUG

2008 19.30 -0.9 Beijing (National Stadium) 20 AUG

2007 19.75 +0.2 Kingston (NS), JAM 24 JUN

2006 19.88 +0.4 Lausanne 11 JUL

2005 19.99 +1.8 London (CP) 22 JUL

2004 19.93 +1.4 Devonshire 11 APR

2003 20.13 0.0 Bridgetown, BAR 20 JUL

2002 20.58 +1.4 Kingston, JAM 18 JUL

2001 21.73 +0.6 Debrecen 14 JUL

(Full graph available here:

http://www.iaaf.org/athletes/jamaica/usain-bolt-184599#progression

)

Started working with Glen mills in 2005

I see a career in three phases: Pre-Mills (2004 and earlier), 400m/200m in 2005-2007, and 100m/200m 2008- on.

I see an athlete who started their improvement curve early, and got their peak years around 18-22. I see one who then got frustrated that he wasn't living up to the hype and expectation to keep progressing, and with some insane intervention, arrived on the world scene in a wholly new way.

...

- Everyone in Jamaica focuses on sprinting (If it were as popular in the US/other countries, there would be other Bolts)

Well, 21 of them have been banned for doping. (Including 3 throwers, two jumpers, and a coach. Two of them were Bolt's teammates. That is not a national sports culture. That is a doping culture.

Ren�e Anne Shirley has done well to expose the protectionism JADCO offered its athletes; that there was no to little testing done on the island, except before they left for international competition. That is a doping culture.

...

-But he works harder than everyone else!

I don't think anyone actually uses this to explain his performances. We know is diet, partying, and season breaks are the opposite image of a 100% committed elite.

So here we have an athlete, the only non-busted athlete in the top-five all time. With the only (except for Nesta Carter) non-busted/implicated performances in the top 31.

http://postimg.org/image/4zpwceh9n/

THERE IS NOTHING TO EXPLAIN HIS PERFORMANCES. The only possible explanation left for a human running that fast is doping.