ACC XC Prediction thread

poor Miami, can never get a break

I feel as if we are approaching this in a method that doesn't make sense. King and Visokay were not 6th and 8th because the UVA team ran blazing fast times. They were there because they frankly had a bad day. For comparison sake look back at the 2013 results when both UVA and UNC were top 20 teams.

2013:http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/251086-Panorama-Farms-Invitational-2013/article/22411-RESULTS-Panorama-Farms-Invitational-2013#.VgiZDo9Viko

in 2013 Kyle ran 24:00 and he ran 20 seconds slower this weekend. He made huge strides over that 2013 season where he ended up finishing 18th at NCAA's. (also a very odd year due to the mud). But even their team average time was 8-9 seconds slower than the top two teams the prior year. Adam is also a great runner but has struggled with some inconsistency in his career, which isn't something you like to rely on. On a good day he could very well be an all american. but this shows what a bad day looks like for him

2015:

great race by them but lets not get too excited crowning them as a podium to for beating a constantly overrated Furman program and a bunch of unranked schools. With that said I can see UVA as a top 10 team but there is a 0% chance that they beat syracuse this season. At any meet and any distance.

aubums wrote:

I can see UVA as a top 10 team but there is a 0% chance that they beat syracuse this season. At any meet and any distance.

There is a non-zero chance that UVA beats Syracuse, in my opinion. I'd put it at 20%.

The good news is we'll see them face off 3 times--Wisco, ACCs and Nats. We'll get a really good read on 10/16 at Wisco.

Don't count UVA out, once Maric's special sauce takes hold, they're gonna be unstoppable!!!

Dont forget their number 5 guy at Panorama is Weaverling, an MD guy.

acc xc fan wrote:

Agree that 'Cuse has the low sticks in Knight and Hehir. But you're only as good as your fifth man in XC.

'Cuse is deep, too. Don't get me wrong. But I do think UVA can beat 'Cuse at ACCs. They're both going to Wisco, so we'll get a great preview there.

I will say that, even if 'Cuse beats UVA as Wisco, ACCs are at FL State this year, which is a flatter, faster course. Perfect for Knight, but also very good for some UVA MD guys like Wynne and Marsella. Will be fun to watch.

I think UVA could be on the podium this year. You heard it here first!

So what do people think of Duke on the men's side?

horse wrote:

So what do people think of Duke on the men's side?

They had one guy do well and beat an overrated UNC. Whoop-dee-doo

After this last weekend, I'm still pretty comfortable with this. The top 4--'Cuse, UVA, Louisville and NC State--are clearly better than the rest of the ACC.

Louisville's top 4 are scary good. NC State's searching for a 5th man, too.

'Cuse and UVA don't skip a beat on nos. 4, 5, 6, 7, ... That's why they're so tough.

UNC and VA Tech are still TBD. Notre Dame and FL State seem like they won't be able to threaten the second tier teams (NC State and Louisville).

We'll know a lot more on 10/16.

My picks for next week, in order of finish within the Men's ACC:

Wisco:

1. 'Cuse

2. UVA

3. NC State

4. Notre Dame

5. UNC

6. Fl State

Pre-Nats:

1. Louisville

2. VA Tech

3. Duke

4. GA Tech

5. Clemson

Evan Chiplock baby

acc xc fan wrote:

Agree that 'Cuse has the low sticks in Knight and Hehir. But you're only as good as your fifth man in XC.

'Cuse is deep, too. Don't get me wrong. But I do think UVA can beat 'Cuse at ACCs. They're both going to Wisco, so we'll get a great preview there.

I think UVA could be on the podium this year. You heard it here first!

Do you really think that UVA could be Syracuse? Syracuse's fifth guy at Coast to Coast is a 28:45 10k guy. I know that Virginia has depth, but there is no way they could be Cuse. And Syracuse is like Colorado, they train for cross. No way they lose ACCs this year.

can they? yes.

will they? probably not.

How about Virginia Tech coming in second after Syracuse?

xc dad wrote:

How about Virginia Tech coming in second after Syracuse?

No way. UVA is too good. It's pretty clear (barring major injury or someone completely blowing up) that it's going to be 'Cuse, then UVA at ACCs.

I see VA Tech challenging the second tier (Louisville and NC State) though.

Best case scenario for them is 3rd.

After Wisco and Pre-Nats, I'm re-redoing my Men's prediction:

Barring injury or blowups, you can take these top 2 to the bank.

1. Syracuse. They could beat Colorado this year. They're that good.

2. Virginia. Laid an egg at ACCs last year. They're just too deep this year for that to happen again. (Remember, you can run 9 guys at ACCs. UVA's 9th guy is better than most team's 5th man.)

The next tier is basically coming down to the battle of the 5th man in NC State and Louisville vs the relative consistency of VA Tech.

3. NC State. I'll take NC State because of their consistency and improvement. But, they're banking on two Frosh (Baldwin and Hall). One of them has to run well for NC State to beat the next two teams.

4. VA Tech. Looked great at Pre-Nats, but that was one performance. They're no. 5 is a 1500m stud and they're 6th guy is good, too.

5. Louisville. Their top 4 are scary, but 5th man is too weak.

Tier III is tough, too.

6. Florida St. Better performance at Wisco. Home course.

7. Duke. It pains me to put them here :( They have a low stick and have shown improvement.

8. Notre Dame. They're nicked up. If healthy, they could be as high at 6th.

9. UNC. Falling six spots from last year. They peaked at the right time last year, so they could do better than this, but they lost a lot of talent, too.

Everyone else / don't care...

Last observation. I think the ACC could get 6 team into Nats assuming Florida State auto-qualifies.

Bump. ACCs are Friday am.

+ Flotrack does indeed project 6 ACC teams into Nats.

So what is the scoop on the Florida State course? Fast-Slow, Hilly-Flat, etc.

xc dad wrote:

So what is the scoop on the Florida State course? Fast-Slow, Hilly-Flat, etc.

Very fast, lots of room for passing and flat by most people's standards, slightly hilly if you are used to pancake flat courses.

Get your ACC picks in the LRC Fan Polls

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2015/10/2015-ncaa-cross-country-fan-polls-give-us-your-top-10-and-conference-predictions/

We'll tabulate them by Friday.