Daily debate: "Dibaba’s medal chances are arguably stronger in the 5,000, as she has scant experience" in 1500

blotto wrote:

The shorter the race, the more tactical it is, the longer the push/kick is delayed, the more PR does not matter. It's who is in the right position, exactly when the real kick starts, and how is fast each is over 75, 100, 125 or 150 meters. Some people are great at short bursts 50-75.

In this case, Dibaba.

blotto wrote:

Others from 150.

Also Dibaba.

blotto wrote:

Still others from 300.

... Dibaba.

blotto wrote:

That's not always the one with the best PR over the longer distance.

Dibaba. I'm seeing a pattern here.

blotto wrote:

Will she medal in the 1500? Yea, probably. Will she win. Likely, but I would not be totally shocked to see her in 4th or 5th in a tactical race. Certainly less shocked than if it happened in the 5k.

I agree overall, but would be shocked to see her off the podium without a fall. If you took the 1500 field and had them race a 200, she'd probably win?

Les wrote:

Yes, this is true. Just to satisfy my own curiosity once, I looked up how the WR holder did in the last 10 Olympic finals if he was in the final (the men's race). The WR holder, if present, only won about half the time.

How many of them set the WR in the same year? Being WR is not relevant in itself.

Then how many had run a time 6 secs faster than #2 that season?

bobballen_18 wrote:

I'm sure he will correct me if I'm wrong, but he was talking about falls. In that context, you can compare 10 seconds in the 1500 to 10 seconds in the 5000 meters - 10 seconds, or however much one would lose from a fall, is much easier to make up in a 5000 meter race than a 1500 meter race.

Ah, now I see what he meant. I didn't connect the falling point with the time gap point being the rationale.

J.R. wrote:

Lenny Leonard wrote:

Everyone will be keying off of Ayana because they know that if you beat her, you will probably get a medal.

Right, all they need to do is run 14:13, and outkick her down the stretch.

LOL

She's going to Rudisha the competition by leadingw gun-to-tape ala 2008 Pamela Jelimo

Mrr82 wrote:

Les wrote:

Yes, this is true. Just to satisfy my own curiosity once, I looked up how the WR holder did in the last 10 Olympic finals if he was in the final (the men's race). The WR holder, if present, only won about half the time.

How many of them set the WR in the same year? Being WR is not relevant in itself.

Then how many had run a time 6 secs faster than #2 that season?

World records are rarely set, and even more rarely set in Olympic years (1 out of 4 years). Of the last 10 1500 world records, only 2 were set in Olympic years and the record holder lost both times -- Steve Ovett (3 WRs before the Olympics) and Noureddine Morceli (1 WR after the Olympics). There is much more depth in men's races so there is never a 6 second gap between first and second best time.

Dibaba could fall, cry, fix her makeup and still win the 1500. With her 1500 speed no one is going to beat her in the 5k either. She will have no problem running heats and keeping her legs for when she needs them.

This will sound like a contradiction but I'd say her chances of medalling are better in the 5K but her chances of gold are better in the 1500.

Obviously she is by far the favorite to win both. If she is to lose a medal, though, that seems more likely in the 1500. It's a shorter race, it can be tactical and there's a higher chance of falls/getting boxed in etc. Unless something goes wrong in the race though I'd be very surprised if she lost.

In the 5K it's hard to see her losing a medal. Ayana might have a chance to win because Dibaba will be doubling up but who else can beat her? Unless she's injured I don't think there are 2 other women who can beat her in any kind of race scenario

What does she need experience for when she's more than 6 seconds faster than anyone else, and a better kicker by far?

All she has to do is not fall over, and even if she does her odds are pretty good.

I think the odds are much higher for the 1500. As many have alluded, she actually has competition in the 5000 and will have a few races on her legs by end of week. But to think she doesn't medal in the final of a1500 is short sighted. She ran a sub 2:02 final 800 on her WR off a fast pace. I don't think there is really anyone who can hang with her regardless of tactics if she decides to take a long finishing kick in the final. The rounds will be much easier.

As far as the final of the 5000, Gen will be smart to let a tactical race develop, assuming one does, and then do the same thing... Kick from about 800 out. It's going to be interesting to watch.

Does everybody realize that Dibaba closed the last 800 of her WR in 1:59, a time that Rowbury and Simpson still haven't been able to run fresh, and Hassan has run only once chasing Sum? Hang back for a few laps, then slam the pistons for 600-800, and it's all over.

Of course, rounds will affect the times, but everybody runs them, and DIbaba's 5000 strength will come into play here. The only one that can beat Dibaba is Dibaba, and I don't think she is a choker, she has missed some big finals from injury though.