"Despite having the world record in the 1500, Dibaba’s medal chances are arguably stronger in the 5,000, as she has scant experience running tactical races in the shorter race. "
After reading it, I was debating if it's true that Dibaba's medal chances are statistically higher in the 5000 than the 1500. Obviously, the odds of her not medalling are very small but it's an interesting intellectual exercise to think about.
It certainly can be argued that her medal chances are higher in the 5000 than the 1500 falls that ruin your chances for a medal are much more common in the 1500 than the 5000. If she fell in a 5000, she'd have a lot more time to get up and still medal. Think of it this way, there are a lot of women in the world that can run within 10 seconds of her in the 1500, there are very few that can do it in the 5000.
Working in terms of the odds for a medal in1500 being higher, I'd say is the fact that the 1500 is first. The 5000 comes at the end of Worlds. Thus there is higher opportunity for food poisoning, illness, etc.
What say you?