Daily debate: "Dibaba’s medal chances are arguably stronger in the 5,000, as she has scant experience" in 1500

Multiple rounds in the 1500 also comes into play.

I disagree. She's a former WIC in the 1500. Also remember that despite her incredible season, she's not the world leader in the 5k! There's no one within 6 seconds of her in the 1500. Dibaba hasn't doubled like this either so who knows what effect the rounds of the 1500 + 5k semi will have on her in the final.

i'm gonna say her chances are better in the 1500 just based on her PR being so much better than anyone else's right now. Ayana can hang with Dibaba in a fast 5000m, especially with no rabbits. In the 1500, any pace under 4 minutes will leave the kickers like Simpson too tired to close in 59 or faster, which GD will be capable of. In fact, if Genzebe chases a sub-14:20 at worlds, Ayana should love that because she can draft for 11-12 laps while GD takes the wind. I doubt the worlds 5k will be faster than 14:40 though.

reed wrote:

i'm gonna say her chances are better in the 1500 just based on her PR being so much better than anyone else's right now. Ayana can hang with Dibaba in a fast 5000m, especially with no rabbits. In the 1500, any pace under 4 minutes will leave the kickers like Simpson too tired to close in 59 or faster, which GD will be capable of. In fact, if Genzebe chases a sub-14:20 at worlds, Ayana should love that because she can draft for 11-12 laps while GD takes the wind. I doubt the worlds 5k will be faster than 14:40 though.

We're not talking about gold medal chances. We are talking about medal chances.

I agree with you that Ayana could very well beat her in the 5k so I'd say her 1500 chances for gold are higher but the quote refers to medal chances.

I think the big issue is running rounds. Assuming she gets through all rounds, it's 5 races in a week:

8/22 1500m heat

8/23 1500 semi-final

8/25 1500 final

8/27 5000 heats

8/30 5000 final

The 5000 final will be the last race. I haven't done the research to be sure, but I assume this is the most intense racing over the shortest period that Dibaba has ever done.

If you are weighing medal chances between the 15 and 5, by the time Dibaba gets to the 5000 final, the value of experience will probably be offset by fatigue. I would not rate her medal chances for the 5000 as being higher than the 1500 for that reason.

Just regarding Dibaba's chances in the 1500, it doesn't mean much that her PR is so much faster than everyone else's unless she goes at that pace from the gun which in championship racing is extremely unlikely. The thing to ask is how much better is she than her competitors over say, the last 700 when she is likely to ramp it up? And how is Dibaba at running in a crowd? I have only seen her excel in paced DL races where she just has to run, not race. Racing is much more mentally stressful. Does anyone know what her fastest last lap is? If she can only run say, 59, there are several other women who can do that. I still like her chances, but I don't think they are as high as a paced time trial race.

Well considering Dibaba closed her WR in 59, I would have to say that Dibaba looks like a definite favorite in ANY type of race.

Some of you fail to realize that the person with the faster PR does not always win a race without rabbits. It happens all the time.

Galen Rupp was just beaten at USA's by two guys with massively slower 5K PR and also slower 10k, 3k, and 1500/Mile PR. There's no way he can lose, right.

But he did.

Seb Coe lost to Steve Ovett in the 1980 Moscow 800. Seb was the better 800 buy by far, yet he lost.

The shorter the race, the more tactical it is, the longer the push/kick is delayed, the more PR does not matter. It's who is in the right position, exactly when the real kick starts, and how is fast each is over 75, 100, 125 or 150 meters. Some people are great at short bursts 50-75. Others from 150. Still others from 300. That's not always the one with the best PR over the longer distance.

But, she can just go out fast, right. She can burn them off, or tire them out so they can possibly kick with her. Well not everyone is good at leading, pacing a race own their own. We are not all (when healty) German Fernandez's. She might go out too fast; or push too long; or go too slow, or wait too long to start the race.

The longer the race, the more chance that there are fewer runners left who can still kick with you. Yes, there might be one or two, but not necessarily 4 or 5.

Will she medal in the 1500? Yea, probably. Will she win. Likely, but I would not be totally shocked to see her in 4th or 5th in a tactical race. Certainly less shocked than if it happened in the 5k.

This makes a lot of sense.

I f I can remember correctly, she didnt' make the finals in London. The heats were just too fast and yet, she was in very good shape going in.

I wouldn't say that it is a lack of experience in the 1500m so much as more depth in the field.

Simpson, Rowbury and Hassan can all run a 58 or faster final lap in a tactical race. In the 5000m, Dibaba is so much fitter than the field that she should be able to put 60m on the field in the final 200m with the exception of Ayana.

Still, I am not buying Ayana as an upset on Dibaba. She is in a very tough situation where she is closer to the #1 runner than anyone behind her. She could easily sit back and run for silver, but will likely have to answer any move Dibaba throws down OR try to dictate the race herself. Both situations make her the big target to the rest of the field. Everyone will be keying off of Ayana because they know that if you beat her, you will probably get a medal.

You guys make it sound like Dibaba is going to go with "the plan" and acquiesce to a sit and kick strategy. She is going to go out hard and break everybody else.

If we are specifically taking medal chances, as originally asked, would say her chances are better at 5k. I think she has an excellent chance at 2 golds, tbh -- not that it takes a genius to speculate about that. But even though she is the more dominant runner in the 1500, as has been pointed out already, more unexpected things can go wrong in the 1500 that can ruin the medal chances of a dominant runner. Less of the "crapshoot factor" in the 5k.

Lenny Leonard wrote:

Everyone will be keying off of Ayana because they know that if you beat her, you will probably get a medal.

Right, all they need to do is run 14:13, and outkick her down the stretch.

Dibaba could probably run 3:53 - 3:54 leading form gun to tape in good weather.

Yes, this is true. Just to satisfy my own curiosity once, I looked up how the WR holder did in the last 10 Olympic finals if he was in the final (the men's race). The WR holder, if present, only won about half the time.

'Think of it this way, there are a lot of women in the world that can run within 10 seconds of her in the 1500, there are very few that can do it in the 5000.'

Big difference between 10 seconds at 5,000m which might be bridgeable and at 1500m where it is not

Les wrote:

Just regarding Dibaba's chances in the 1500, it doesn't mean much that her PR is so much faster than everyone else's unless she goes at that pace from the gun which in championship racing is extremely unlikely. The thing to ask is how much better is she than her competitors over say, the last 700 when she is likely to ramp it up? And how is Dibaba at running in a crowd? I have only seen her excel in paced DL races where she just has to run, not race. Racing is much more mentally stressful. Does anyone know what her fastest last lap is? If she can only run say, 59, there are several other women who can do that. I still like her chances, but I don't think they are as high as a paced time trial race.

Her last 700m in Monaco was 1:45!!! That's 60 second pace held for 300 meters longer... Not to mention she had already run a 2:04 800m up to that point...!

Point is, no other woman could dream of closing that fast even off a slow pace.

Queen Dibaba!

That doesn't work. You can't compare time gaps in races of different distances. Yes, some women can stay within 10 seconds in the 1500m, but only because it's shorter. That would be the equivalent of like 30 seconds in the 5000m.

10 seconds is a lifetime in 1500m, whereas in the 5000m it is less significant (but, still a lot).

I'm sure he will correct me if I'm wrong, but he was talking about falls. In that context, you can compare 10 seconds in the 1500 to 10 seconds in the 5000 meters - 10 seconds, or however much one would lose from a fall, is much easier to make up in a 5000 meter race than a 1500 meter race.