Could Dibaba get the 800 WR?

mkk wrote:

Equivalence/Prediction Tool wrote:

Web based equivalence/prediction tool available at Runnerspace.com. Enter a time, select a distance, click the button and it will show you a list of equivalent times over all racing distacnes, shows results from 4 different methods and a final average of the four:

http://tools.runnerspace.com/gprofile.php?do=title&title_id=801&mgroup_id=45577

Ah I see it doesn't show the 4 methods until you submit a time.

That's still not a prediction calculator. Those 4 methods are equivalency methods. Averaging them together gives an average equivalency not a prediction. If the 4 methods were predictions then averaging them would give an average prediction.

The premise is flawed anyway. Can't predict using only a single time. You need more information.

It does a pretty good job. I've entered some times for myself and others and the times were extremely close.

Joe Vigil uses such tables in his coaching. I also know a coach who has worked with a number of great runners over the years (including a former world record holder/Olympic champion,) who swears by such tables when planning progressive workouts for the season.

She is not going to come close to the 800 record because she does not have 400/800 type of speed. I have seem her outkicked several times and as far back a Jr XC, she has won by setting a hard steady pace in all of her races. If she had 400/800 type speed, she would run at least some of her races depending on her kick. What she has is tremendous endurance and speed for a mile/5K type runner. With that said, if she can run a 3:50 1500, I would suppose she could run at least a 1:57 800m. People always thought KB had better speed than he actually did because he was able to outkick most 5k/10k runners, but his kick came from simply not being as tired as his opponents. But, when he ran a tactical 5K, he got outkicked several times by true milers. Unless you are a world class 400m runner (51 point), I don't see how it would be possible to run a 1:53 800m. Anyone who has coached high school boys, would understand this. Rupp, Ritz, Hall, Fernandez and LV could faster than Dibaba is a 1500m and a 5K, but would struggle to run a 1:53 800m.

+1

Runners have a range over which they excel, with base speed an indicator of where that range may lie. Some rare runners may be able to develop great speed endurance and run an 800 faster than their 400 time would indicate. In Dibaba's case, IMO it wouldn't be worth doing specialized training for an 800 because that would diminish the training base she has for 1500m-5000m and I assume she could likely run quite a fast 10000. Would be fun to see her attempt an 800m if she could fit one into her schedule, she might surprise everyone with a 1:55.

mmk wrote:

New Bacardi-Infused RumGum™ wrote:

But this is LetsRun, where my dreams become reality.

Seriously, what is your point? I tucking know what the IAAF tables are and what they aren't; as do, I would assume, most people who know about the tables in the first place. That doesn't make them irrelevant to the discussion.

Speaking of which, anyone else have an opinion on the actual subject at hand? Anyone know if Dibaba's even run an 800 as a pro?

You are making things up again. I never said the IAAF tables are irrelevant. Why do you keep making up arguments?

I already told you my point. I said the IAAF tables are not predictions. How do you not know what my point was? It was the only thing that I said in my first post. It shouldn't be that difficult to understand.

.

What you said was clear, concise, and not difficult to understand. Yet so many here seem to think that XX:XX time in one event means that the same athlete can, or even should, run YY:YY time in another.

It's not hard to make predictions. All you have to do is look at what a bunch of athletes who ran both the 800 and 1500 ran for each event and come up with a conversions. If Dibaba were an 800/1500m specialist she could run 1:51. She's not, so she'll be slower by a few seconds..

yyy wrote:

Doubt it. Kratochvilova had 47.99 speed. Of course, she would approach it from the distance side. but I don't see her running faster than 1:55.

Kratochvilova was the biggest and most obvious doper in the history of T&F.

New Bacardi-Infused RumGum™ wrote:

mkk wrote:

IAAF tables don't "put" anyone at anything in another distance. They aren't conversion tables. They are performance equivalency not time predictions.

Well, now you have a decision to make. Are you just gonna be a dick, or are you going to recommend some better tables?

ignore that weinie. this is a fun question. 3:50 is comparable to 1:52 for 800. could she run a low-1:53 then? maybe. it would have to be a really close split, like 56.0/57.2

Using

http://timescalculator.appspot.com/

and Dibaba's 14:15 and 3:50, it results in:

400 0:54.28

800 1:55.43

1000 2:27.48

1500 3:50.0

1-mile 4:08.35

3000 8:10.35

2-mile 8:49.30

5000 14:15.0

Which would giver her the WR in the 800, mile, and 2 mile. I think those are all possible in the future for her

Sorry, not the 800 WR, but close to it, so its possible

New Bacardi-Infused RumGum™ wrote:

It seems unlikely that she'd ever go after it; I don't even think she's run that distance in a big meet before.

BUT, IAAF tables put her at 1:53.00; Mercier says even lower.

What say you? Could she do it?

Not sure her current doping regimen would give her enough speed.

Genzebe Dibaba now holds 5 WRs (ind. + outd. incl. bests): 1500m - 1500m(i) - 3000m(i) - 2 Miles(i) - 5000m(i). In her current form she obviously can improve on this. All the records from 1500m to 5000m are easily within her capabilities at the moment. Maybe even the 1000m records. This would be 12 (14) records (bests). For the future, also the 10000m should be possible. But I don't think she really has a chance for the 800m (outd.) record.

But we should not forget that with Almaz Ayana there is another women capable of the 5000m record at the moment.

Sorry, I totally forgot about the level of the 3000m record. Don't know if she can break this one. At least she should give it a serious try.

'I already have natural speed which I don’t need to work on, so in training I’ve been working more on my endurance ... This change in preparation has paid off and I have to thank my coach for making it happen. I already had four indoor world records, but I wanted to break them outdoors. I have been dreaming of an outdoor world record for ever. Now I want them all: the 1500m, the 5000m, even the 800m.'

malmo wrote:

mmk wrote:

I already told you my point. I said the IAAF tables are not predictions. How do you not know what my point was? It was the only thing that I said in my first post. It shouldn't be that difficult to understand.

.

What you said was clear, concise, and not difficult to understand. Yet so many here seem to think that XX:XX time in one event means that the same athlete can, or even should, run YY:YY time in another.

I agree: it was so easy to understand that his post was completely unnecessary, and simply derailed thread. Of COURSE IAAF tables (and other similar methods) don't offer a "prediction" -- such a thing is logically impossible unless (at bare minimum) you enter two different performances at different distances so that you have some crude estimate of the runner's relative strengths.

The starting point for the discussion was clearly that a 1500 in 3:50 is (according to one set of tables) comparable to an 800 in 1:53. If the OP thought that meant Dibaba would run 1:53, he wouldn't have started the thread in the first place. The whole implicit premise of the thread was "I know she won't run 1:53, but what do you think she WOULD run?"

'I already have natural speed which I don’t need to work on, so in training I’ve been working more on my endurance ... This change in preparation has paid off and I have to thank my coach for making it happen. I already had four indoor world records, but I wanted to break them outdoors. I have been dreaming of an outdoor world record for ever. Now I want them all: the 1500m, the 5000m, even the 800m.'

http://www.iaaf.org/news/feature/genzebe-dibaba-1500m-world-record

Well, her last workout was 2 x 400 in 60s with a 700m recovery at 2:08 pace. I'm not sure she could even get 2:00 without that recovery jog.

But seriously, if she were as good at 800 as 1500 she could run

230 x (8/15)^1.135 ~ 112.7

Just under 1:53.

1.135 reliably converts between distances from 600m through 3000m.

Bad Wigins wrote:

230 x (8/15)^1.135 ~ 112.7

1.135 reliably converts between distances from 600m through 3000m.

3:50 for 1500m equals 8:25 for 3000m? definitely way out

hold the phone wrote:

I agree: it was so easy to understand that his post was completely unnecessary, and simply derailed thread. Of COURSE IAAF tables (and other similar methods) don't offer a "prediction" -- such a thing is logically impossible unless (at bare minimum) you enter two different performances at different distances so that you have some crude estimate of the runner's relative strengths.

The starting point for the discussion was clearly that a 1500 in 3:50 is (according to one set of tables) comparable to an 800 in 1:53. If the OP thought that meant Dibaba would run 1:53, he wouldn't have started the thread in the first place. The whole implicit premise of the thread was "I know she won't run 1:53, but what do you think she WOULD run?"

No, you are assuming too much. The proof is in this thread. Did you even bother to read it? You claim that "of course" these tables don't offer predictions yet several posters continued to provide links to other tables claiming that they are prediction tables which they are not. Clearly not a case of "of course".

The poster attempted to prevent that misunderstanding yet people kept making it afterward.