Will Emma Coburn follow suit in Lausanne with an AR?

AR 9:05.45 for Coburn

My Thoughts wrote:

AR 9:05.45 for Coburn

Is that with or without a stumble?

what will happen first?

coburn sub 9 or jager sub 8?

How fast do you think she goes to get a drug test if she breaks it? Need that time ratified.

In good weather, she will smash her American record. She ran 9:15 in tough (if that was prior to Sunday) conditions after a round in terrible conditions and she has a solid 1500m pr this year as well--not at Jager's level but improvement. And we know that she has the will to frontrun if necessary to push the pace.

father time wrote:

what will happen first?

coburn sub 9 or jager sub 8?

seems more likely jager breaks 8min first, for many reasons.

there've been like 11 or 12 guys to break 8min, but only one woman to break 9min. 8:00 for guys is kinda like 9:10 for women.

looking at the all-time lists, 9:10 has been broken 20 times by 10 different women.

8:00 has been broken 36 times by 12 different people.

considering that the men's steeple has much more top-end depth than womens (for now), i'd say that 9:10 is about equal to 8:00

if you look at the iaaf points table, 8:00.11 = 1258 pts and 9:10.10 = 1219 pts. the womens equivalent to 8:00.1 is 8:54.8 according to this table, which seems pretty far off.

despite the statistics on how many have done it, there is simply that Coburn has to take 24 times as many seconds off as Jager. 24 times!

Thanks for the analysis Reed, who the heck are you? Clearly you know a lot about steeple!

I was in Eugene, Emma looked so very comfortable. I think she has a sub 9:10 coming in Lausanne. But the real fun may be in Monaco the next week. Given the right weather we might see something special.

9:09.91

Emma's races after the "AR" have been all about winning. Jager was less concerned about finishing second than not breaking 8. I think she might win Lausanne (depends on her kick), but I doubt she will lower the AR.

Jager is going to break 8 next time out.

After her comfy 9:15 in the blazing heat, 9:05 in her next race with decent conditions. Look for 9:16ish from Garcia as well.

Yes American record for Coburn on Thursday in Lausanne 9:07, 9:03 by seasons end.

Sorry, I should have said that she will smash her pr and Simpson's AR in the steeple, since Coburn's time wasn't ratified.

Who is Reed wrote:

Thanks for the analysis Reed, who the heck are you? Clearly you know a lot about steeple!

I was in Eugene, Emma looked so very comfortable. I think she has a sub 9:10 coming in Lausanne. But the real fun may be in Monaco the next week. Given the right weather we might see something special.

No problem.

For those predicting sub-9:07, don't hold your breath. looking at the all-time list, 9:07 seems to be some sort of barrier for female steeplers. link to list here:

also, coburn would need to be pulled to a time that fast, something nobody but rabbit-turned-elite virginia nyambura is capable of. remember, she was the rabbit for a DL meet in May this year (with a 9:58 PR) who was supposed to go through 1k in 3:07 then stop, but she instead led past 2k and won the race in 9:20ish). so unless some meet offer a sub-9:15 steepler big bucks to hit 2000-2400m at 9:05 pace, don't expect coburn to run that fast.

Again Reed. Good stats. Who are you?

AR in Lausanne given a good rabbit. Monaco even better. Beijing slower than Monaco? End of the season race somewhere......, better than Monaco.

My guess 9:08.

Rio year. Sub 9:05. Yes sir.

Again Reed. Good stats. Who are you?

AR in Lausanne given a good rabbit. Monaco even better. Beijing slower than Monaco? End of the season race somewhere......, better than Monaco.

My guess 9:08.

Rio year. Sub 9:05. Yes sir.

reed wrote:

For those predicting sub-9:07, don't hold your breath. looking at the all-time list, 9:07 seems to be some sort of barrier for female steeplers. link to list here:

http://www.alltime-athletics.com/w3000hok.htm

I agree, anything under 9:07 to this point is highly suspicious, and I don't say that often. If she broke 9:07 I would consider that the clean world record.

father time wrote:

what will happen first?

coburn sub 9 or jager sub 8?

Jager is less than a half second off and Coburn is 11 seconds off, so most likely Jager goes sub 8 before Coburn breaks 9

Also without the fall Jager would have been WELL UNDER 8 likely 7:56, so fitness wise Jager is already there.

Actually I think if Simpson went back to the steeple she would be more likely to go sub 9 than Coburn as she has run 3:57 for 1500 and 8:29 for 3k, so is much faster than Coburn on the flat and Simpson ran a 9:12 steeple 1 second slower than Coburn, NOTE the last steeple Simpson ran she was 21 years old, she has never run a steeple after her 22nd birthday, so she never ran a steeple in her prime.

If you want a great candidate to go sub 9 and even break the steeple world record, how about Almaz Ayana ran a 9:22 world junior record and is now running the 3000 in 8:22 and the 5000 in 14:14 she says she won't run the steeple anymore, well see.

With even pacing I think Emma's race was worth sub 9:10, and in a diamond league with competition the whole way and cooler temps I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a 9:05 or quicker.