Will the weather in Boston help Meb?

Seems like a headwind would not allow for a break-away like last year. So, nope, the weather will definitely not help Meb.

Why would it.

PTO wrote:

Why would it.

a 16 mph headwind the whole race could help Meb

It will likely slow down the race. Winning times are likely now in the 2:08 - 2:09 range. Without that headwind probably we're looking at 2:06-2:07. So I think this is ok for Meb - it will bring the pace closer to his comfort zone.

Probably it will be a standard marathon - large pack for 90 minutes then whoever can fight hardest for the last 40 minutes wins. Meb fights really really hard.

It might keep him in the pack longer, but that's irrelevant to the win. Meb didn't even close the fastest last year. Chebet chased him down from a long ways out before he couldn't quite finish it. He's not going to close out a slow race faster than a bunch of Kenyans.

How many paced marathons on fast courses has Meb raced? He is likely not as "slow" as his PR indicates.

I think challenging conditions help him since ( as others stated) it keeps him in the pack longer. Also, anything that could lead to mistakes by athletes with less race savy than Meb is a plus for the defending champ.

I agree with agip.

agip wrote:

PTO wrote:

Why would it.

a 16 mph headwind the whole race could help Meb

It will likely slow down the race. Winning times are likely now in the 2:08 - 2:09 range. Without that headwind probably we're looking at 2:06-2:07. So I think this is ok for Meb - it will bring the pace closer to his comfort zone.

Probably it will be a standard marathon - large pack for 90 minutes then whoever can fight hardest for the last 40 minutes wins. Meb fights really really hard.

Ritz got 3rd at the World HM Champs in rain, ran 60:00 too, Ritz is tough

I think if there's rain and a strong headwind Ritz is top 3

NOP Skeptic wrote:

Ritz got 3rd at the World HM Champs in rain, ran 60:00 too, Ritz is tough

I think if there's rain and a strong headwind Ritz is top 3

Hasn't Ritz said he's running off an abbreviated training cycle?...and that he's been dealing with a foot injury? I have a hard time seeing him place top 3 in a major marathon without having an ideal buildup...

Though It'll be fun to watch who can get the first american honors, with Meb and Ritz so close in the NYC half a few months ago. I just hope they're close enough to the front that there's coverage of their battle (hopefully, they'll wanna cut to Meb since he's the defending champ and a compelling story line)

Anything (heat, cold, rain, headwinds, snow) that slows the race down will improve the chances for the Americans to finish higher.

Cold and humid is a New England specialty. Add the headwind for pure nasty. Meb ain't shy about rockin the crazy lookin gear needed to keep from going hypothermic. Go Meb! Good luck to everyone running and I hope you have the right gear too.

With those winds I bet we'll see a large group through 35K for drafting purposes and then every man for himself. Going it alone earlier than 30K seems self destructive.

This sounds right, to which I would add that the Kenyans and Ethiopians typically do not like cold, wet, windy conditions.

Mr. TKO wrote:

With those winds I bet we'll see a large group through 35K for drafting purposes and then every man for himself. Going it alone earlier than 30K seems self destructive.

Ritz will do well. Top 4.

Wouldn't be surprised if he happens to win.

I hope it's not dreadful weather but it looks like it. I hope the camera feeds don't suffer too much as a result.

I'm picking Bernard Kipyego for the win. The guy just seems to get better with every race. He looked real impressive in his win in Amsterdam last year.

Nobody is naming the most likely beneficiary of lousy weather, 2:10 Canadian Dylan Wykes!

Wind's dying down, variable directions, gusts up to 6mph (lol). In other words, near PERFECT racing conditions.

The "mist" will allow for efficient cooling and help Meb not to overheat. Also, as 'Merican, he is used to this weather and loves it while the Africans have never run in rain before.

Wind in Hopkinton is now 3mph from the North

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=Hopkinton%2C+MA

That means cross winds. Even though 3mph is hardly noticeable.