Well this thread was about obtaining EPO in Kenyan back rooms without a prescription, not all that other stuff. But since you asked what I honestly believe, let me explain the many sources of my doubts:- "massive" is a vague word, that can mean different things to different people (as is "rampant" and "widespread")- Kenya might have a massive doping problem. I only claim we have not seen evidence that suggests it has "massively" infiltrated at the top. Documentaries with journalists posing as athletes who can score EPO is not evidence that real athletes are doing the same thing -- just that it's possible that real athletes could be doing the same thing. We are constructing plausible "what if" scenarios, rather than any real investigation. Likewise, accusations, or suspensions, of foreign agencies without demonstrating any cause or basis, is not evidence.- the increase in doping positives looks like something changed recently, in the last few years, not the last few decades.- The recent increase in doping positives, and the (lack of) response from AK, indeed show that Kenya has doping and doping control issues. I would not use the words "massive", or "rampant", or "widespread" as they can convey different meanings to different people, based on their own mindset.- Contrary to popular belief, Kenya has out of competition doping control.When evidence comes out showing a stronger link between doping in Kenya, and the top athletes and their agents, I will change my mind to factor in what I think the new evidence shows. I don't need to decide today, once and for all, what the truth must be, only to never change my opinion when new facts come to light.Funny you mention EPO not working for Kenyans. Putting aside arguments about smaller marginal gains, I believe it doesn't work for top Kenyans, because it hasn't worked for any top national class athlete of any nation:- the statistical evidence, or even anecdotal, for national class athletes that EPO works for running events from steeple, and up, is sparse, if not non-existent. If you look outside East Africa, at the rest of the world, you see that most every nation struggles to surpass the pre-EPO marks set by an earlier generation. Notable exceptions tend to be African imports. If EPO worked for every nation's national class athletes, I would expect to see more statistical evidence of improvements in time, and national or area records. The obvious conclusion to draw is that 1) the rest of the world did not take EPO (curious since this was the undetectable EPO-era when their cycling compatriots were out of control), or that 2) EPO doesn't work for any top athlete, or 3) both.This makes me wonder why anyone thinks EPO could even be a plausible explanation, let alone the only explanation, for top Kenyans (and Ethiopian and other East African) major improvements for events from steeple to the marathon. There is no real precedent or corroboration in the rest of the world. Therefore we have to extrapolate from evidence obtained in controlled studies (e.g. on volunteers running 3K in 11:00 lasting for six to twelve weeks), or borrow from the experience of cycling (where a 3 week cycling event is quite different from a one shot running event, and the cyclists also took steroids, testosterone, HGH, and blood transfusions, under the strict control of an expert doping doctor).Independently, I'm not convinced that EPO, RBC boosting, or blood transfusions can help in the marathon, since it is an event with a slower pace that would seem to be not limited by oxygen delivery or utilisation, but rather other factors like heat accumulation or glycogen depletion, or muscle damage.
trollism wrote:
Ok, so Kenyans are now getting busted all over the shop.
Every decent Kenyan has a European agent/doctor/manager shadowing them.
EPO is easy to get hold of in Kenya.
Kenya doesn't do any in house testing.
Do you still honestly believe that 'Kenya has a massive doping problem' is a crazy conspiracy theory? You're barking mad if you can't accept they don't.
At least play the 'Kenyans don't benefit from EPO like evil white people do' card. It's probably more credible than Kenyans don't dope.