Lydiard is God wrote:
Remember, correlation does not equal causation.
Thanks genius, none of us knew that.
And guess what doesn't = non-causation? Simply saying: 'well, the rates were trending down anyway, so....any further trend down was gonna happen with or without any action." As I quoted you, at least one of those papers finding the null result (i.e., no result of gun control measure) would have found the same result if there had been ZERO or NEGATIVE murders (yes, impossible) in Australia. They way they set up their model, no matter how few murders happened in the country, it was gonna show a null result. Completely silly. As I referenced for you already:
" The log of the death rate (with the analysis focusing on rates of change of fatalities rather than absolute levels of change) is com- monly used to eliminate the absurdity of a negative death rate. Using such an approach (and even examining the 1979–2003 period), researchers found support for a statistically significant effect of the NFA on total firearm deaths."
AND...
["The massive Australian gun buyback occurred over two calendar years, 1996–1997. Firearm homicide and firearm suicide dropped substantially in both years, for a cumulative 2-year drop in firearm homicide of 46 per cent and in firearm suicide of 43 per cent. Never in any 2-year period, from 1915–2004 had firearm suicide dropped so precipitously."
Yes, this *could* have a big coincidence, however, that is unlikely considering how huge the drop was, how unprecedented it was in history in their country, and how it matched up with other studies demonstrating a 'less guns = less suicides and murder' relationship.