Predict my marathon time

If you don't crash and burn you could go around 2:53. I have never been able average within 30 seconds of marathon pace during 20+ mile training runs, but after a taper along with the race day atmosphere, marathon pace feels like a warm up jog.

This is an interesting thread.

The facts:

OP runs a 17:40 5k, which has the same vdot as a 2:49:xx marathon.

vdot of 57.5

3:00:00 is 53.5 vdot

OP runs a 20 miler at 3:00 pace and it was clearly not a race effort.

Some people say that he'll run 3:02:xx

That might be the case, but not based on the information the OP gave. I think sub 3 is a nice target for the OP.

Don't taper too much. Taper just a little, because you are every week able to do a long run at this pace. If you taper too much you will lose efficiency and your metabolism changes in a wrong way.

Fot the next 2 weeks, I would do maybe 22 miles, and then 24 miles. Then 20 again. Week after is marathon Do them at 7:00 pace.

YOU CAN RUN SUB 3.

This has been my experience as well, my long run pace felt fast at 6:35/mi and after some big weeks and tapering, I ran sub 2:40.If you had raced a half marathon at some point in your career, I think you would be able to predict your ability a little better. But I've run both, the half and the marathon are two totally different races, but the HM is still helpful in determining a realistic goal, more so than some training runs of 15-20.

milethon wrote:

If you don't crash and burn you could go around 2:53. I have never been able average within 30 seconds of marathon pace during 20+ mile training runs, but after a taper along with the race day atmosphere, marathon pace feels like a warm up jog.

I agree I definitely need to back off on my recovery runs. I rarely, if ever run slower than 7:30, even on easy days. I would imagine my tempo pace will come down pretty quickly if I do this. The 20 miler, I ran 10 @ ~7:00 pace then 10 @ ~6:45 pace. I've never raced a HM so don't have a time there, only been running "seriously" for about 18 months. Going to do 18-20 tomorrow, but will target a slower pace for the first 14 or so this time. I'm not planning a huge taper since I'm only running 55 mpw now as is. Not so sure I'm comfortable with a 20 miler the week before the race though... Will be sure to report back with results.

Neglected to see your 17:40 race when posted your long runs too fast.

Plus if you are doing 10 @7:00 and then 10@6:45, for sure you have the sub-3. 2:57 if you do things right. Good luck and please post back.

You will choke.

3:56:34

Is your primary goal to BQ or run as fast as possible?

If you want to be reasonable sure of BQ, run a 7:00-7:05 pace the first 20 miles. If you feel great, pick it up a bit. You probably wont make up 3-5 minutes and run sub 3 though.

If you want to try to go sub-3 then you are risking blowing up and not BQing at all, but 2:59 does sound a lot more cool than 3:04.

20 miles is also A LOT less than 26. Don't get too confident based on 18-20 mile long runs. Personally' I'd thrown in a 22 or 23 miles just for confidence boosting. Maybe even run most of it slow and the last 2-3 miles push it just to simulate the mental game.

I wound not listen to the person who said your marathon time should be 2:49 based on vdot charts (I think s/he's referring to Jack Daniels' charts). 2:49 would be extremely aggressive, especially on your weekly mileage. Sure, you could be an outlier, but I wouldn't count on it.

Yes, this is an excellent thread. I agree with your analysis, and your point about metabolism seems spot-on. I tend to feel this way about my running paces, and when I am "in a groove" I do not like to change too much. For comparison, McMillan puts my recent 1:26:10 half at a 3:01 full. My training is quite similar to the OP's in approach, but he is faster than I, both racing and training. Hence, I agree that he could (or perhaps should?) go sub-3. Please let us know how it goes.

yeah, but anyone can BQ. sub-3 is something different.

BQ is no longer a worthy goal since you can just poney up the money and get in.

Forget the plan to BQ. Go for the gold. Take that pitching wedge and sink it.

So you've only run farther than 16 miles twice? Watch out for a bonk. Are you practicing fueling?

running caddy wrote:

yeah, but anyone can BQ. sub-3 is something different.

Good job reading the thread. OP said their original goal was to run 3:03 and BQ, so if thats the case, the safe way to do it would be to try to run 3:03, not sub 3. And if "anyone can BQ" then is a 6:51 pace really all that much different from a 7:00 pace?

I'm sure you've all been losing sleep for the past month, waiting to here how my race went yesterday, so here is an update...

Here is a breakdown of the split paces from my garmin:

1 (6:53)

2 (6:51)

3 (6:49)

4 (6:49)

5 (6:49)

6 (6:52)

7 (6:51)

8 (6:46)

9 (6:50)

10 (6:50)

11 (6:50)

12 (6:48)

13 (6:48)

14 (6:48)

15 (6:44)

16 (6:47)

17 (6:49)

18 (6:47)

19 (6:43)

20 (6:45)

21 (6:46)

22 (6:48) feeling great!

23 (6:47) I got this.

24 (6:55) uh oh... This is starting to hurt

25 (7:06) yep, this sucks

26 (7:06) where the F*%# is the finish line!?

26.38 (6:59)

Official time: 3:00:12.

12 damn seconds. In reality, I DID run 26.2 miles in less than 3 hours. However, I must suck at running tangents, and ran an extra .18 miles, as measured by my garmin, putting my time for the marathon course over 3 hr by 12 seconds. So, all you nay sayers can now say "told you so". Overall, I'm pretty pleased, and ran almost exactly as planned up to mile 25, where things got tough. Maybe started to pick up the pace a bit to early, but pretty even split overall. There's always next time, right??

Well done. I didn't think you had a chance of sub 3:10 with that horrible training routine. With better training you can go sub 2:50. Get a coach.

Impressive pacing. Congrats on the PR.

+.18 is actually really good over a marathon that isn't run in a straight line.

Thanks for coming back to update your thread. I do enjoy reading the race results after a prediction thread is started.

Congrats on your time and your very even splits up to mile 25. With some more training guidance from a trainer I see you getting to 2:50!

Come back and update this thread before your next marathon.