What Kind of Times Indicate Sub 3 is a Realistic Marathon Goal?

That's a bad idea if you really want to take a crack at sub-3. I always laugh at that 'drop the hammer at mile 20' BS. You'd have to run 6:39 for the last 10K and you can barely run 6:30 for a standalone 5K. Ain't gonna happen.

I'd get to 6:52 no later than the 5th mile. You should go out a little slower than sub-3 pace and gradually pick it up until you hit your first 6:52 at mile 5. If it's your day you'll pick up some of those seconds from there on out. Of course this only applies on a flat course. You definitely have a shot.

Very good points. I think you're on to something.

I do close fairly well, as I closed my last mile at a hair under 6 in the half marathon, but this is obviously a whole different beast.

Thanks!

Hi,

With two weeks to go, I was wondering if anyone had a suggestion for one last workout with this goal in mind ten days out from the marathon?

Recently a few I've done are:

20 Miles at 7:24 pace (last 10 at 7:07), 14 miles at 7:00, last 7 at 6:40 / last two at 6:30, 2 x 3 miles with 800 meter rest @ 6:27, 8 x 1 mile at 6:28 with 90 second jog between, 10 x 800 "yassos" at 2:54 avg (last three at 2:49).

Lowered my mileage to 50 over 5 days this week (peak was 75). Time for one more workout that might have some impact. Any suggestions would be awesome!

fall marathon wrote:

Very good points. I think you're on to something.

I do close fairly well, as I closed my last mile at a hair under 6 in the half marathon, but this is obviously a whole different beast.

Thanks!

0/10. You can close a 1.25 half marathon with a sub 6 last mile but couldn't break 65 mins in a 10 miler. I believe that you're actually trying to run a sub-3 but are telling lies about previous performances for other posters to back your attempt. What's the point in lying to make yourself look stronger than you are and lie to yourself?

Well. Its the truth. So thats all I can say.

The ten was six days after a 20k as well.

Not enough long runs. You need more than just 5.

Also, your MP miles are not long enough. 7 or 9 should be simple. You need to be ready to run 26 MP. That's barely one-third the distance.

Extend your MP about 3 weeks out to about 12-15. Should be tough, but doable if you plan to go 26.2 MP.

Do 20+ milers every weekend, but different kinds.

Your on the edge of going sub-3 and might do it if you execute perfectly on a good course in good weather, but chances are you'll still come up short. More long runs. More MP.

Your on the edge of going sub3

I respectfully disagree. With a 40+ min recent 10k time? Not a chance. You need low 38 at a bare minimum.

Your on the edge of going sub3

I respectfully disagree. With a 40+ min recent 10k time? Not a chance. You need low 38 at a bare minimum.

fall marathon wrote:

I ran a 40:25,

Good luck. You're going to need it. Why not re-evaluate your goals?

McMillan has you at 3:09:37, a 7:14 pace. McMillan assumes adequate training for each distance. McMillan is ambitious in the conversion too.

You'll be lucky to break 3:10:00 going out at 6:59. Speaking from experience. Respect that 10k equivalent.

sub 19 for 5k

38 and change for 10k

64 ish for 10 miles

1:24-25 for 1/2 marathon

Good luck and let us know how you do!

steve red wrote:

sub 19 for 5k

38 and change for 10k

64 ish for 10 miles

1:24-25 for 1/2 marathon

Good luck and let us know how you do!

it depends on the individual obviously.

I'm a 19:low, 38:high, 1:26 and for me a realistic goal is more like 3:10.

The above would sound in line with 3:05 maybe for someone well developed aerobically.

Isn't 18:15, 38:00, 62:30 and 1:23 a more realistic benchmark for sub 3?

I know some runners will say they go sub 3 with a 40 min 10k, but I either call BS or little effort on that 10k race.

Thanks for the interesting discussion.

Its all good.

I forget what context i gave in page 1 here and im not going back there, but with a 40:19 pr and a 1:26:50 pr from may I already ran 3:05:45. Since then I ran 1:25:39 and upped max mileage from 55 to 75. Im not speedy but have decent endurance. :)

Also, many moons ago (11 years) i've run 4:57, 10:57, 17:50, and 37:45. But these days thats hardly relevant. :)

I think you will need perfect conditions to go sub-3. My guess is that you'll be 3:02 or so. Good luck. BTW: next year try to improve your 10k speed. You'll see a big difference at the longer distances.

Thank you!

That's a very reasonable assessment.

If I can punch my ticket to my first boston (sub 3:04 these days), I'm happy! Sub 3 is just a bonus.

It would also probably be a good idea to run a 10K that doesn't have 600 ft of gain. :)

I focused this cycle on getting used to upping mileage signficantly and adding lots of LT long intervals at HMP, and fast finishing long runs (never did that before), so I was afraid adding VO2 stuff besides at the last few weeks to sharpen would start to overload an overuse injury I have that flares up from time to time (annoying piriformis thing)

So, the original reason I bumped this.... any good last workouts you'll recommend for 10 days out? Thanks!

Srsly wrote:

You got it no problem. It's a cake piece.

Don't you mean a cake walk

I like to update a thread like this because I'm always left a little curious about what happened to original posters in the same position.

I ran 3:00:08 (1:29:38 first half).

So I really don't think 10k "speed" is the be all, end all. Intelligent pacing on the other hand is.

At least I have another goal for the spring...

Thanks!

Wow. Congrats on the great work. Impressive.

fall marathon wrote:

I like to update a thread like this because I'm always left a little curious about what happened to original posters in the same position.

I ran 3:00:08 (1:29:38 first half).

So I really don't think 10k "speed" is the be all, end all. Intelligent pacing on the other hand is.

At least I have another goal for the spring...

Thanks!

Thanks for following up, that's a great time. What do you think you should have done differently?