Can Rupp Threaten the WR at 5000?

my observation wrote:

The calculator says he could break 12:50 on a good day. That looks right to me.

Some people will continue to make a lot of noise against Rupp, but he is really on the level. 12:37 is super tough, but I do feel 12:45 is within reach.

ksksk wrote:

dkny64 wrote:

No. I happened to watch the video of Bekele's 12:37 the other day. It was an absolutely maxed out effort by someone with significantly faster PRs than Rupp at 3000m and at 10000m.

Can Rupp break 12:50? Sure. 12:45? Maybe, but that would make him the #4 performer of all time. 12:40? Not a chance. There are exactly 3 guys who have ever done it - Haile G, Kenny B and Daniel "7:20 for 3000m" Komen. Rupp just isn't at that level.

Perhaps you should watch Bekele's race again. He had more than 1 sub60 lap in that run. Not what I would call a maximum effort. Neither was his 10000 which probably should have been sub 26:10 that day.

When you're running an average of 60.6 a sub 60 isn't that out of the realm of crazy pacing changes...what are you smoking today?

iidk wrote:

guy that runs stuff wrote:

How about Mo Farah, I feel like he always waits until the last 400-600m to go hard, and I also feel like he never just went balls to the wall in a race in a while. If Rupp could go 12:45 maybe, that's a big maybe, then Farah should be able to bust out a 12:40 if he ever went hard in a 5k. It seems like he cared more about that 1500m where he ran 3:28 than any 5k.

Why would Farah be able to run 12:40 based on Rupp running 12:45?

Because Mo has similar 10000m speed to Rupp and better under-distance speed. Rupp is fast, but not 3:28 high for 1500m fast. The disappointing thing about Mo for me is that he can't be bothered to see how fast he could go. If anyone could take a rip at Daniel Komen's 3000m record, it's Mo, But Mo would rather get paid the big bucks to show up at road races [or make half-assed attempts at running 100m from blocks] than do anything of historic significance. Hey it's his life, he's famous, he makes lots of money and there's nothing I can do about his choices other than not be a fan [which makes precious little difference to Mo.]

I love Rupp, but this is the answer. great post.

dkny64 wrote:

iidk wrote:

Why would Farah be able to run 12:40 based on Rupp running 12:45?

Because Mo has similar 10000m speed to Rupp and better under-distance speed. Rupp is fast, but not 3:28 high for 1500m fast. The disappointing thing about Mo for me is that he can't be bothered to see how fast he could go. If anyone could take a rip at Daniel Komen's 3000m record, it's Mo, But Mo would rather get paid the big bucks to show up at road races [or make half-assed attempts at running 100m from blocks] than do anything of historic significance. Hey it's his life, he's famous, he makes lots of money and there's nothing I can do about his choices other than not be a fan [which makes precious little difference to Mo.]

You are probably right, but if Rupp was in the form of his 3:50 mi indoors and in the same race as Farah & Kiprop last year, what do you think he would have run? I think he would have been towed to half a second or less behind Farah.

I don't think Rupp will get it, but I'd like to see him try it. It was exciting to see him go through 2000m in 5:00 when he ran his 8:07 indoors, why not have him and Farah try to chase a fast 5000m? Go through 3000m in 7:35 and see how well they can hang on.

USA Golds wrote:

I know this is a stretch, but a guy who goes 3:50 & 7:30 indoors and is now in 26:3X shape certainly is ready for a phenomenal 5000, or will be in a few weeks. He's a class ahead of other americans who have done 12:55-12:56, probably at least ready for 12:45-12:48 right now.

By the end of summer, could he be attacking 12:40? That's right at the door.

Other than becoming a new father, and that is a factor, he seems ready to get there!

The 5k outdoor track world record, in both Bekele's performance and Geb's performance that preceded it, were shining efforts in which the record-breakers had crappy pacing. I'm thinking, if Nike can put together some ridiculously good pacing, up to a maximum distance, then maybe he's got a shot. Perfect pacing up to 4k would be vastly better than what Bekele or Geb enjoyed. Maybe do even 4200 meters. But at that point, whatever runner is pacing would be long before thinking of breaking the record themselves... now, if only Mo Farah were track-sharp, they could get both Salazar athletes in there and maybe get away with pacing to 4200-4400 meters. but with just the American mazunga in there, E. African pacers (presumably) would have their limits of willingness to scaffold such an effort, even with a big paycheck.

dkny64 wrote:

No. I happened to watch the video of Bekele's 12:37 the other day. It was an absolutely maxed out effort by someone with significantly faster PRs than Rupp at 3000m and at 10000m.

Can Rupp break 12:50? Sure. 12:45? Maybe, but that would make him the #4 performer of all time. 12:40? Not a chance. There are exactly 3 guys who have ever done it - Haile G, Kenny B and Daniel "7:20 for 3000m" Komen. Rupp just isn't at that level.

While I agree that Rupp breaking Bekele's 5000 record is a long-shot, Bekele himself could have run faster. Watch the video again. He ran almost half of that phenomenal race by himself.

I guess that's possible but I don't really see it. My takeaway from that race was that Mo is "really" a 1500/5000m guy with unusually good endurance.

Mo is a bit of an enigma because of his aversion to time trialing. What could he run in a fast mile, 2000m, 3000m, 5000m or 10000m? Who knows. We do know that making his best effort to race the best 1500m guy going, he could dip under 3:29, which is just kind of sick for someone who doesn't even train the event.

Rupp, on the other hand, has run time-trial type races so we have some sense of what he can do when he's maxed out, and I think those numbers suggest that the very best we could possibly expect from him in an outdoor 1500m is 3:31 low. That would be crazy fast, worth a 3:48.5 - 3:49 flat mile and make him a favorite to make the US team at 1500m when the guy's best event is the 10000m. All great stuff but not Mo's time + 1/2 second = 3:29 low stuff.

Shawn H wrote:

dkny64 wrote:

No. I happened to watch the video of Bekele's 12:37 the other day. It was an absolutely maxed out effort by someone with significantly faster PRs than Rupp at 3000m and at 10000m.

Can Rupp break 12:50? Sure. 12:45? Maybe, but that would make him the #4 performer of all time. 12:40? Not a chance. There are exactly 3 guys who have ever done it - Haile G, Kenny B and Daniel "7:20 for 3000m" Komen. Rupp just isn't at that level.

While I agree that Rupp breaking Bekele's 5000 record is a long-shot, Bekele himself could have run faster. Watch the video again. He ran almost half of that phenomenal race by himself.

Yep, what I've said a couple times on these boards and what seems to get ignored pretty often: the pacing [in that race] was terrible! I think it's one of the most impressive world records out there. It's hard not to think that with fantastic pacing up to 3.5-4k, Bekele in his prime would have ran something even more ridiculously fast.

At 3:50i and now 26:44, he is actually pretty close to wr CAPABILITY in the 5k. I could see him going 12:40-45. You have to realize that is still a very long 4-9 seconds short of the world record. It's one thing to have the potential to do it or come close, but he actually has to go do it. He is much more mentally tough in the 10k and that is by far his best event. Now Mo on the other hand could break the 5k wr although I don't know about now since he did the marathon in the spring.

Galen ran well and was in control as he won. Maybe he could have gone a bit earlier but he also may have tied up like he did at Oxy. Giving him 5 seconds is a lot so I am not sure why people are saying he is in 26:3x shape. Maybe he can ask for a 13:15 first 5000 in Brussels and we can see what happens.

And no he cannot get a 5000 world record. Also, he has never finished very well in a fast 5000. I think he could improve by a few seconds under good circumstances. I wish some other Americans would go for 12:5xs

Shawn H wrote:

dkny64 wrote:

No. I happened to watch the video of Bekele's 12:37 the other day. It was an absolutely maxed out effort by someone with significantly faster PRs than Rupp at 3000m and at 10000m.

Can Rupp break 12:50? Sure. 12:45? Maybe, but that would make him the #4 performer of all time. 12:40? Not a chance. There are exactly 3 guys who have ever done it - Haile G, Kenny B and Daniel "7:20 for 3000m" Komen. Rupp just isn't at that level.

While I agree that Rupp breaking Bekele's 5000 record is a long-shot, Bekele himself could have run faster. Watch the video again. He ran almost half of that phenomenal race by himself.

Agreed about Bekele + already said as much earlier in this thread. To repeat myself, Bekele in fact ran OVER half of his WR by himself. The pacer took him to 2000m in 5:05, Bekele led from there to the end and ran the last 2000m in 5 flat. Insanely good + suggests he could have gone a few seconds faster with better help.

So [again], yes, Bekele was probably good for a bit better than 12;37 at his best, but Bekele's abilities at his best don't suggest Rupp is capable of anything much under 12:50.

I feel less confident saying Mo couldn't challenge 12:37 after last year's 1500m, but I don't think we're ever going to find out + if Mo surprises me and goes record hunting, he should probably start with the 3000m, which is a tough record but seems to suit his strengths.

No chance at the 5k WR.

I think Rupp can run in ~12:49

If you use the 10k = 5k*2 + 1 minute rule, then his 26:44 is equal to a 12:52. Salazar said Rupp could have run 10 seconds faster. I don't totally buy that since Salazar (and coaches in general) tend to talk up their athletes, but lets use it for the sake of argument.

26:34 = 5k*2 + 1, so 12:47. Since the 10k is considered Rupp's best event, his 5k would be worse than his 10k. I think 12:49-12:50 is probably what he could run. You can't really use his 3:50i to guess his 5k time since that's what he ran training for the 3k. He couldn't run a mile that fast doing 5k/10k training.

Kipketer_Pumpkin_Eater wrote:

Perfect pacing up to 4k would be vastly better than what Bekele or Geb enjoyed. Maybe do even 4200 meters.

Do you realize how unrealistic this is? You want someone who can lead a race at perfect pace for 4000 meters running 60.6 laps.

asdefjh wrote:

Kipketer_Pumpkin_Eater wrote:

Perfect pacing up to 4k would be vastly better than what Bekele or Geb enjoyed. Maybe do even 4200 meters.

Do you realize how unrealistic this is? You want someone who can lead a race at perfect pace for 4000 meters running 60.6 laps.

Um, ever heard of more than one pacemaker? So the pacemaker who ends up staying for the 4k pacemaking effort, is really, paced by another pacemaker, who leads to 3k or 2k or whatever. Obviously, multiple pacemakers is more common in 10k and in half-marathon/marathon record attempt settings. I am speaking on a hypothetical spectrum here, additionally. Better pacemaking than the last 5k world records should be expected (the realistic end of the spectrum). But great pacemaking up to 4k of course might seem ridiculous to seasoned track fans (absurd not just out of difficulty but of rubbing some fans the wrong way)

Here are the calculations wrote:I'm using ventolins calculator. WORLD RECORD is 12.37.35

3.50.92-26.44.36---->12.50.49

3.50.92-26.40.00---->12.48.70

3.50.92-26.35.00---->12.47.15

3.50.92-26.30.00---->12.45.60

3.50.00-26.30.00---->12.44.49

3.48.00-26.30.00---->12.42.13

3.46.00-26.30.00---->12.39.77

3.44.00-26.30.00---->12.37.42

3.43.93-26.30.00---->12.37.33

at AR in mile

3.46.91-26.18.71---->12.37.34

What is his actual level?

You are being ungenerous to Rupp :

Use 26'35 as better 10k parameter ( anyone who watched his race would know he's good for 26'35 )

As for speed, no way is a 3'50i worth same outdoors - more like 3'48.0

Try hypothetical 5k with :

3'48.0 / 26'35

To be honest, I think season peak he will be more like :

3'30.0 / 26'30

( Remember, he's done very little training last few weeks, spending most of his time in hospital with his pregnant wife who apparently is expecting twins !

He couldn't have been race sharp & therefore anywhere near 100% for this 10k )

TAA wrote:

No chance at the 5k WR.

I think Rupp can run in ~12:49

If you use the 10k = 5k*2 + 1 minute rule, then his 26:44 is equal to a 12:52. Salazar said Rupp could have run 10 seconds faster. I don't totally buy that since Salazar (and coaches in general) tend to talk up their athletes, but lets use it for the sake of argument.

26:34 = 5k*2 + 1, so 12:47. Since the 10k is considered Rupp's best event, his 5k would be worse than his 10k. I think 12:49-12:50 is probably what he could run. You can't really use his 3:50i to guess his 5k time since that's what he ran training for the 3k. He couldn't run a mile that fast doing 5k/10k training.

Prior to this race the general consensus on this board was that Rupp was a better miler than 10k runner :-)

I bet his 3k mark lines up nicely against his new 10k mark. Keep in mind that Solinsky ran almost the exact same race as Rupp for 10k and came up with 26:59 with 1:58 close right? Didn't Rupp close as fast ( or faster ) off much faster pace? Solinsky then ran 12:55-56 three times that summer. If Rupp were to do what Chris did that summer he should be under 12:50.

But based on his indoor season I think there is more in the tank than 12:49. Can't wait to find out.

Here are the calculations wrote:

I'm using ventolins calculator. WORLD RECORD is 12.37.35...

3.48.00-26.30.00---->12.42.13

3.46.00-26.30.00---->12.39.77

Apologies

You actually have quoted something like 3'30/26'30 estimates

See what it/they give for 3k

Yo may get a further shock !