I've always wondered the same thing. In the sprints the times should close to 10.1x/20.x but the longer distances are the interesting thing here.
There was this quote from Renato (Canova) saying that for a Kenyan 'there is no point for him to start training if he can't run 3000m under 10'.
I would be interested what it means to 'start training' and what are the experiences up to this point.
I mean, yeah there are crazy talents but can they run a sub10 off of NO running training at all? I highly doubt it. I remember hearing about Solinskys first XC race which was in the 19 minute range and Rupp's first XC race was 4k in 13:43 which is good but he was one of the fitter guys at his age because he played soccer for some time then.
I know a guy who ran 13:12 5000m and his first 3k time was 9 flat at age 16 after 5-6 years of light track training (talking about youth training here, not any mileage program) but sub 10 without any training? I doubt it as well.
It still remains uncleared what a kenyan considers as training and what not. The running to school thing is one side but even if they take the bus, every mzungo visiting kenya says that the kids play outside and go along with the runners if they see some until they can't keep pace anymore.
Do that 5 days a week and then you have a very good conditioning and the first mileage 'without 'training'. So its not the same like sitting on the couch all day and therefore a different kind of entry level.
For really doing NOTHING at all i guess sub 20 5k is a pretty good time but even with light sports experience without training for the event a sub 16 seems reasonable for the BEST guys in the world