really didn't have time to do this for you yahoos, but here it is anyway.
I went over every single team's results and analyzed Alan's chances. they're pretty good. why?
the single greatest problem for him will be the swim (which showed). the bike will take care of itself, obviously the run will work out just fine. he will still have a learning curve with running off the bike, but trust me, it WILL work itself out.
back to the swim. there was one outlier at 34s faster than webb. McClarty (female) who often swims fast enough to be a front pack male, swam only 13s faster than webb. thats GOOD news. shoemaker (who;s a $#itty swimmer) swam a great swim, same time as mcclarty. on the average, webb was approx 20-24s down on the best guys, for the swim split. what does this mean in open water?
He should lose 24s x 4ish, or around 1:30-1:40. assuming there was little drafting benefit in this super sprint, he may be able to cut that (right away) to 1:15-1:20. this is out of the gate folks, this is workable! given a year to get comfortable in open water packs, learning to draft properly, learning to start properly, he has a legitimate chance to get that gap under 1min by the end of this year. that makes him a solid 2nd packer, which means he's a top 10 threat in ANY race he does. honestly, that's amazing, regardless of his talent level. pretty eye opening to see this. ok, back to work, there's your full split analysis for today.