RE: The USA will win ZERO distance medals at the World Indoor Championships. 800, 1500, 3000.

MPM99 wrote:

I agree - I think Lagat's gotten awfully confident that he can take gold but I just don't see it happening. I find it comical that nobody yet thinks Rupp will medal - I would be very surprised if he didn't. Gebrhiwet will probably be the hardest to beat.

Did you not watch USA Indoors?!?! No way Rupp beats Lagat, and according to you Lagat can't beat the top two. sooooo

Wossamotta wrote:

Ethiopia's team is still strong. Lagat would have to beat Hagos Gebrhiwet and maybe Dejen Gebremeskel. That's a feat.

Hill raced those two to the wire and Lagat demolished Hill. Advantage Bernie.

haha wrote:

MPM99 wrote:

I agree - I think Lagat's gotten awfully confident that he can take gold but I just don't see it happening. I find it comical that nobody yet thinks Rupp will medal - I would be very surprised if he didn't. Gebrhiwet will probably be the hardest to beat.

Did you not watch USA Indoors?!?! No way Rupp beats Lagat, and according to you Lagat can't beat the top two. sooooo

It's never a good idea to bet against Lagat, but I would like to say I think the US champs might have been a poor indicator of where Rupp is. He doesn't seem to do so well at altitude, so he may be more dangerous at worlds

MPM99 wrote:

I agree - I think Lagat's gotten awfully confident that he can take gold but I just don't see it happening. I find it comical that nobody yet thinks Rupp will medal - I would be very surprised if he didn't. Gebrhiwet will probably be the hardest to beat.

I'm definitely a Rupp fan, but I'm not sold on his medaling.

He has to get past Lagat, Gebrhiwet, and Gebremeskal. Choge and Ndiku aren't terrible either.

If the race was a separate time trial for each compeitor I suspect Rupp would likely win. The problem is that Rupp doesn't deliver yet on final laps in races shorter than 10,000. He can do it, as he ran 52.xx to edge Lagat at the trials in 2012...but that remains the only time I know of where Rupp has really ran beautifully the last 400 in a race shorter than 5000.

If you can't run at least 53.xx for the bell lap you aren't medalling, and I'm not sure Rupp can produce that on command yet.

A reliable source told me that Sleazy Sal will put Elfie on a strong cycle of PEDs to take revenge after that disastrous last meet. Don't count him out.

LM wrote:

If you can't run at least 53.xx for the bell lap you aren't medalling, and I'm not sure Rupp can produce that on command yet.

Not true if it's a fast race. The last lap won't need to be a 53.

With that logic, maybe you think Billy Mills was the last American to medal.

pseudo americans wrote:

Lagat and Lomong really don't count...

I agree, having made my assessment discarding the US indoor champs. Rupp just didn't seem himself in that race - I know some would say "burnt out / overtrained" etc, but I'd hesitate to say such. I think if Alamirew ran in Gebremeskel's place, I'd happily anticipate the medalists being Gebrhiwet/Alamirew/Rupp in whichever order. Not sure about Gebremeskel though.

Side note: Lagat seems overconfident in his chances at gold if you asked me.

iisi wrote:

LM wrote:

If you can't run at least 53.xx for the bell lap you aren't medalling, and I'm not sure Rupp can produce that on command yet.

Not true if it's a fast race. The last lap won't need to be a 53.

Dude, a 53 last lap is a lot slower indoors than outdoor. Remember, indoors is a 200m track...

Lagat has a real good shot at a medal.

Maybe Lomong too.

NotAustin18 wrote:

iisi wrote:

Not true if it's a fast race. The last lap won't need to be a 53.

Dude, a 53 last lap is a lot slower indoors than outdoor. Remember, indoors is a 200m track...

Why did you quote me? Your post has nothing to do with my post.

MPM99 wrote:

I agree, having made my assessment discarding the US indoor champs. Rupp just didn't seem himself in that race - I know some would say "burnt out / overtrained" etc, but I'd hesitate to say such. I think if Alamirew ran in Gebremeskel's place, I'd happily anticipate the medalists being Gebrhiwet/Alamirew/Rupp in whichever order. Not sure about Gebremeskel though.

Side note: Lagat seems overconfident in his chances at gold if you asked me.

Why does he seems overconfident? Even if he is, it's not unrealistic. He won the previous indoors. In the same race, Farah didn't even medal. He got 4th I think.

rekrunner wrote:

With that logic, maybe you think Billy Mills was the last American to medal.

pseudo americans wrote:

Lagat and Lomong really don't count...

lolllll yes.

I don't know what the fields will be like, but Lagat is very sharp right now and he's had great success at World indoors 3k. Rupp should challenge for a medal as he's done repeatedly outdoors the past couple years, though he looked past his peak at indoors. Cain should contend for bronze after Dibaba and Aregawi. Her 4:07 at altitude was worth better than any third runner has done this year. Ajee' Wilson has proven over and over that she is a great championship racer. She dropped her time to 1:58 outdoors last year and she won the U.S. champs indoors. She should contend, depending on what kind of doped up and mannish competitors show up. Finally, Symmonds has run high 1:42 and low 1:43 the past two years and was sick at American indoors, so if he's healthy he should contend, while Sowinski was very strong there. With only six in the final, anyone there has a medal shot.

Grunewald will get clipped in the last lap and come in 4th, then wage Twitter war against the IAAF about how they cheated her out of a medal

Symmonds kicks from the back so he will not medal in an indoor race

Lagat kicks but from the middle or close-front of the pack so he will medal

Rupp won't have it

Cain... Wow this will be close

Leer nah

Lomong nah

Rest of the women nah

Sowinski eh nah

of course, Cain is gone through blind luck, and it's hard to think she wouldn't have medalled.

dumbaposter wrote:

of course, Cain is gone through blind luck, and it's hard to think she wouldn't have medalled.

It's not hard to think that at all. Moser didn't medal.

Cain's been crushing Moser for some time now.