One more Chicago Marathon prediction thread

My take - pace between 7:50 and 8:00 for the first 20, and if you're feeling good then pull out all the stops.

Appreciate the feedback and definitely have considered taking it slow the first 16 to 20.

That said, I have run 8:00 for a full 26.2 with bad pacing and a worse build up (both from a total mileage and key workout standpoint). Recognizing that I have never negative split a race at any level, should I really go out that slow? Seems like I would be leaving some time on the table in the first 20.

As an aside, I have been closing 18 and 20 mile long runs in sub-7 pace after averaging 7:45 pace so it would seem I have something left at 7:45 pace. Counting on the taper to get me some additional miles at the end.

I'm not real impressed with the tempo runs, but nice work putting in those long runs. Your endurance will carry you through the race nicely!

I'd go out at 7:30 pace and hold that as long as you can. Maybe you can pick it up the last 5-6 miles, but if you slow down, it shouldn't be all that dramatically. I'm guessing you get under 3:15.

Alternatly, if 3:10 is an important goal for you, go ahead and run a couple of 7:30s then settle in at 7:15s for the rest of the race. You might fade more in the end, but it will give you a shot at that time.

I'm not super experienced, but that is my take. It'll be interesting to see other strategies offered.

Start as close to the front as you can to avoid crowds, but don't go out too fast (I hope that isn't a contradiction). Good luck!

I'd say run the first 2-4 miles in the 750-800 range just to be safe. Then gradually bring it down til you're at at 730 pace at around 16. Then hold that until about 2 miles to go where you could start picking it up but don't push the pace early cuz you could bonk but with 2 miles left you'd probably be fine to push the pace well under 730

I'm a good deal more optimistic than the others. I'd say you have a shot at sub three. You'll need good weather and your weight needs to be right but the only thing holding you back would be the lack of volume, all the other components are in place.

I'm even MORE optimistic than everyone else here. Your long runs and tempo runs point towards sub 2:30 being a possibility on a good day. If the weather cooperates and you feel good before the race, start with a couple 5:50s and slowly drop it down to 5:40s. Hold it right there as long as you can.

Good luck!

No way on sub three. If you can run smart (start off slow, like 7:50 to 8:00), and the weather is decent, I say you can run 3:22. Half splits would be like 1:42, 1:40.

Run the first six miles at 8:00 or just under, and then gradually pick it up. You just might feel fantastic the last six, and could actually dip down to low sevens or high sixes in the last 6.2, IF you run smart. This is exactly what I did for my second marathon, after a horrible positive split experience with my first marathon (also 3:30), and it was an awesome way to finish a marathon.

Sorry, reread some of your info. 3:22 is too slow. I'm going to say 3:16. 1:39/1:37.