Sarah Baxter 15:57 3 mile!!!....Here We Go Again

T$F Nut wrote:

You do remember what happened when Baxter raced Cain last year........don't you?

I do. Here is the vid from 2012

Great race. Cain got a bad start and Baxter got a big lead. Cain did put in a big kick at the end and was closing but was just to far behind.

Move to 2013. Looks like Baxter is getting even better! She could a 3 pete at NXN. But things can and do some times go wrong. There is all ways dark horse that could steal it. I hope Baxter does it!

But what if Cain shows up? It is all over. What went down in 2012 has nothing to do with 2013. Cain can run with the best in the world.

I don't think Cain is going to run NXN and I don't think she should. There is nothing to win.

Logic wrote:

But what if Cain shows up? It is all over. What went down in 2012 has nothing to do with 2013. Cain can run with the best in the world

.

It's all over based on what exactly? They've both improved significantly since last year. The only rational conclusion is that it's impossible to tell who would win until the race actually happens.

lsl wrote:

Logic wrote:

But what if Cain shows up? It is all over. What went down in 2012 has nothing to do with 2013. Cain can run with the best in the world

.

It's all over based on what exactly? They've both improved significantly since last year. The only rational conclusion is that it's impossible to tell who would win until the race actually happens.

Yes both Cain and Baxter have improved from the fall of 2012. But Cain has improved so much more. This is what I am basing this on.

I am a Baxter fan and she might be the GOAT of girls XC

Logic wrote:

Yes both Cain and Baxter have improved from the fall of 2012. But Cain has improved so much more. This is what I am basing this on.

I am a Baxter fan and she might be the GOAT of girls XC

Again, based on what? How has Cain improved so much more?

lsl wrote:

Logic wrote:

Yes both Cain and Baxter have improved from the fall of 2012. But Cain has improved so much more. This is what I am basing this on.

I am a Baxter fan and she might be the GOAT of girls XC

Again, based on what? How has Cain improved so much more?

On this

I am looking at Cains 5000 time on the track. 15:45.46

Well said.

looking at the records...what is up with the Metric mile and mile and Irvine high school girls?

A girl from one high school in Irvine, Woodbridge, holds the 1600 record even though it is unrecognized and another girl from a different Irvine, University High School holds the mile record - the same high school that holds the 4 x 1500 record. Is there something weird is in the water that makes super fast girl milers in Irvine?

Logic wrote:

On this

http://www.trackandfieldnews.com/index.php/records/30-records/281-womens-high-school-records

I am looking at Cains 5000 time on the track. 15:45.46

Ah you mean with rabbits and on a track? Baxter has improved (without rabbits) her 2 mile xc time by something closet to 20 seconds since she and Cain last met. That kind of improvement could easily match Cain's. There is no clear winner.

Woah! Simi should be worrying about beating 7-time defending state champs Saugus before thinking about a national title.

lsl wrote:

Logic wrote:

On this

http://www.trackandfieldnews.com/index.php/records/30-records/281-womens-high-school-records

I am looking at Cains 5000 time on the track. 15:45.46

Ah you mean with rabbits and on a track? Baxter has improved (without rabbits) her 2 mile xc time by something closet to 20 seconds since she and Cain last met. That kind of improvement could easily match Cain's. There is no clear winner.

What is Baxter's 3200 PR? 10:07? Mary Cain ran an extra mile at that pace while training for the 800/1500. On any course that is not a mud pit/bog, MC wind 9 out of 10 times

Baxter would beat Cain at Portland Meadows, Mt. SAC, Woodward Park, & Van Courtland.

I also have Saugus beating Simi Valley at Woodbridge 116-125 based off what they and Great Oak girls ran at the showdown a couple weeks ago. Obviously a rough estimate and we'll never know for sure, but I think it would be really close. Saugus, Simi Valley and a Great Oak squad at full strength could all end the FM and New York streaks at NXN this year.

Because of fans like you, I'm really starting to hate Saugus. Yes, we all know Saugus is good, but this has nothing to do with Saugus.

hold your horses wrote:

Woah! Simi should be worrying about beating 7-time defending state champs Saugus before thinking about a national title.

They pretty much have to beat Saugus (or get close) to get to Nationals, so I don't see the two as unrelated. The point was that they entered the season as US#3 with no team in the nation out of their reach, and they added two freshmen scorers to that lineup.

Ran the course as well and got 3.02 on my garmin. Times earlier in the day were much slower than usual. This class of runners is simply better than past years.

So please provide evidence on how Cain has improved so much more than Baxter in XC 5000m.

Logic wrote:

lsl wrote:

It's all over based on what exactly? They've both improved significantly since last year. The only rational conclusion is that it's impossible to tell who would win until the race actually happens.

Yes both Cain and Baxter have improved from the fall of 2012. But Cain has improved so much more. This is what I am basing this on.

I am a Baxter fan and she might be the GOAT of girls XC

i am curious wrote:

So please provide evidence on how Cain has improved so much more than Baxter in XC 5000m.

Going into last year's NXN, Cain and Baxter had very similar track 3000m / 3200m PRs.

Cain's 3000m PR was 9:28.60 from her freshman year, a time she didn't better as a sophomore.

Baxter's 3200m PR was 10:08.11, a small but meaningful improvement from the 10:13.00 she had run as a freshman.

Baxter came into 2012 NXN as the defending champ, Cain came in as the returning 6th place finisher, 18 seconds off Baxter's winning time.

At 2012 NXN, Cain moved up from 6th to 2nd and reduced her deficit to Baxter from 18 seconds to 4 seconds.

Since 2012 NXN, Cain has reduced her 3000m from 9:28.60 to 9:02.10, a 4.7% improvement. She also made a 5000m track debut in 15:45.46.

Since 2012 NXN, Baxter has improved her 3200m PR only incrementally from 10:08.11 to 10:06.74, a 0.2% improvement. She now has two XC results this fall: a 1.9M race in which she improved her time from 11:00 to 10:43, a 2.6% improvement; and a 3M race in which she improved her time from 16:12 to 15:57, a 1.5% improvement.

Bottom line: Cain improved her most relevant track PR by 4.7% and demonstrated improved range by making a 5000m track debut in a new HS girls record time. Baxter had a flat track season and has so far shown 1.5% - 2.6% improvement in her early season XC races. This evidence suggests they have both improved, but that Cain has improved more in ways that would be relevant to a 5k XC race. In no sense, however, does this evidence prove that Cain would win a rematch.

One final point: in an actual race between Cain and Baxter, Cain effectively wins all ties. In other words, if its close with a few hundred meters to go, Cain has such a big advantage in top speed, it's hard to imagine a scenario where Baxter holds her off.

Why do you people keep ignoring the facts that Cain set her PRs with rabbits for 100% of the race distance on a flat track while Baxter has not had any rabbits or any competition?

The "bottom line" is that the rabbits and flat track easily account for the small differences in percentage improvement. And you know this is true and obvious so why do you keep ignoring it?

And your final point is wrong. Cain won't have a kick if Baxter runs her hard enough. If they both have the same 5k xc ability, then Cain won't have a kick in a fast paced race.

To go point by point:

Rabbitting is helpful, but not worth more than about 1-2%. Give Baxter perfect pacing all the way to the finish and I still don't see a way she goes faster than 9:55 for 3200 / 9:15 for 3000m. Prior to last year's NXN, these two runners had very similar PRs at this distance, now they don't.

4.7% is much more than even the high end of that 1.5 - 2.6% range. A simple illustration: I take two runners with 5k PRs on a given course of 17 flat. If one improves by 4.7%, her time is now 16:12. If the other improves by 2.6%, her time is now 16:33. That's a big gap.

Baxter seems to settle in at about 5:15 - 5:20 pace. Even if she pushes a bit and gets that down to 5:10 pace, we're at the pace Cain ran for the first 4k of her 5k PR. That's a pace Cain can kick off of. I didn't actually watch the video of Cain's 5000m, but she ran the first 4000m right around 12:48, then ran the last 1000m in about 2:57. I don't think she ever went into a full kick since her last 2 laps were both around 70 - 71, but even if the claim is that she was maxed out at the end of that race, she closed only a few seconds off of Baxter's 800m PR.

And of course, if Baxter sets the pace the whole way, we're back to Cain having the advantage of running in a rabbitted race.

That's the evidence as I see it today. I hope at a minimum Cain will run one of the NYRR 5k XC races in Van Cortlandt, which would offer a point of direct comparison to an XC race she ran last year. [17:26 for 5k a few weeks before NXN].

Meanwhile, Baxter's XC season is off to a fine start and I believe Cain is trying to sort out how she wants to handle the next several years of her life. Here's hoping Baxter continues to run well and that Cain makes decisions that work out for her.

This is hurting my head.

You say rabbiting is worth 1-2%. Using YOUR OWN numbers, that shows that Baxter has improved as much as Cain since last year.

Cain: 4.7%

Baxter: 2.6%+2% = 4.6%

Are 4.7% and 4.6% not practically the same amount of change?