But what if he gets back in at 14,000 and it continues to drop to 10,000. He made the statement that the market was going much lower I believe he said into the 11,000 to 10,000 range. It would take a drastic event right now for the market to drop to the 10,000 range in the next six months (not saying it couldn't happen). So the odds for it to get back down around the 10,000 range again he will have to wait another year or two on top of the six months he has already waited. So he really is looking at 1 to 2 years of sitting out of the market counting the time he has already sat out the market.
What if the market stays flat for the next 2-3 years going between 15k and 17k. I'll still be a millionaire a few times over if the market stays flat for the next tens years just based off of reinvesting dividends. K5 would continue to sit out the market because it hasn't dropped back to where he got out making almost nothing in that time frame. Losing potentially Hundreds of thousands of dollars in dividend reinvestment.
My point is that he does not know the short term direction of the market more than anyone else. He is just guessing. If I was like him I would have missed out on an entire years salary in dividends by sitting out the market as long as he has.
I've never understood the back lash for buy and hold from some people. I've done it for 25 years now and will be a millionaire a few times over in another 10 year. I've goofed around with some throw away money over the years and did the K5 method of going by my gut feeling and I've always ALWAYS lost money.
As I said before I have a 10 year time frame so I can afford another big drop in the market before pulling my money out into safer investment vehicles. If I was only a few years a way I'd probably take a huge chunk out now because I couldn't afford the dip that is sure to come in the next year or two.
But what K5 is doing is gambling plan and simple. He is not investing he is gambling.