• Sagarin
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 1/1/2014 9:43PM - in reply to agip
      • Sagarin
      • agip wrote:
        As for the market - I just can't believe valuations will get much higher in the US - the only way I see another big year is:

        1) another stock bubble
        2) big profit surge

        lord I am hoping for the second.

        I am selling some US and buying emerging markets and cheap global countries - Ireland, Spain, Italy, Argentina, Russia, China, Israel. I can't get excited about the US at these valuations. I would guess a 6% return for 2014, but that is worth nothing.

        And with my own money I bought a 5% position in TBF - I have to believe long term interest rates will rise.
        Agree on valuations, but I think you're early. However, the public is re-engaging, so I think the clock is very much ticking. On bonds, I just can't say. I don't think organic growth is all that strong, one twice-revised (for different reasons) GDP number notwithstanding. Kind of like the one negative print in 2011.
    • Pointing Out the Obvious
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 1/2/2014 7:23AM - in reply to Pointing Out the Obvious
      • Pointing Out the Obvious
      • Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:
        Klondike5 wrote:
        If at year's end I have been proven mistaken, I will consider my next move.
        We're nearly there and it looks like K5 was mistaken. What's your next move?
        Bumping for K5's reply. We know you're reading the thread, so tell us about your next move.
    • Flagpole
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 1/2/2014 8:11AM - in reply to coach
      • Flagpole
      • coach wrote:
        if you feel this way flagpole why do you intend to work another 13 years. Why not retire sooner?
        Well, there is the little thing about money. We all make choices in life, and my wife and I did decide to have two children...they cost money. I could be retired right now (and with a good deal of money too) if we didn't decide to have children, but we did, so age 60 is the target for now. Now, if the stock market just soars (or even just does well) over the next 8-10 years, then I could bow out of the work place as soon as age 55. We'll just see.
    • Flagpole
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 1/2/2014 8:14AM - in reply to Sagarin
      • Flagpole
      • Sagarin wrote:
        You need to retake the Myers-Briggs Flagpole. No way are you an "I." I mostly agree, but I find the most enjoyment in helping and giving to people. It has it's own intrinsic rewards that no job or personal hobby can provide. Hopefully we will all do this in retirement (I am semi-retired).
        No...I am for sure an 'I'. I am very introverted in fact. I see those shows like House Hunters and people are always talking about how they need this or that to "entertain", and I always thing, "why the hell would you want to entertain?"

        I've taken that test a few times, and I always end up an ISFJ.
    • Flagpole
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 1/2/2014 8:20AM - in reply to Well there is always this
      • Flagpole
      • Well there is always this wrote:
        INCORRECT! (as usual)

        MOST people make bad decisions out of some combination of cowardice and lack of imagination. As a result MOST people choose their profession unwisely. As did you.

        Sorry, I know it is painful to look back at a decision that cannot be undone and realize that it was made primarily through COWARDICE and lack of imagination.

        And of course, your own lack of integrity, displayed so many times on these very boards, will render you unable to admit it.

        I feel for you, brother.
        Ha! Dude, I work for myself. I work in shorts and a t-shirt. I fashioned this job out of years of experience in other areas, showing both imagination and [email protected] Striking out on your own is not cowardice, brother. As perfect as this job is for the lifestyle I want to lead (I never miss a sporting event that either kid has, unless they both are competing at the same time at different locations), it's not as good as NOT working.
    • agip
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 1/2/2014 8:23AM - in reply to Flagpole
      • agip
      • Flagpole wrote:
        coach wrote:
        if you feel this way flagpole why do you intend to work another 13 years. Why not retire sooner?
        Well, there is the little thing about money. We all make choices in life, and my wife and I did decide to have two children...they cost money. I could be retired right now (and with a good deal of money too) if we didn't decide to have children, but we did, so age 60 is the target for now. Now, if the stock market just soars (or even just does well) over the next 8-10 years, then I could bow out of the work place as soon as age 55. We'll just see.
        well for me, I never want to retire. I need to have a place to go five days a week and a job to do. I am too easily distracted by cheap entertainment to be a happy retiree. And I am too introverted to gather a group of friends.

        I'm 46 - my plan is to, at around age 60, start shrinking my business to just the accounts I want to have plus my own money. I would thus shed the frustration of work but keep the good parts.

        At least that's the plan. And maybe move out of NYC.
    • Flagpole
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 1/2/2014 9:28AM - in reply to agip
      • Flagpole
      • agip wrote:
        well for me, I never want to retire. I need to have a place to go five days a week and a job to do. I am too easily distracted by cheap entertainment to be a happy retiree. And I am too introverted to gather a group of friends.

        I'm 46 - my plan is to, at around age 60, start shrinking my business to just the accounts I want to have plus my own money. I would thus shed the frustration of work but keep the good parts.

        At least that's the plan. And maybe move out of NYC.
        You are not alone in that, brother. Surveys have shown that if people were to win $10 million dollars in a lottery that fully two-thirds of them say they would continue working. Personally I don't understand that, but I do recognize that many people NEED that...I'm just not one of them.
    • K5
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 1/2/2014 11:07AM - in reply to Pointing Out the Obvious
      • K5
      • Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:
        Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:
        Klondike5 wrote:
        If at year's end I have been proven mistaken, I will consider my next move.
        We're nearly there and it looks like K5 was mistaken. What's your next move?
        Bumping for K5's reply. We know you're reading the thread, so tell us about your next move.
        Staying out for now
    • dumb
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 1/2/2014 3:01PM - in reply to
      • dumb
      • ^^^ He missed out on huge capital gains as well as dividends if he sat out calendar year 2013. It was an unusually good year to be certain, and I won't mince the exact math, but sitting out on say, 7% gains plus dividends for the right to say I Told You So when there is a 5% correction is a bad move.
    • Bigfoot Investments
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 1/2/2014 3:10PM - in reply to dumb
      • Bigfoot Investments
      • dumb wrote:
        ^^^ He missed out on huge capital gains as well as dividends if he sat out calendar year 2013. It was an unusually good year to be certain, and I won't mince the exact math, but sitting out on say, 7% gains plus dividends for the right to say I Told You So when there is a 5% correction is a bad move.
        You seem to have missed the part where he said he got out in June at around 15,000. If he then gets back in at 14,000 he will be better off having sat out in the interim regardless of ups and downs between when he got out and when he gets back in. This, of course assumes that it takes less than five years or so to get back down to 14,000 - but note that the person that I responded to was specifically talking about 14,000 in the next six months.

        Please try to make sense.
    • hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 1/2/2014 4:43PM - in reply to Bigfoot Investments
      • hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
      • Bigfoot Investments wrote:
        dumb wrote:
        ^^^ He missed out on huge capital gains as well as dividends if he sat out calendar year 2013. It was an unusually good year to be certain, and I won't mince the exact math, but sitting out on say, 7% gains plus dividends for the right to say I Told You So when there is a 5% correction is a bad move.
        You seem to have missed the part where he said he got out in June at around 15,000. If he then gets back in at 14,000 he will be better off having sat out in the interim regardless of ups and downs between when he got out and when he gets back in. This, of course assumes that it takes less than five years or so to get back down to 14,000 - but note that the person that I responded to was specifically talking about 14,000 in the next six months.

        Please try to make sense.
        But what if he gets back in at 14,000 and it continues to drop to 10,000. He made the statement that the market was going much lower I believe he said into the 11,000 to 10,000 range. It would take a drastic event right now for the market to drop to the 10,000 range in the next six months (not saying it couldn't happen). So the odds for it to get back down around the 10,000 range again he will have to wait another year or two on top of the six months he has already waited. So he really is looking at 1 to 2 years of sitting out of the market counting the time he has already sat out the market.

        What if the market stays flat for the next 2-3 years going between 15k and 17k. I'll still be a millionaire a few times over if the market stays flat for the next tens years just based off of reinvesting dividends. K5 would continue to sit out the market because it hasn't dropped back to where he got out making almost nothing in that time frame. Losing potentially Hundreds of thousands of dollars in dividend reinvestment.

        My point is that he does not know the short term direction of the market more than anyone else. He is just guessing. If I was like him I would have missed out on an entire years salary in dividends by sitting out the market as long as he has.

        I've never understood the back lash for buy and hold from some people. I've done it for 25 years now and will be a millionaire a few times over in another 10 year. I've goofed around with some throw away money over the years and did the K5 method of going by my gut feeling and I've always ALWAYS lost money.

        As I said before I have a 10 year time frame so I can afford another big drop in the market before pulling my money out into safer investment vehicles. If I was only a few years a way I'd probably take a huge chunk out now because I couldn't afford the dip that is sure to come in the next year or two.

        But what K5 is doing is gambling plan and simple. He is not investing he is gambling.
    • Market Analyst
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 1/2/2014 7:42PM - in reply to hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
      • Market Analyst
      • hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm wrote:
        What if the market stays flat for the next 2-3 years going between 15k and 17k. I'll still be a millionaire a few times over if the market stays flat for the next tens years just based off of reinvesting dividends. K5 would continue to sit out the market because it hasn't dropped back to where he got out making almost nothing in that time frame. Losing potentially Hundreds of thousands of dollars in dividend reinvestment.

        I've never understood the back lash for buy and hold from some people. I've done it for 25 years now and will be a millionaire a few times over in another 10 year. I've goofed around with some throw away money over the years and did the K5 method of going by my gut feeling and I've always ALWAYS lost money.
        I've got news for ya fellow, no one is going to be a millionaire after the next market correction. Yes, it WILL be that bad.
    • hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 1/2/2014 7:55PM - in reply to Market Analyst
      • hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
      • Market Analyst wrote:
        hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm wrote:
        What if the market stays flat for the next 2-3 years going between 15k and 17k. I'll still be a millionaire a few times over if the market stays flat for the next tens years just based off of reinvesting dividends. K5 would continue to sit out the market because it hasn't dropped back to where he got out making almost nothing in that time frame. Losing potentially Hundreds of thousands of dollars in dividend reinvestment.

        I've never understood the back lash for buy and hold from some people. I've done it for 25 years now and will be a millionaire a few times over in another 10 year. I've goofed around with some throw away money over the years and did the K5 method of going by my gut feeling and I've always ALWAYS lost money.
        I've got news for ya fellow, no one is going to be a millionaire after the next market correction. Yes, it WILL be that bad.
        People have been saying that since I started investing. Nothing new there.

        If the next market correction is so bad that I lose all of my retirement and never gain it back then America has way WAY more to worry about than money and then any money I lost want mater anyways.
    • Pointing Out the Obvious
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 1/2/2014 9:32PM - in reply to
      • Pointing Out the Obvious
      • Bigfoot Investments wrote:
        According to my calculator, a dip from around 15,000 (I believe that this is what K5 claims to have been his exit point) to 14,000 is a drop of 9.3%.
        Your calculator is broken.
    • Bigfoot Investments
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 1/3/2014 10:56AM - in reply to Pointing Out the Obvious
      • Bigfoot Investments
      • Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:
        Bigfoot Investments wrote:
        According to my calculator, a dip from around 15,000 (I believe that this is what K5 claims to have been his exit point) to 14,000 is a drop of 9.3%.
        Your calculator is broken.
        You are mistaken. But I guess that was obvious.
    • Bigfoot Investments
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 1/3/2014 12:03PM - in reply to Bigfoot Investments
      • Bigfoot Investments
      • Bigfoot Investments wrote:
        Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:
        Bigfoot Investments wrote:
        According to my calculator, a dip from around 15,000 (I believe that this is what K5 claims to have been his exit point) to 14,000 is a drop of 9.3%.
        Your calculator is broken.
        You are mistaken. But I guess that was obvious.
        Ooops. I was mistaken. And YOU were correct. It is a drop of around 6.7%. (Note to self: That'll teach me to stop over-relying on calculators - as I've taught my kids over and over again)

        This does not change the overall picture in any significant manner.

        Cheers.
    • Pointing Out the Obvious
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 1/3/2014 12:43PM - in reply to Bigfoot Investments
      • Pointing Out the Obvious
      • Bigfoot Investments wrote:
        Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:
        Bigfoot Investments wrote:
        According to my calculator, a dip from around 15,000 (I believe that this is what K5 claims to have been his exit point) to 14,000 is a drop of 9.3%.
        Your calculator is broken.
        You are mistaken. But I guess that was obvious.
        You are a moron. But I guess that was obvious.
    • Bigfoot Investments
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 1/3/2014 1:41PM - in reply to agip
      • Bigfoot Investments
      • agip wrote:
        real bigfoot - why are you bothering with this? sheesh.

        Unless you are BOTH fake bigfeet. that would be a new low for lrc.
        Hey agip.

        Thanks for asking.

        If you mean why did I make a correction when my error was pointed out - Of course it was trivial but I do think that admitting one's errors is important to anyone with integrity.

        If you mean why did I keep re-posting the same post multiple times after the imposter had it deleted - Naturally this particular post was not of any great importance. What is of importance, at least insofar as anything on a message board is of importance, is that those who bother to register their handles and therefore can be held to account for their words (to some extent) should at the very least be able to NOT have their legitimate posts deleted (especially while the posts of an imposter are left to stand).

        I have since taken action that should leave my post above to stand on this thread. The imposter (as with all such impostors) lacks all integrity. But I have been led to believe that he will not be able to delete my post again (I can assure you that he has most certainly tried by this time).
    • Pointing Out the Obvious
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 1/4/2014 6:25AM - in reply to Bigfoot Investments
      • Pointing Out the Obvious
      • Bigfoot Investments wrote:
        Ooops. I was mistaken. And YOU were correct. It is a drop of around 6.7%. (Note to self: That'll teach me to stop over-relying on calculators - as I've taught my kids over and over again)
        How was this the calculators fault?