Down goes the Dow

Non-Running Finance/Jobs

Report Thread

You are reporting this thread to the moderators for review and possible removal from the forum.
Optional
Reply
  • Sagarin
    registered
    6 years ago 01/01/2014 9:43pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    agip wrote:

    As for the market - I just can't believe valuations will get much higher in the US - the only way I see another big year is:

    1) another stock bubble
    2) big profit surge

    lord I am hoping for the second.

    I am selling some US and buying emerging markets and cheap global countries - Ireland, Spain, Italy, Argentina, Russia, China, Israel. I can't get excited about the US at these valuations. I would guess a 6% return for 2014, but that is worth nothing.

    And with my own money I bought a 5% position in TBF - I have to believe long term interest rates will rise.

    Agree on valuations, but I think you're early. However, the public is re-engaging, so I think the clock is very much ticking. On bonds, I just can't say. I don't think organic growth is all that strong, one twice-revised (for different reasons) GDP number notwithstanding. Kind of like the one negative print in 2011.
  • Pointing Out the Obvious
    6 years ago 01/02/2014 7:23am CST
    re: Pointing Out the Obvious
    Forum Index
    Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

    Klondike5 wrote:

    If at year's end I have been proven mistaken, I will consider my next move.

    We're nearly there and it looks like K5 was mistaken. What's your next move?


    Bumping for K5's reply. We know you're reading the thread, so tell us about your next move.
  • Flagpole
    registered
    6 years ago 01/02/2014 8:11am CST
    re: coach
    Forum Index
    coach wrote:

    if you feel this way flagpole why do you intend to work another 13 years. Why not retire sooner?

    Well, there is the little thing about money. We all make choices in life, and my wife and I did decide to have two children...they cost money. I could be retired right now (and with a good deal of money too) if we didn't decide to have children, but we did, so age 60 is the target for now. Now, if the stock market just soars (or even just does well) over the next 8-10 years, then I could bow out of the work place as soon as age 55. We'll just see.
  • Flagpole
    registered
    6 years ago 01/02/2014 8:14am CST
    re: Sagarin
    Forum Index
    Sagarin wrote:

    You need to retake the Myers-Briggs Flagpole. No way are you an "I." I mostly agree, but I find the most enjoyment in helping and giving to people. It has it's own intrinsic rewards that no job or personal hobby can provide. Hopefully we will all do this in retirement (I am semi-retired).

    No...I am for sure an 'I'. I am very introverted in fact. I see those shows like House Hunters and people are always talking about how they need this or that to "entertain", and I always thing, "why the hell would you want to entertain?"

    I've taken that test a few times, and I always end up an ISFJ.
  • Flagpole
    registered
    6 years ago 01/02/2014 8:20am CST
    re: Well there is always this
    Forum Index
    Well there is always this wrote:

    INCORRECT! (as usual)

    MOST people make bad decisions out of some combination of cowardice and lack of imagination. As a result MOST people choose their profession unwisely. As did you.

    Sorry, I know it is painful to look back at a decision that cannot be undone and realize that it was made primarily through COWARDICE and lack of imagination.

    And of course, your own lack of integrity, displayed so many times on these very boards, will render you unable to admit it.

    I feel for you, brother.

    Ha! Dude, I work for myself. I work in shorts and a t-shirt. I fashioned this job out of years of experience in other areas, showing both imagination and [email protected] Striking out on your own is not cowardice, brother. As perfect as this job is for the lifestyle I want to lead (I never miss a sporting event that either kid has, unless they both are competing at the same time at different locations), it's not as good as NOT working.
  • agip
    registered
    6 years ago 01/02/2014 8:23am CST
    re: Flagpole
    Forum Index
    Flagpole wrote:

    coach wrote:

    if you feel this way flagpole why do you intend to work another 13 years. Why not retire sooner?

    Well, there is the little thing about money. We all make choices in life, and my wife and I did decide to have two children...they cost money. I could be retired right now (and with a good deal of money too) if we didn't decide to have children, but we did, so age 60 is the target for now. Now, if the stock market just soars (or even just does well) over the next 8-10 years, then I could bow out of the work place as soon as age 55. We'll just see.


    well for me, I never want to retire. I need to have a place to go five days a week and a job to do. I am too easily distracted by cheap entertainment to be a happy retiree. And I am too introverted to gather a group of friends.

    I'm 46 - my plan is to, at around age 60, start shrinking my business to just the accounts I want to have plus my own money. I would thus shed the frustration of work but keep the good parts.

    At least that's the plan. And maybe move out of NYC.
  • Flagpole
    registered
    6 years ago 01/02/2014 9:28am CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    agip wrote:

    well for me, I never want to retire. I need to have a place to go five days a week and a job to do. I am too easily distracted by cheap entertainment to be a happy retiree. And I am too introverted to gather a group of friends.

    I'm 46 - my plan is to, at around age 60, start shrinking my business to just the accounts I want to have plus my own money. I would thus shed the frustration of work but keep the good parts.

    At least that's the plan. And maybe move out of NYC.

    You are not alone in that, brother. Surveys have shown that if people were to win $10 million dollars in a lottery that fully two-thirds of them say they would continue working. Personally I don't understand that, but I do recognize that many people NEED that...I'm just not one of them.
  • K5
    6 years ago 01/02/2014 11:07am CST
    re: Pointing Out the Obvious
    Forum Index
    Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

    Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

    Klondike5 wrote:

    If at year's end I have been proven mistaken, I will consider my next move.

    We're nearly there and it looks like K5 was mistaken. What's your next move?


    Bumping for K5's reply. We know you're reading the thread, so tell us about your next move.


    Staying out for now
  • dumb
    6 years ago 01/02/2014 3:01pm CST
    Forum Index

    ^^^ He missed out on huge capital gains as well as dividends if he sat out calendar year 2013. It was an unusually good year to be certain, and I won't mince the exact math, but sitting out on say, 7% gains plus dividends for the right to say I Told You So when there is a 5% correction is a bad move.
  • Bigfoot Investments
    registered
    6 years ago 01/02/2014 3:10pm CST
    re: dumb
    Forum Index
    dumb wrote:

    ^^^ He missed out on huge capital gains as well as dividends if he sat out calendar year 2013. It was an unusually good year to be certain, and I won't mince the exact math, but sitting out on say, 7% gains plus dividends for the right to say I Told You So when there is a 5% correction is a bad move.

    You seem to have missed the part where he said he got out in June at around 15,000. If he then gets back in at 14,000 he will be better off having sat out in the interim regardless of ups and downs between when he got out and when he gets back in. This, of course assumes that it takes less than five years or so to get back down to 14,000 - but note that the person that I responded to was specifically talking about 14,000 in the next six months.

    Please try to make sense.
  • hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
    6 years ago 01/02/2014 4:43pm CST
    re: Bigfoot Investments
    Forum Index
    Bigfoot Investments wrote:

    dumb wrote:

    ^^^ He missed out on huge capital gains as well as dividends if he sat out calendar year 2013. It was an unusually good year to be certain, and I won't mince the exact math, but sitting out on say, 7% gains plus dividends for the right to say I Told You So when there is a 5% correction is a bad move.

    You seem to have missed the part where he said he got out in June at around 15,000. If he then gets back in at 14,000 he will be better off having sat out in the interim regardless of ups and downs between when he got out and when he gets back in. This, of course assumes that it takes less than five years or so to get back down to 14,000 - but note that the person that I responded to was specifically talking about 14,000 in the next six months.

    Please try to make sense.


    But what if he gets back in at 14,000 and it continues to drop to 10,000. He made the statement that the market was going much lower I believe he said into the 11,000 to 10,000 range. It would take a drastic event right now for the market to drop to the 10,000 range in the next six months (not saying it couldn't happen). So the odds for it to get back down around the 10,000 range again he will have to wait another year or two on top of the six months he has already waited. So he really is looking at 1 to 2 years of sitting out of the market counting the time he has already sat out the market.

    What if the market stays flat for the next 2-3 years going between 15k and 17k. I'll still be a millionaire a few times over if the market stays flat for the next tens years just based off of reinvesting dividends. K5 would continue to sit out the market because it hasn't dropped back to where he got out making almost nothing in that time frame. Losing potentially Hundreds of thousands of dollars in dividend reinvestment.

    My point is that he does not know the short term direction of the market more than anyone else. He is just guessing. If I was like him I would have missed out on an entire years salary in dividends by sitting out the market as long as he has.

    I've never understood the back lash for buy and hold from some people. I've done it for 25 years now and will be a millionaire a few times over in another 10 year. I've goofed around with some throw away money over the years and did the K5 method of going by my gut feeling and I've always ALWAYS lost money.

    As I said before I have a 10 year time frame so I can afford another big drop in the market before pulling my money out into safer investment vehicles. If I was only a few years a way I'd probably take a huge chunk out now because I couldn't afford the dip that is sure to come in the next year or two.

    But what K5 is doing is gambling plan and simple. He is not investing he is gambling.
  • Market Analyst
    6 years ago 01/02/2014 7:42pm CST
    re: hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
    Forum Index
    hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm wrote:

    What if the market stays flat for the next 2-3 years going between 15k and 17k. I'll still be a millionaire a few times over if the market stays flat for the next tens years just based off of reinvesting dividends. K5 would continue to sit out the market because it hasn't dropped back to where he got out making almost nothing in that time frame. Losing potentially Hundreds of thousands of dollars in dividend reinvestment.

    I've never understood the back lash for buy and hold from some people. I've done it for 25 years now and will be a millionaire a few times over in another 10 year. I've goofed around with some throw away money over the years and did the K5 method of going by my gut feeling and I've always ALWAYS lost money.

    I've got news for ya fellow, no one is going to be a millionaire after the next market correction. Yes, it WILL be that bad.
  • hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
    6 years ago 01/02/2014 7:55pm CST
    re: Market Analyst
    Forum Index
    Market Analyst wrote:

    hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm wrote:

    What if the market stays flat for the next 2-3 years going between 15k and 17k. I'll still be a millionaire a few times over if the market stays flat for the next tens years just based off of reinvesting dividends. K5 would continue to sit out the market because it hasn't dropped back to where he got out making almost nothing in that time frame. Losing potentially Hundreds of thousands of dollars in dividend reinvestment.

    I've never understood the back lash for buy and hold from some people. I've done it for 25 years now and will be a millionaire a few times over in another 10 year. I've goofed around with some throw away money over the years and did the K5 method of going by my gut feeling and I've always ALWAYS lost money.

    I've got news for ya fellow, no one is going to be a millionaire after the next market correction. Yes, it WILL be that bad.



    People have been saying that since I started investing. Nothing new there.

    If the next market correction is so bad that I lose all of my retirement and never gain it back then America has way WAY more to worry about than money and then any money I lost want mater anyways.
  • Pointing Out the Obvious
    6 years ago 01/02/2014 9:32pm CST
    Forum Index
    Bigfoot Investments wrote:

    According to my calculator, a dip from around 15,000 (I believe that this is what K5 claims to have been his exit point) to 14,000 is a drop of 9.3%.

    Your calculator is broken.
  • Bigfoot Investments
    registered
    6 years ago 01/03/2014 10:56am CST
    re: Pointing Out the Obvious
    Forum Index
    Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

    Bigfoot Investments wrote:

    According to my calculator, a dip from around 15,000 (I believe that this is what K5 claims to have been his exit point) to 14,000 is a drop of 9.3%.

    Your calculator is broken.


    You are mistaken. But I guess that was obvious.
  • Bigfoot Investments
    registered
    6 years ago 01/03/2014 12:03pm CST
    re: Bigfoot Investments
    Forum Index
    Bigfoot Investments wrote:

    Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

    Bigfoot Investments wrote:

    According to my calculator, a dip from around 15,000 (I believe that this is what K5 claims to have been his exit point) to 14,000 is a drop of 9.3%.

    Your calculator is broken.


    You are mistaken. But I guess that was obvious.


    Ooops. I was mistaken. And YOU were correct. It is a drop of around 6.7%. (Note to self: That'll teach me to stop over-relying on calculators - as I've taught my kids over and over again)

    This does not change the overall picture in any significant manner.

    Cheers.
  • Pointing Out the Obvious
    6 years ago 01/03/2014 12:43pm CST
    re: Bigfoot Investments
    Forum Index
    Bigfoot Investments wrote:

    Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

    Bigfoot Investments wrote:

    According to my calculator, a dip from around 15,000 (I believe that this is what K5 claims to have been his exit point) to 14,000 is a drop of 9.3%.

    Your calculator is broken.


    You are mistaken. But I guess that was obvious.


    You are a moron. But I guess that was obvious.
  • agip
    registered
    6 years ago 01/03/2014 12:46pm CST
    re: Bigfoot Investments
    Forum Index

    real bigfoot - why are you bothering with this? sheesh.

    Unless you are BOTH fake bigfeet. that would be a new low for lrc.
  • Bigfoot Investments
    registered
    6 years ago 01/03/2014 1:41pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    agip wrote:

    real bigfoot - why are you bothering with this? sheesh.

    Unless you are BOTH fake bigfeet. that would be a new low for lrc.

    Hey agip.

    Thanks for asking.

    If you mean why did I make a correction when my error was pointed out - Of course it was trivial but I do think that admitting one's errors is important to anyone with integrity.

    If you mean why did I keep re-posting the same post multiple times after the imposter had it deleted - Naturally this particular post was not of any great importance. What is of importance, at least insofar as anything on a message board is of importance, is that those who bother to register their handles and therefore can be held to account for their words (to some extent) should at the very least be able to NOT have their legitimate posts deleted (especially while the posts of an imposter are left to stand).

    I have since taken action that should leave my post above to stand on this thread. The imposter (as with all such impostors) lacks all integrity. But I have been led to believe that he will not be able to delete my post again (I can assure you that he has most certainly tried by this time).
  • Pointing Out the Obvious
    6 years ago 01/04/2014 6:25am CST
    re: Bigfoot Investments
    Forum Index
    Bigfoot Investments wrote:

    Ooops. I was mistaken. And YOU were correct. It is a drop of around 6.7%. (Note to self: That'll teach me to stop over-relying on calculators - as I've taught my kids over and over again)

    How was this the calculators fault?
Advertisement: