Down goes the Dow

agip wrote:

Sagarin wrote:

As part of the budget negotiations, four million Americans will not see their extended unemployment benefits renewed, so you should expect even more downward pressure on the unemployment rate as most of these people will no longer "count" as part of the labor force.

or I daresay that people will be forced to get jobs when their unemployment benefits run out...which would also help lower the unemployment rate.

You can say that, but then that would make sound like you're affiliated with the GOP. Some of them will get some type of job, no doubt, probably not great ones as they have been unemployed for so long, but I suspect the vast majority won't. But the "unemployment rate" will likely improve either way.

Today's the day! The Dow has been down in recent dates, but still way ahead of where it was in June. I'm looking forward to seeing agip's report.

Greta wrote:

Thanks for making my point. I'm out.

Earth to Greta.

Hey coach D, I'm not going to disagree with you about corporate profits, and I'm glad you changed your former market "peak" from 15,000 to 20,000, as I said the Fed could drive us to stratospheric highs, though I'm not sure we get there. The thing is, if hiring really is happening the way it purportedly is, companies will need to maintain top line growth as margins will be squeezed. Personally, I think we are very overvalued, but I don't doubt a classic parabolic melt-up, and it's very difficult to bet against that scenario.

I think Hussman will be proven right, even as he has and. likely, will continue to be:

"The stock market is presently at valuations where not only cyclical but secular bear markets have started. A secular bear period comprises a series of cyclical bull-bear periods where valuations gradually work their way lower at each successive cyclical trough. The past 13 years of paltry overall total returns for the S&P 500 have unfortunately corrected very little of the excess in 2000, largely thanks to yet another round of Fed-enabled speculation. We should have learned how these episodes end. At least in 2000 investors had not seen that ending, and even in 2007, the point had not been driven home. There is no excuse today, at least not if one distinguishes between measures that have provided reliable guidance about actual subsequent market returns over the past century, and those that - despite their popular appeal - have not. Though valuations for the S&P 500 are not as rich as 2000 on most measures, valuations for the median stock actually exceed the 2000 peak. From the standpoint of a century of market history, equity valuations are obscene."

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc131209.htmhttp://www.gurufocus.com/news/210239/how-should-we-look-at-john-hussmans-performance-numbers

Corrected:

Sagarin -

I'll listen to Hussman on bonds...but not stocks.

It basically takes a 50% collapse in the stock market to get those guys interested at all in stocks. they have been wrongly bearish on stocks for so long that I'm not sure why they deserve any attention.

This, from Dec 2009, with the SPX at 1100, around 62% lower:

From current valuations, durable market returns appear very unlikely. As I noted last week, whatever merit there might be in stocks is decidedly speculative. That doesn't mean that the returns must be (or even over the very short term, are likely to be) negative. What it does mean is that whatever returns emerge are unlikely to be durably positive. Market gains from these levels will most probably be given back, possibly very abruptly.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc091221.htm

yes, we could drop 60% from here and then those results will indeed have been proved not 'durable.' but listening to them on stocks would have ended many careers and destroyed much wealth.

or put another way:

Average Annual Total Returns

for periods ended

11/30/13

1 Year -7.21%

3 Year -7.41%

5 Year -2.96%

10 Year -0.59%

that's their strategic growth fund - stocks.

the vanguard total stock market index is up 7.94% avge annual return for the same 10 years.

I'm not saying you believe in their stock prediction ability either - I'm just pointing out how wrong they have been so we can evaluate their current stock market advice accordingly.

ahem.

I just looked at the link you posted about hussman's returns - I should really read your posts more carefully b4 I respond. I see you acknowldge recent miserable returns and say that he has been wrong recently.

never mind.

K5 wrote:

hmmmmmmmmmmmm wrote:

That's real funny coming from you. At least Apip pastes a link where he got his information.

Its a rare moment in letsrun history when you actual post a link to your information. Its like you have something to hide..

Why the eff would I feel I need to provide links just because a lowbrow like you demands one?

hahaha that's what I thought. Still waiting on the link.

K5 wrote:

Greta wrote:

That's the point. It would be nice to get something verifiable from you.

The constant demands for links is just a tactic to avoid talking about the content. I usually tell people where stuff came from and they could look it up if they were interested in the facts. They only make this demand when the material contradicts the beliefs that have been implanted in them by the system

If it is so easy to find then it should be easy to paste the link.

Until you do no one will take you seriously.

Once again Agip has more creadibility than you because he actually post the links to his information thus people can look at the information themselves and decided if its valid.

You on the other hand just want us to take your word for it.

What are you afraid of? Paste the links.

But me and you both know where the links come from and that is why you want paste them in your message. hahaha

ookay...

on 9/12 klondike5 suggested we wait 3 months to see if his bet was correct.

Now it is 12/12 so we can look at his returns.

Two sets of numbers: from when the thread started and on 9/12 These numbers include dividends.

Dow:

since thread started: +6.3%

since 9/12: +2.9%

Global Stocks (ticker VT) (since the Dow is not a true index of the market)

since thread started: +8.5%

since 9/12: 3.7%

So the last week has been good for the bears, but still we have had a very robust rally since he started the thread.

So since K5 claims to have pulled out several hundred thousand, we can safely assume he missed out on an opportunity to increase his holdings by $35K or more. Ouch!

agip wrote:

ookay...

on 9/12 klondike5 suggested we wait 3 months to see if his bet was correct.

Now it is 12/12 so we can look at his returns.

Didn't in that same post he say something to the effect of "...at the end of the year...".

I'm not defending the guy. But it is comical how you selectively read posts. And how you've been falling all over yourself to post updates to declare him incorrect....less than a month into this thread starting... even daily at times.

Almost like you are uncomfortable with the likelihood of him ending up correct if you give him too much time, or just sit back and wait. So, you are on the attack like a pitbull. Nah, I'm sure you'll come up with some other rationalization for your actions.

Pete & Repeat were on a boat wrote:

agip wrote:

ookay...

on 9/12 klondike5 suggested we wait 3 months to see if his bet was correct.

Now it is 12/12 so we can look at his returns.

Didn't in that same post he say something to the effect of "...at the end of the year...".

I'm not defending the guy. But it is comical how you selectively read posts. And how you've been falling all over yourself to post updates to declare him incorrect....less than a month into this thread starting... even daily at times.

Almost like you are uncomfortable with the likelihood of him ending up correct if you give him too much time, or just sit back and wait. So, you are on the attack like a pitbull. Nah, I'm sure you'll come up with some other rationalization for your actions.

he and I are enemies. So yes, I am aggressively posting against him.

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm wrote:

But me and you both know where the links come from and that is why you want paste them in your message. hahaha

If you know "where the links come from", who do you ask for them?

Can't hardly wait wrote:

So since K5 claims to have pulled out several hundred thousand, we can safely assume he missed out on an opportunity to increase his holdings by $35K or more. Ouch!

A missed potential gain that is not overly significant.

I also foolishly took my money out of equities in 2008 and avoided losses in excess of $300k.

agip wrote:

he and I are enemies. So yes, I am aggressively posting against him.

No. You are just an ineffective a$$hole, not my enemy

I look forward to the day when you post something worthwhile. I'm not holding my breath.

K5 wrote:

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm wrote:

But me and you both know where the links come from and that is why you want paste them in your message. hahaha

If you know "where the links come from", who do you ask for them?

Because I'm trying to get you to admit that most of your information comes from crazy hack job sites like prison planet, conspiracy watch, and stormfront.

You want paste the links because you know everyone would see that everything you quote is taken out of context and they would laugh you right off the site.

So once again please paste the links to your information so people can at least attempt to take your seriously.

But you want so people will continue to look at you like a joke.